NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 9, 8:08 AM EST, 22 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 9, 8:08 AM EST, 22 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS OUR REGION. THIS LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT FINALLY SWINGING THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM EDT AND WE
HAVE UPDATED ALL PUBLIC PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THIS.
VERY EARLY ON, THE NAM HAD BOTH THE INSTABILITY TO THE WEST AND
THE MARINE FLOW COMING IN OFF THE OCEAN TO THE EAST, AND WE
STARTED BY FAVORING THAT MODEL, WHICH IS TO SAY WE DID NOT LIFT
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NAM ALSO WAS SUPPORTING
SPCS DEPICITION OF A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TODAY OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. THERE WAS AN
APPROACHING UPPER JETLET, AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER WEAKER ONE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, SOME VERY
GOOD CAPES AS ONE MOVED WEST /INCLUDING CAPES IN THE 0 TO -20 DEG
C PART OF THE SOUNDINGS/, DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, ALBEIT WITH FAIRLY
WEAK SPEEDS IN THE LOWER LAYERS, AND SOME ROBUST MOISTURE WITH
MORNING VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. SOME OF THAT MOISTURE
LOOKED TO GET TAKEN EAST BY THE FIRST SHORT WAVE, BUT VALUES
STAYED ABOVE 1.25 THROUGH THE DAY. HPC WAS CONCERNED THAT THE NAM
WAS WEAK WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF ENERGY COMING THROUGH TODAY,
AND STILL THE NAM DID SHOW DECENT LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MOVING
IN THIS AFTERNOON, SO WE WERE NOT AT ALL CERTAIN THAT THE THREAT
TO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE PASSING OF THE
FIRST IMPULSE. WE STARTED BY CARRYING ENHANCED WORDING WEST AND
CENTRAL WITH NO REGARD TO TIMING. WE MENTIONED HAIL, WIND,
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD THE MET EAST /ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST/ AND
TOWARD THE MAV WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM HOLDS TOUGH WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE ONSHORE
FLOW TONIGHT. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DEVELOP A LOW NEAR THE
DELMARVA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT, AND SO ALSO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
AN EASTERLY FLOW. THE THREE MODELS HAVE VARIOUS DEPICITIONS OF
ENERGY COMING OVER A WEAKLY BUILDING RIDGLET, AND WEVE BASICALLY
GONE WITH A PRECIP FORECAST THAT STARTS WITH ASSUMED PERSISTENCE
/FROM WHAT WE ARE FORECASTING FOR THE FIRST PERIOD/ AND ENDS WITH
CLIMATOLOGY /LOW POPS/. AGAIN, OUR TEMPERATURES LEAN MET NORTHEAST
AND THEN BLEND MET AND MAV MOVING FURTHER SOUTHWEST.
BY WEDNESDAY, WE WOULD LIKE TO FAVOR CLIMATOLOGY IN THAT IT WOULD
BE HARD TO KEEP THE WARM FRONT AT BAY WITH SUCH A HIGH SUN ANGLE
AND A PROGRESSIVE /SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE/ SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTHEAST, BUT SAID HIGH KEEPS GETTING STRONGER ON ALL MODELS. WE
COULDNT FIND A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION AT THE MID LEVELS AND SO
OUR POPS ARE LOW FOR NOW, BUT WE DID GO CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE VIS A
VIS TODAY ON TEMPERATURES. WITH A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WE BROUGHT POPS BACK IN. THE NAM LOOKS
OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM, SO WE DID NOT RAISE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BASED ON ITS STRONG H925 FLOW AT THIS POINT
BUT RATHER MAINTAINED CONTINUITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY THURSDAY, THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD,
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FINALLY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS DEPENDING OF THE
TRACK OF THE WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IF WE REMAIN
IN THE WARM SECTOR LONG ENOUGH. EITHER WAY, WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A NICE
WEEKEND. WITHOUT ANY STRONG WARM OR COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLE. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A RATHER TRICKY FORECAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM FAR
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY BACK TO NEAR KILG THEN JUST SOUTHWEST OF KRDG.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT, WHICH MAY NOT ALLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
BOUNDARY IN OUR AREA TO WORK VERY FAR NORTHWARD. THE MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW IS RATHER EVIDENT IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY BY A SOLID STRATUS DECK ALONG WITH SOME FOG. THIS STRATUS
DECK HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SLIDING WESTWARD WITH TIME AND ALL OUR
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE COMPUTER MODELS ON THE EXTENT OF THE
LOWER CONDITIONS AND HOW LONG THEY LAST TODAY. WE LEANED MORE TOWARD
THE SLOWER APPROACH AS THE TRACK OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR
REMOVED FROM OUR AREA COULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A MORE ONSHORE
FLOW. A POSSIBLE CONCERN IS THAT THE STRONG JUNE SUNSHINE MAY BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENOUGH, ALLOWING CEILINGS TO
RISE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED. THE LOWER CEILINGS HELD ON LONGER THAN
INITIALLY THOUGHT YESTERDAY, THEREFORE WE DID NOT WANT TO RUSH THE
IMPROVEMENTS GIVEN A MORE WIDESPREAD SCENARIO THIS MORNING.
WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA COMBINED WITH UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. WHILE SOME ACTIVITY WILL BE AROUND THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY KRDG AND KABE, PERHAPS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS OCCUR FROM ABOUT MIDDAY ON FROM WEST TO EAST. TIMING THE
ACTIVITY IS CHALLENGING, HOWEVER THIS WOULD CHANGE ONCE THE ACTIVITY
INITIATES AND BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. WE ARE MONITORING A ROBUST
LINE OF CONVECTION EXITING OUT OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND HEADED
FOR THE KRDG AND KABE AREAS. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED WITH VCSH/VCTS
AND THE CB DESCRIPTOR AND WILL ISSUE AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED TO FINE
TUNE THE DETAILS. IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWER IN LIFTING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY, THIS MAY LIMIT THE
SEVERITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. EITHER WAY, THERE IS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE, THEREFORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WOULD TEND
TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY AT TIMES AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED
WITH MANY STORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THIS EVENING
THEN DIMINISH WITH TIME. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MEANDER IN OUR
VICINITY TONIGHT, AND THIS MAY TEND TO KEEP THE CLOUD BASES LOWER.
IF THE CEILINGS ARE ABLE TO IMPROVE, THEY MAY TEND TO LOWER ONCE
AGAIN IN THE EVENING AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS.
OUTLOOK...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A PESKY BOUNDARY LOOKS TO LINGERS NEAR OUR AREA. WE MAY
BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STALLED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS WITH
AN EASTERLY FLOW TO ITS NORTH. WHILE THERE IS NO REAL STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT, THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL GOVERN
THE WIND DIRECTION. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE COMPUTER MODELS
ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND WE ARE
LEANING MORE TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION GIVEN THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
BEING FAR REMOVED FROM OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND LONGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. WE ARE ANTICIPATING WINDS TO BE ABOUT 10 KNOTS GIVEN THE
FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON THURSDAY THEN SLIDES NEARBY THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION HOLDING WITHIN THE WAA REGIME. THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO GO IN THIS DIRECTION. THE INCREASED FLOW THOUGH WILL BUILD THE
SEAS SOME, HOWEVER WAVEWATCH ONLY TOPS SEAS TO 5 FEET LATER THURSDAY
FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF
CAPPING THE SEAS AT 4 FEET GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS
AND THE LACK OF A MUCH STRONGER GRADIENT. HOWEVER, WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
FINALLY BE SLIDING TO OUR EAST FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL PULL A COLD
FRONT THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD TOWARD
OUR AREA SATURDAY, HOWEVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY NOT BE TO FAR AWAY
TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER GUIDANCE ONE HOUR VALUES START TO GET
EXCITED AT AROUND 1.5 INCHES, AND WE DIDNT THINK THAT WOULD
HAPPEN ON A WIDE ENOUGH SCALE TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES. HOWEVER, THE
PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION MAY CAUSE
A FEW CELLS TO DROP ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING AND WE
HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA/DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...GORSE
HYDROLOGY...DELISI