Rip Current in Florida, November 29, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
858 AM EST MON NOV 29 2010

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES PLANNED TO MORNING UPDATES AT THIS TIME. OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AS SFC RIDGE MOVES
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND SFC FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z MFL
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING FROM LAST EVENING WITH THE SE
FLOW ALSO DEEPENING. THIS COULD LIMIT SHRA ACTIVITY TODAY BUT ONLY
HAVE ISOLD ADVERTISED AND THE 09Z WRF RUN DOES SHOW A FEW SHRA
DEVELOPING FROM TIME TO TIME SO DO NOT PLAN REMOVING AT THIS TIME.
MARINE ZONES LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM EST MON NOV 29 2010/

AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
ANY SHOWER IMPACTING A TERMINAL WOULD BE BRIEF WITH LITTLE IMPACTS.
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME ESE AT 10-15 KT BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS STAYING UP TONIGHT. /GREGORIA

DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STALLED JUST OFF OF THE SE
FLA COAST YESTERDAY NOW HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS WARM FRONT
..NOTED MAINLY BY RISING DEW POINTS OVER S FLA AND PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING N OF THE BOUNDARY NE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO PATCHY
FOG INTERIOR AND W...ESPECIALLY WHERE SOME RAINFALL OCCURRED SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLC STATES WILL MOVE NE THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AS LOW PRES MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND S CANADA N
OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SE
U.S. AND N FLA BY TUE NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION BEFORE NOON WEDNESDAY AND OFF OD THE SE PORTIONS
OF S FLA BY LATE AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...DRIER AND A LITTLE MORE
STABLE AIR WILL BE OVER S FLA TODAY AS HIGH PRES ALOFT MOVES OVER
THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
PATCHY FOG AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR AND W TONIGHT WITH
MINIMAL...IF AT ALL...SHOWERS ALONG THE E COAST. ON TUESDAY THE
CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN QUITE LOW BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE COASTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE SE U.S.  POPS MINIMAL AGAIN TUE NIGHT BY MAINLY ALONG
THE SW COAST. WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...ENDING FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS JUST ABOVE NORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH
MIN TEMPS SIMILAR. MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY DEPENDENT UPON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION AND NEAR NORMS ELSEWHERE.

EXTENDED FORECAST...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR
BELOW NORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINE...
EASTERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS THEN SWING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. COLD FRONT WINDS NORTHERLY 20 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DECREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE THIS WEEK.
SEAS BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST
7 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK.

THERE COULD ALSO BE A SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL OF 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND A NORTHWEST SWELL OF 1
TO 2 IN THE GULF WATERS.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS RH LEVELS ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT
CRITICAL VALUE. RH COULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK
BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  81  73  82  69 / 10 20 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  75  82  72 / 10 20 20 30
MIAMI            83  73  82  71 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES           85  68  84  68 / 10 10 20 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1118 AM EST MON NOV 29 2010

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-301100-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1118 AM EST MON NOV 29 2010

...SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY, MODERATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: EAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...FROM A SLIGHT RISK TODAY UP TO A
MODERATE RISK BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

VISIBILITY: PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST
LATER TONIGHT. WHILE MOST LOCALES WILL NOT SEE ADVERSE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...A FEW LOCALES COULD SEE VISIBILITIES FALLING TO A
QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS TOWARDS DAWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES ON
TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HAZARDOUS
SEAS EXPECTED IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND IN THE GULF STREAM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI
WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.