Flash Flood and Hail in North Carolina, June 22, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

MINOR S/W LIFTING E-NE ACROSS THE REGION COUPLED WITH A POCKET OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPLIED BY 75KT JET EXITING OFF THE DELMARVA WILL
INTERACT WITH MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH
CONVECTION DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. DUE TO DEEP WEAK W-SW FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS TO LINGER
OR TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME REGION. WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IN FORECAST TEXT. WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON DENSE FOG POTENTIAL AS CLOUDS MAY NOT
SCATTER AS EARLY AS LAST NIGHT. IF CLOUDS DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED...THEN AREAS OF DENSE FOG PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT:
MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT AND DEPICT SHARPENING OF L/W
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONG S/W
AIDED BY STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET DIGS INTO TROUGH. AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
THE REGION WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE AIR
MASS SHOULD BE MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE. EXPECT BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS
TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT WHEN BETTER DYNAMICS APPROACH FROM WEST. BEST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-7 DEG C/KM) OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
WELL AS BEST LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AT 850 MB. COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE INT EH EST AROUND SUNSET WITH SCATTERED STORMS PROGRESSING
EWD DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH W-E TOWARD 12Z
TUE.

TUESDAY...WHILE L/W TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALOFT WITH ASSOCIATED
COOL POOL...W-NW LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA. LACK OF A TRIGGER IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF ATMOSPHERE
SUGGEST THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED OT THE FAR
E-NE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN FORECAST TEXT AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...L/W TROUGH LIFTS
N-NE...ALLOWING BERMUDA HIGH TO EXTEND WWD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM WLY FLOW ACROSS REGION. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL STABILIZE AIR MASS SO EXPECT NO CONVECTION AND
JUST FEW/SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 1215 PM SUNDAY...

UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
PROJECTED TO BE FAIRLY TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER WITH AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND THE JET STREAM
STRETCHING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THIS TYPE OF REGIME
USUALLY SPELLS VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH ONLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SO APPEARS NEAR 90/LOWER 90S CAN BE
EXPECTED THU AND FRI.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DUE TO DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
CONCERNING AMPLIFICATION OF S/WS IN THE JET STREAM. OVER OUR
REGION...APPEARS THAT ANY CHANGES WILL BE EITHER SUBTLE OR SLOW TO
EVOLVE. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT BETTER/DEEPER MOISTURE BY THE
WEEKEND WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION. FOR NOW WILL NUDGE POPS UP TO SMALL CHANCE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND KEEPS POPS SUNDAY NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE.
WILL FORECAST MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...

AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING OFF THE WESTERN SLOPES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDER REACHING INT/GSO VICINITY TOWARDS 300
PM. MEANWHILE... INSTABILITY IS IMPRESSIVE AND SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 84-85 IS ACHIEVED. SHOWER COVERAGE IS
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS...BUT DO NOT HAVE STRONG
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE AND TIMING AT THIS POINT. ACTIVITY WILL
BE ON THE WANE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...AND EXPECT PATCHY IFR
CLOUDINESS AND FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE THE
AIRMASS WILL BE MORE MOIST.

STRONG UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...SPARKING MORE CONVECTION DURING MAX HEATING TOMORROW. BEST
UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE VERY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MORE ORGANIZATION WITH MONDAY STORMS...A LINE OF STORMS
PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...VFR CONDITIONS...THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...MLM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
132 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

NCZ008>011-026>028-041>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-230945-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WAKE-JOHNSTON-
WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
132 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 4 PM AND 9 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1...INCLUDING THE TRIANGLE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 4 PM AND 9 PM
TODAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. SPOTTERS
SHOULD STAY TUNED AND REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

NCZ007-021>025-038>040-230945-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
CHATHAM-
132 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NEEDED LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SPOTTERS SHOULD STAY TUNED AND REPORT
ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

WSS

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