NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 9, 3:17 PM EST, 1 hour 56 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 9, 3:17 PM EST, 1 hour 56 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
417 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL JUST TO
OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A
COUPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT AND TOWARD
OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AFTER A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING, THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
DESTABILIZED THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND LIS
NEAR -5, AND THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
WARNINGS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. THESE ARE FORMING ALONG A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WITH HELP FROM A WEAK WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT. THE
MAIN FRONT IS LOCATED IN WEST PENNSYLVANIA, AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH
A LITTLE AFTER SUNDOWN, THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
OUR AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT, OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD, SO AFTER THIS,
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH. WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE AIR, AND DRYING ALOFT, AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
DENSITY OF THE FOG, SO WE WILL NOT INCLUDE AND DENSITY INDICATOR
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
ONCE THE SUN RISES, SO WE SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY PROBLEMS WITH THAT.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH, MOST PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE LOCATED OUT OF OUR AREA. WE DO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION AS THERE MAY BE AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH ANY INSTABILITY IN THE DAY AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
FRONT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
WHICH COULD HELP TO INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE AIR EXPECTED TO BE RATHER STABLE AHEAD
OF THE WARM FRONT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
BY THURSDAY, THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE WELL TO OUR NORTH BEFORE A
COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD OUR AREA. AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS,
WARM/UNSTABLE AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. CAPES
COULD GET ABOVE 1000-1500 J/KG AND LIS COULD BE LESS THAN -3 C.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA LATER ON THURSDAY AS WELL, SO THIS COULD ENHANCE THE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY. WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER. THE FRONT
SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE
DAY, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE COMPLEX LOW SLIDES FURTHER TO OUR EAST, NORTHWEST WINDS KICK
IN BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR IS ALLOWED TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION, ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT GOING TO BE EXPERIENCING A
DRASTIC CHANGE IN AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE IS ABLE TO CONTROL OUR
WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING ON SATURDAY AND PART OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SWING THROUGH ON SUNDAY
PROVIDING ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS AN AREA OF DECENT
OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE, AS WELL AS A SOME PVA USHERING
INTO THE REGION. WITH THE DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE CONVECTION WILL EXIST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ITS NOT UNTIL
TUESDAY THAT A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE REGION AND WE
DRY OUT NICELY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING, AS ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA RESPECTIVELY. THE MORNING LOW
LEVEL MURKINESS WAS TRYING TO DECREASE OVER OUR EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES AT EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN SO, THE STABLE AIR
NEAR THE COAST MAY KEEP CONVECTION FROM BECOMING TOO TALL OR SEVERE.
WESTERN TAF SITES STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM,
AND CENTRAL SITES ARE IN A MIDDLE GROUND REGARDING INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE. SO, A TEMPO GROUP WAS INSERTED FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE BEST FOUR HOURS FOR
CONVECTION ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES. THEREAFTER, A CB
REMARK WAS KEPT IN FOR THE STRATOCUMULUS FOR THE EARLY NIGHTTIME
PERIOD.
THEN, MOS GUIDANCE WAS DIVERGENT IN RESOLVING THE ISSUE OF LOW
CLOUDINESS AND FOG TONIGHT. WITH SUCH COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
AND HEDGING TOWARD THE NAM, IT WAS DECIDED TO LOWER THE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO IFR FOR LATE TONIGHT AND WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BEFORE SHOWING IMPROVEMENT TO MARGINAL VFR BY LATE
MORNING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST, OR SOUTH OVER KRDG,
BECOMING EAST OR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.
OUTLOOK...
AFTER THE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS DISSIPATE / RAISE UP WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE SOMETHING LIKE
A LEE SIDE TROUGH. THEN, ANOTHER LOW IS SHOWN ON MODEL GUIDANCE TO
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL OFFER
MORE MARGINAL VFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CONVECTION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY MORNING. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARD
OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
CONTINUITY FOR THE ABSENCE OF GENERALIZED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO BE IN OUR THINKING. WAVEWATCH FAILS TO
FORECAST 5 FOOT SEAS FOR BUOY 44009 THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS, OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, WILL LIKELY REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS
GIVEN THE LACK OF A REALLY GOOD GRADIENT. THE BEST OF A GRADIENT IS
STILL LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW RIDES TOWARD AND
INTO OUR AREA, AND THIS WILL BE WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT
TIME.
OTHERWISE, MORE AREAS OF FOG WILL BE ADDED TO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT
FOR THE MARINE ZONES WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND VERY HIGH AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ067>071.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ008>010-
012-015>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../