Tornado and Flash Flooding in Missouri, June 9 to 10, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
706 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE TRYING TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION OVER THE REGION.

IN THE NEAR TERM THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF INTEREST. THE FIRST IS A
PERSISTENT SMALL COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS BEEN MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH EAST CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MO. THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THIS CONVECTION HAS BRUSHED OUR EASTERN COUNTIES DURING
THE EVENING AND CONTINUES TO DO SO. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
LINGER IN AN AREA WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUES ALONG THE
SFC AND 850MB BOUNDARIES...STILL MODERATELY STRONG MLCAPES OF
2000 J/KG AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM A WEST-WSW MODEST
850MB FLOW. THE FRONT AND LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE
W-E SFC BOUNDARY ALLOWING PERSIST BACK BUILDING TO OCCUR. WOULD EXPECT
THE CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT HAVE OCCASIONALLY SEEN
SOME DECENT UPDRAFTS PULSE UP...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THE TRENDS
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM OVERNIGHT.

THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN...MORE SO FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
TUESDAY...WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
OZARKS. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN OK INTO KS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN CWFA BEFORE DAYLIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER RIPPLE IN THE
WEST TO WSW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW . INITIALLY...CONVECTION WILL BE
ELEVATED WITH MUCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. EVENTUALLY...PROGGED
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH HEATING BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES
APPROACHING 2500 J/KG OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA. WITH
SFC BOUNDARY STILL LIFTING NORTHWARD AND SOMEWHAT BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND AMPLE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40
KTS...CAN EASILY SEE SUPERCELLS DEVELOP IF THE PROGGED CAPES ARE
REALIZED. COMPLICATING MATTERS SOMEWHAT WILL BE HOW EXTENSIVE
INITIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE AND ITS AFFECT ON ANY GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO MORE SFC BASED CONVECTION. AN ELEVATED MIX LAYER IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH WITH TIME AS WELL AND MAY
CAP OFF OR LIMIT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF CONVECTION. THE KJLN
PROGGED SOUNDING FROM THE GFS SHOWS A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING OF
THE CAP WITH MLCIN GRADUALLY INCREASING TO ROUGHLY 70-80 J/KG BY
00Z. ALL IN ALL...BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN OZARKS/OSAGE PLAINS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST
TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER NOCTURNAL CLUSTER/COMPLEX POSSIBLE OVER THE
LOWER MO RIVER VLY. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS OVER THE NORTHERN CWFA
COUNTIES TUE NIGHT.

WED-WED NIGHT-EARLY THU...WILL SEE A REPEAT IN THE CYCLE AS A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE LIFTS ENE FORM THE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE MID MS VLY DURING THIS TIME. THIS MAY ACTUALLY END UP
BEING THE PERIOD OF MOST CONCERN HYDROLOGICALLY...MAINLY WED-WED
NIGHT. HARD TO KNOW WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL SET UP...BUT
BOTH THE ECMWF AND AND GFS MOVE A SFC WAVE EAST ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM KS/OK THROUGH MO WED/WED NIGHT. CONVECTION
FROM TUE NIGHT (SHOULD IT DEVELOP) WILL PLAY A ROLE AS TO WHERE
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES MAY SET UP. COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE WE SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP OR RE-INTENSIFY (IF STILL ONGOING) WED
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND
CONTINUES INTO WED NIGHT. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES BY
THIS TIME...SO HEAVY PRECIP IS A CONCERN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
PERIOD IN THE HWO AND PROBABLY WILL ISSUE AN ESF AS WELL.

LATE THU-FRI-WEEKEND...MAY SEE A BIT OF A LULL DURING THIS TIME AS
THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. STILL
HAVE POPS...BUT THEY ARE MORE FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH SUBTLE MID LEVEL FEATURES BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED BY THIS TIME. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ON FRI WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION. THE VERY GENERAL TREND WITH PROGS IS TO GRADUALLY
BUILD UPPER HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE FRI AND THIS
WEEKEND. ANY POP FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IS LOW CONFIDENCE.
DSA

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD FOCUS ON THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
INITIALLY...AND SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE STORM INITIATION AND THE POSITION OF
THE WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE TERMINALS WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THE STORM. HAVE INDICATED THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH
VCTS/VCSH FOR BOTH THE JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD FORECAST. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE AND
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE IMPACTED. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING STORM INITIATION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON THE UNCERTAIN
NATURE OF WHEN AND WHERE...DUE TO WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE...MAKES
IT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN A TIME FRAME...SO WILL HANDLE THIS BY
WATCHING STORM DEVELOPMENT AND AMENDING AS NEEDED.

HATCH

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
915 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-101415-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
915 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THESE STORMS WERE DEVELOPING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.

LATER TODAY...AS THE INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE
AREA....STORMS MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED AND THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

WARMER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL DIMINISH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THERE BY EARLY
EVENING AS THE CAP DEVELOPS.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT AND MID LEVEL WARMING CAP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
DAMAGING WIND UP TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
INTERACTS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE CONVECTION EVOLVES INTO ONE OR MORE SLOW
MOVING STORM COMPLEXES OR CLUSTERS.

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT THE TIMING
AND EXTENT OF THE STORMS IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
649 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             DORA                    36.78N 92.22W
06/08/2009  E0.88 INCH       OZARK              MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
722 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0649 PM     HAIL             3 NNW DORA              36.82N 92.24W
06/08/2009  E0.88 INCH       DOUGLAS            MO   PUBLIC

            HAIL LASTED FOR 2 MINUTES.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1029 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MAPLETON                38.01N 94.88W
06/08/2009                   BOURBON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THUNDERSTORM WINDS MONDAY MORNING DAMAGED A ROOF OF A
            HOUSE AND UPROOTED TREES.

&&

SRUNNELS