Hail and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, June 9 to 11, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1216 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR TO
IFR IN AREAS OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009/

UPDATE...

UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 361 EFFECTIVE
UNTIL 09Z FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALSO BUMPED POPS SOME IN THIS
SAME REGION. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED. BOWING LINE
CURRENTLY ACROSS SW MO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TOWARDS NORTHERN
COUNTIES...LIKELY ARRIVING AROUND OR AFTER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR THE FAR NW COUNTIES. UPDATED ZONES ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES THAT THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR A CHANUTE...TO POPLAR BLUFF LINE.
CONVECTION...BECOMING MORE SURFACE BASED WITH TIME...IS TRAVELING
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  ANY CHANCE FOR
THIS ACTIVITY TO REACH THE CWA APPEARS FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD DURING THE REST OF THE
PERIOD..AIDED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT. AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS POTENTIAL
ENERGY TO WORK WITH THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE EXTEND FORECAST WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OR NEAR ARKANSAS. ON SATURDAY MODELS HAVE THE
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN AR...WITH A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
TX AND OK PANHANDLES. SUNDAY THE SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY DRIFT A BIT MORE NORTH. THEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ALSO A BIT FARTHER NORTH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW NEAR NORTHERN OK TO
SOUTH CENTRAL KS...WITH THE BOUNDARY NEAR NORTH AR AND MO STATE LINE
MONDAY...CENTRAL MO ON TUESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCES
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING ON SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND
AT THIS TIME WILL STAY WITH THAT. MODEL UNCERTAINTY KEEPS POP
CHANCES FROM GOING MUCH HIGHER... AS THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PUSH THE
OVERALL SYSTEM EVEN FARTHER NORTH...AS WELL AS KEEP ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY A BIT FARTHER NORTH. FINE TUNING WILL BE NEEDED AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS AT
THIS TIME WOULD STAY LOW...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES. TEMPS WILL
STAY AT OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL... EXCEPT IN THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  67  85  64 /  50  60  50  30
CAMDEN AR         90  70  91  69 /  20  30  30  30
HARRISON AR       88  66  82  62 /  60  60  50  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  70  88  68 /  30  40  40  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  71  88  69 /  40  50  40  30
MONTICELLO AR     92  71  91  70 /  20  30  30  30
MOUNT IDA AR      89  69  87  67 /  40  40  40  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  66  82  62 /  60  70  50  30
NEWPORT AR        89  69  86  65 /  50  60  50  30
PINE BLUFF AR     91  71  90  70 /  30  40  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   89  69  85  66 /  50  50  50  30
SEARCY AR         89  69  87  67 /  50  60  50  30
STUTTGART AR      90  72  89  69 /  40  40  40  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...60

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-101000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY STRETCHED ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE OVER FAR NORTHERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS SUCH...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH 4 AM. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE
ARKANSAS MISSOURI BORDER REGION. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF ARKANSAS. A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATED THAT A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM TO THE NORTHWEST OF ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
AS WELL.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE NATURAL STATE
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN...
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56