A strong low pressure system moved north across Middle Tennessee. The extremely tight pressure gradient between this low and an area of high pressure over the eastern seaboard caused powerful, damaging southeast winds to blow across the Southern Appalachian Mountains affecting this mountain chain and the adjacent foothills in the Great Valley.
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The episode as NWS MRX wrote it up.
A strong low pressure system moved north across Middle Tennessee. The extremely tight pressure gradient between this low and an area of high pressure over the eastern seaboard caused powerful, damaging southeast winds to blow across the Southern Appalachian Mountains affecting this mountain chain and the adjacent foothills in the Great Valley.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 29, 8:45 PM EST, 1 hour 15 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
845 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PRODUCING A COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO OVER THE CAROLINAS.
THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WAS
PRODUCING A STRONG 850 MB JET (AROUND 50 KT) OVER THE REGION...WHICH
IS PROGGED TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN UP TO AROUND 70 TO 75 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EARLIER OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA WIND TOWER AT CAMP
CREEK IN SOUTHEAST GREENE COUNTY REPORTED WIND GUSTS UP TO 74 MPH...
WITH THE COVE MOUNTAIN WIND TOWER IN THE NATIONAL PARK REPORTING
WIND GUSTS UP TO 54 MPH. EARLIER SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED SOME
NARROW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER PARALLEL WITH THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS DUE TO MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY...BUT CURRENT IMAGERY
SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS OBSCURING THESE NARROW BREAKS. OVERALL...HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAIN AND THEIR IMMEDIATE FOOTHILLS APPEARS TO BE
ON TRACK...AND EXPECT THESE WINDS TO FURTHER INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT
WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 80 OR 90 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME BREEZY IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE
ADVISORY-CRITERIA WINDS (IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH) MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SOME OF STRONGER SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO PULL
DOWN SOME OF THE STRONG 850 MB WINDS INTO THE VALLEY AREAS.
AREA RADARS REVEAL A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT THINK THAT DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THUS...WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY OCCUR
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST NC (WITH STORM TOTALS OF
TWO TO THREE INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT)...WILL NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE
RELATIVELY HIGH (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) AND THIS RAINFALL SHOULD
OCCUR OVER SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...WILL PLAN TO MENTION 'RAINFALL
MAY HEAVY AT TIMES' WORDING IN THE FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TN LATER
TONIGHT...SO WILL PLAN TO MENTION SOME TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THESE AREAS. WILL ALSO PLAN TO MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE TEMP FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT DUE TO THE LATEST TRENDS.
ON TUESDAY...AM BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED WITH THE PROSPECTS
FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTER SUNRISE HOURS OF THE MORNING. NAM
MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH MAY ONLY RESULT IN A LINE OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG 850 MB JET (AROUND
60 TO 70 KT) IN PLACE AND THE LOW-LEVEL STABLE LAYER EXPECTED TO
HAVE ERODED AWAY AFTER SUNRISE...THINK THAT SOME OF THESE UPPER-
LEVEL STRONG WINDS MAY BE PULLED DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH THESE
SHOWERS. ALSO...WITH SUCH STRONG WIND DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
(RESULTING IN HIGH HELICITY VALUES)...EVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
MINOR INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS POSSIBILITY OF SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
APPEARS TO MAINLY BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TN DURING LATE MORNING HOURS.
WILL PLAN TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
AND IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL ALSO PLAN TO MAKE SOME
CHANGES TO THE TEMP FORECAST FOR TOMORROW...SINCE THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE GREAT TN VALLEY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 48 60 32 45 27 / 100 100 60 10 0
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 47 68 33 42 25 / 80 100 70 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 47 60 33 43 25 / 80 100 60 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 46 64 36 40 20 / 50 100 100 30 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
CHEROKEE...CLAY.
TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
JOHNSON...MCMINN...NW BLOUNT...NORTH SEVIER...NORTHWEST
CARTER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST GREENE...NORTHWEST
MONROE...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...
SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...SULLIVAN...UNICOI...
WASHINGTON TN.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BLEDSOE...BRADLEY...EAST POLK...GRAINGER...
HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...JEFFERSON...KNOX...LOUDON...MARION...
MEIGS...RHEA...ROANE...SEQUATCHIE...WEST POLK.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ANDERSON...CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...HANCOCK...HAWKINS...
MORGAN...SCOTT TN...UNION.
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: RUSSELL...WASHINGTON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LEE...SCOTT...WISE.
&&
DMGHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 835 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-006-008-301000- CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS- SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN- NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE- SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER- SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT- BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS- SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE- SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE- WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON- 835 PM EST (735 PM CST) MON NOV 29 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT...WITH THESE HIGH WINDS ALSO AFFECTING THE FOOTHILLS DUE TO MOUNTAIN WAVES. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS PULL THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN INTO THE VALLEY AREAS. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE SEE THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT (MEMNPWMRX). .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH ANY LINE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT POSSIBLY PULLING THESE VERY STRONG WINDS DOWN INTO THE VALLEY AREAS. ANOTHER CONCERN INVOLVES THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE...SINCE THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY ROTATE AND COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES... MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS...SOME AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DAMAGING WIND REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS. DMG
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 926 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>016-035>039-067>070-081>084-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-301100- CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-MORGAN- ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON- SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK- EAST POLK-LEE-WISE-SCOTT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...ONEIDA... LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...WARTBURG... CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN... KINGSTON...LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...DUNLAP... PIKEVILLE...DAYTON...DECATUR...JASPER...CHATTANOOGA...CLEVELAND... BENTON...DUCKTOWN...JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY 926 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010 /826 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010/ ...A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL CREATE A VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...AND THEIR IMMEDIATE FOOTHILLS DUE TO MOUNTAIN WAVES. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MAY PULL SOME OF THESE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DOWN INTO THE VALLEY AREAS...BUT ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER CONCERN INVOLVES THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY...SINCE THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY ROTATE AND COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS...SOME AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RESIDENT OF EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA ARE ADVISED TO STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET...FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES ON THIS POWERFUL SYSTEM. DMG
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Power lines were downed when a tree fell onto a mobile home between Rosedale and Belfast.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2010Every state in 2010This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, November 2010
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 265250.