Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, June 22, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1114 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY HIGH CLOUD ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS CWA. HIGH CLOUDS HAD CLEARED MOST OF
MOUNTAINS AND SOME HIGHER ELEVATION CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WERE ALREADY
FORMING ALONG THE RIDGES. SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. APPEARS
THAT TIMING OF SHORT WAVE MOVEMENT WILL FAVOR AREAS JUST TO OUR
EAST FOR BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RUC SHOWS
NORTH/SOUTH AXIS OF SURFACE WIND CONFLUENCE MOVES FROM WESTERN
PORTIONS OF PIEDMONT EARLY IN AFTERNOON TO VICINITY EASTERN
BORDER OF CWA BY EARLY EVENING. GUIDANCE CAPES HIGHLY VARIABLE
ACROSS AREA... BUT SAFE TO ASSUME THAT VALUES AT LEAST FROM 1K TO
2K J/KG ARE LIKELY. MORNING UPDATE WILL CONTINUE POPS IN CHANCE
RANGE FOR MOST OF AREA. WILL LOOK FOR 50-55 DBZ CORES TO EXCEED
27K AS FIRST GUESS FOR PULSE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

A PERIOD OF BRIEF NVA IN THE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DESPITE
THE SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A RELATIVE LULL IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WITH ISOLATED
POPS CONTINUING IN MTN LOCATIONS AND POSSIBLY IN THE NW NC PIEDMONT
WITH TRIGGERING ALONG LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...I WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. ON MONDAY...LONG WAVE TROF WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE MID WEST AND WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT EASTWARD. WEAK S/W WITHIN THE
LONG WAVE MAY REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...HOWEVER...ANY
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN WEAK. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SORTING OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
WIND FIELDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL APPROACH 50 KTS
FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE WIND SPEEDS COULD RESULT
IN FAIR MOVEMENT OF TSRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SFC. HOWEVER...BL MIXING TO 7-8 KFT WILL
KEEP THE LFC VERY HIGH AS SFC DEWPOINTS MIX TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE AFTERNOON. I BELIEVE THAT THE COMBINATION OF RIDGETOP
CONVERGENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK S/W WOULD INITIATE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD
TRACK EAST WITH ENOUGH SPEED TO MOVE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST SCT COVERAGE FOR THE MTNS AND
AREAS EAST MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVAILABLE WIND ENERGY AND LOW
WBZ COULD RESULT IN ONE OR TWO SEVERE EVENTS...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IN
THE HWO.

ON TUESDAY...THE L/W TROF AXIS WILL ALIGN WITH THE ATLANTIC COAST AS
A BROAD RIDGE BULGES OVER THE DESERT SW. AT THE SFC...DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD EASILY RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARM LLVL
THICKNESSES AND STRONG INSOLATION. THE POSSIBILITY FOR DEEP
CONVECTION LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 60 TO 50
AND BUILDING H7 INVERSION. I WILL ADVERTISE SINGLE DIGIT POPS AND
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S IN THE MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 90 EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE DEFINED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH EACH DAY. IN
FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE H7 TEMPERATURE WILL WARM
ABOVE 7 C AT THE NOSE OF AN INVERSION. I WILL ADVERTISE ANOTHER DAY
OF SINGLE DIGIT POPS ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE INVERSION WILL
COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES. WEAK RETURN FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
MAY BUILD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISO SHRA/TSRA DURING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...H5 RIDGING WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
REGION AS ANOTHER TROF DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THE HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST.
IT APPEARS THAT THIS SETTING WOULD FAVOR DIURNAL ISO SHRA/TSRA WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL. I CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN THE GOING
FORECAST DURING THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A CONVERGENCE AXIS
ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
VICINITY OF KAND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...SO WILL TEMPO IN AN SHRA MENTION 12Z TO 13Z WITH MVFR
CEILINGS. LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT KAVL
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE IFR RANGE BEFORE LOW CLOUDS
SCATTER AFTER 13Z. CONVECTIVE CUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH HEATING
LATER THIS MORNING...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE VICINITY OF MOST TAF LOCATIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE INTO MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE ABUNDANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE MONDAY MORNING FOR A LIKELY REPEAT OF MVFR VSBY AND
PATCHY MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE NEAR KAVL.
GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...LGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
457 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-230900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
457 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN INTO THE EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE PENNY SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT INTO THE
EVENING. ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
PENNY SIZED HAIL. HOWEVER...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1213 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

NCZ033-221645-
AVERY-
1213 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AVERY COUNTY THROUGH
1245 PM EDT...

AT 1213 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BANNER ELK...OR 4 MILES
NORTH OF NEWLAND...MOVING EAST AT 12 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BANNER ELK BY 1225 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1236 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

NCZ049-050-221700-
MITCHELL-YANCEY-
1236 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MITCHELL AND
NORTHEASTERN YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM EDT...

AT 1236 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF RAMSEYTOWN...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF
BURNSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BAKERSVILLE BY 100 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BSH