Damaging Wind and Heavy Rain in U.S. Virgin Islands, June 9, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1112 PM AST MON JUN 8 2009

.UPDATE...TROPICAL WAVE THAT AFFECTED THE LOCAL AREA TODAY HAS
MOVED OUT FROM THE AREA DISCUSSION THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...TRAILING
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS ATTM. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE WNW AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF
PUERTO RICO BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY.
THIS MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS WILL
PRODUCE ONCE AGAIN ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THEREFORE...MINOR
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME OF THESE AREAS...BUT MAINLY
ACROSS POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS...STREETS AND HIGHWAYS.

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJPS LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF
THE LOCAL TAF SITES...SHOULD REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM AST MON JUN 8 2009/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THEN FLATTEN ON WED AS S/W TROUGHS
LIFT OUT FROM CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVR THE SWRN CARIBBEAN. STRONG MID-UPPER
ANTICYCLONE EXPECTED TO REBUILD OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...WILL CANCEL FFA WATCH WITH 4PM ZONE FCST ISSUANCE AS
CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AND THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING BASICALLY
OVER. PRODUCTS TO BE RELEASED SHORTLY.

MODELS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES PEAKING AROUND
2.1 INCHES FOR TOMORROW AND WED HOWEVER MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD RIGHT OVR THE AREA. WOULD EXPECT A DECREASE
IN CONVECTIVE CVRG FOR TOMORROW DESPITE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.

WED DEFINITELY LOOKS MORE ACTIVE AS RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS AND
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. S/W VORTICES EXPECTED TO EMANATE FROM MID-
UPPER LVL TROUGH OVR THE WRN CARIBBEAN TO ENHANCE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...GFES ENSEMBLE DATA SHOW STRONG MID-UPPER LVL
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING RIGHT OVER PR WITH H5 HEIGHTS AOA 590DAM.
BELIEVE WEEKEND WILL TURN MUCH DRIER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY
ADVERTISING BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW IN MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FCST ATTM.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW WITH TSRA AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
AT JMZ/JBQ.

MARINE...THUNDERSTORMS THE ONLY HAZARD OVR WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS
RELATIVELY TRNAQUIL OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  88  79  87 /  40  40  30  50
STT  76  85  76  85 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

10/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 AM AST MON JUN 8 2009

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-091015-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
602 AM AST MON JUN 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL SPREAD INCREASED MOISTURE OVER PUERTO
RICO BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL PUERTO RICO AND INTERIOR ZONES. SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SMALL STREAM AND URBAN AREAS WILL SEE
FLOODING TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MOISTURE CONTINUES BEHIND THE WAVE IN A SIMILAR WIND FLOW SO THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING OF SMALL
STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AFTER WEDNESDAY BUT
SOME AREAS WILL STILL RECEIVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
NECESSARY. RAIN REPORTS ARE WELCOME.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-091015-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
602 AM AST MON JUN 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.