On Tuesday November 30th, a strong low pressure system with a abundant moisture and strong winds moved into the TN and OH valleys. The drenching rains caused the major rivers in the area to rise to above flood levels.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
On Tuesday November 30th, a strong low pressure system with a abundant moisture and strong winds moved into the TN and OH valleys. The drenching rains caused the major rivers in the area to rise to above flood levels. This prompted Flood warnings across the area that lasted into December the 2nd. The front also had strong synoptic winds that prompted the need for a wind advisory on the 29th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 29, 7:35 AM EST, 2 hours 25 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 735 AM EST MON NOV 29 2010 .SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ FOCUS OF THE PERIOD HAS BECOME THE DEVELOPING TROF AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN GREAT PLAINS THIS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO GEL ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM AND A GENERIC BLEND OF THE SUITE LENDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. OVERALL...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE GOING FORECAST. INITIAL CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD BEGIN TO ARISE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING TROF STRENGTHENS AND A ROBUST SOUTHERLY LLJ IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE BROUGHT SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE 925 LEVEL AND EXPECT THAT SOME OF THIS WILL TRANSFER TO THE LOWER LEVELS EASILY ENOUGH. HAVE WRESTLED WITH WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE WARNING LEVEL WINDS LOCALLY...AND HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY FOR NOW OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. ATTM...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT THREAT LOOK TO BEGIN AROUND THE 00Z TIME FRAME AND CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z ON TUESDAY. SECOND ISSUE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE QPF. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AROUND 2 INCHES OVER THE AREA BEGINNING IN EARNEST TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE LINGERING SHOWERS TRANSITION TO SNOW. PWATS ARE CLOSE TO THE 2ND STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMO FOR NOV/DEC...AND SUSPECT THAT MODELS MAY BE UNDER REPRESENTING THIS POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...HPC HAS HOISTED OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON TUESDAY...AND THIS WILL WARRANT CLOSE ATTENTION TOMORROW AS THIS MUCH RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ISSUES. FOR THE MOST PART...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE EAST BEFORE THE COLD POOL ARRIVES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS APPEARS TO BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO KEEP THE MENTION OF FLURRIES AROUND THE AREA...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS BEYOND A SKIFF WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED OR CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. MOS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE WARM AND WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING ON SUNDAY TO NEAR NORMAL AND EXPECTED WAA TODAY HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WHICH ENDS UP RIGHT ABOUT WHERE THE CURRENT FORECAST NUMBERS WERE. WILL LEAVE THE WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MIXING THROUGH THE LOWEST LEVELS EXPECT EVEN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY STILL LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO...IF NOT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...DESPITE THE ONGOING RAIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CRASH WITH THE FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY STRUGGLING TO BREAK THE 40 DEGREE BARRIER. .LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/ THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW GENERAL AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD BE PASSING TO OUR EAST WED NIGHT...AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH AN EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON THURSDAY...WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT PRECIP THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND THE PRECIP POTENTIAL MAINLY LIES WITH SATURATION BEING ABLE TO HAPPEN FROM THE TOP DOWN...AND HAVE ONLY USED 20 PERCENT POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW. BEYOND THIS...MODELS DIVERGE AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY...BUT THE SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION IS VERY DIFFERENT. THE GFS DEVELOPS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS...AND SHIFTS IT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE RESPONSE INVOLVES THE HIGH PLAINS LOW DRIFTING SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UNDER THE SUPPORT OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. THE SURFACE SYSTEM DOES NOT HEAD EAST SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL LATER ON WHEN THE SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. THIS RESULTS IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP HERE ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...IT ALSO SHOWS A NORTHERN SHORTWAVE RIDING SE AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE SURFACE LOW IS ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE AND MOVES QUICKLY EAST. THIS AFFECTS OUR LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG INFLUX OF COLDER AIR ON SUNDAY. IN LIGHT OF VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...HAVE BROAD BRUSHED THE FORECAST DURING THE WEEKEND...USING AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF 20 PERCENT POPS. TEMPS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN...AND SHOW A WIDE ARRAY OF POSSIBILITIES DEPENDING ON THE SCENARIO. HAVE USED A COMPROMISE WHICH WILL SUPPORT A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OR SNOW PRECIP TYPE DURING THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY BUT LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. TONIGHT...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS TO THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST. SME AND LOZ WILL BE THE FIRST TO REALIZE THE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO WORSEN AS THE RAIN INCREASES TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY...WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO IFR OR WORSE IN ANY OF THE HEAVIER DOWN POURS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-118-120. && SHORT TERM...MB LONG TERM....HAL AVIATION...MB
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 700 AM EST MON NOV 29 2010 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-080-085-086-104-106>117-119-301500- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-LAUREL-WHITLEY-KNOX-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN- FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-MARTIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING... OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...LONDON...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG... BARBOURVILLE...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON... SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN... BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...INEZ 700 AM EST MON NOV 29 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. KYZ087-088-118-120-301500- BELL-HARLAN-LETCHER-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN... WHITESBURG...PIKEVILLE 700 AM EST MON NOV 29 2010 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH EXPECTED IN SOME LOCATIONS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 45 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS EARLY TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY HIGH WINDS WHICH OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. KYZ079-083-084-301500- PULASKI-WAYNE-MCCREARY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERSET...MONTICELLO...WHITLEY CITY 700 AM EST MON NOV 29 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HAL
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 23 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 14:57 UTC.
12 flood, 7 flash flood, 2 heavy rain, 1 strong wind, 1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
An NWS employee has reported that 2.62 inches of rain has fallen over the last 25 hours.
Trees and limbs were blown down in Grapevine along Hwy 1499 and in Big Creek on Hwy 194.
A COOP observer reports 2.56 inches of rainfall since 7 AM 3.02 inches storm total as of 445 PM.
Gordon Taylor Road in the Sawyer area was under water.
Devils Creek Road and Otter Creek Road west of Stearns were underwater.
Tackett Creek Road was underwater.
New Zion Road was underwater.
Highway 1804 at KY25 down to 1 lane.
Highway 25 south was closed near Pleasant View due to water over road.
Highway 1064 is closed near the fire department due to water over the road.
Land Fill Road at Highway 26 is under water and closed.
The 911 dispatch reported that water is over the road at the intersection of Highways 6 and 26.
A wind gust of 58 mph was measured by the mesonet observing site located in the Flatwoods area at 2774 feet msl.
Most of the secondary county roads across the county are now covered in standing water.
The county emergency manager reported that Hoppers Creek Road was underwater and closed.
Sasser Road near London was underwater and closed.
The county dispatch reported that water was over the road in some sections of the roadway and nearly running over a bridge in another location on Chop Bottom Road.
Water was reported to be over US Highway 421 near mile marker 6 in the Helton vicinity. The highway department was in the process of closing at least one lane of the highway.
Marsh Creek is out of its banks.
Rock Creek is out of its banks.
A road slide occurred on state highway 1470 east of Pine Knot due to heavy rain.
The road was closed near Tower and county highway 3436.
Kentucky 1363 was closed due to high water from about mile marker 7 to 9.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2010Every state in 2010This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, November 2010
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 264262, 269309, 264260, 264530, 269301, 264531, 269166, 264549, 264551, 264552, 264556, 264559, 269307, 264532, 264533, 269296, 264534, 264560, 264561, 264564, 264566, 264568, 264567.