Hail and Damaging Winds in Virginia, June 22, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1050 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS MOUNTAINS
LATE TODAY AND REMAIN IN THE VICINTY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY
PUSHING WELL EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE
IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP KEEP LAPSE RATES RELATIVELY
STEEP...AS WELL AS HELP INCREASE SHEAR A BIT AND BRING IN SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT LATE IN THE DAY. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING ALOFT IN
THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SFC CAPES OF 2000 J/KG OR HIGHER. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS THE CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR SOME MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND PROBABLY A FEW MORE SEVERE STORMS COMPARED TO
SATURDAY...WITH WIND PERHAPS HIGHEST THREAT. SUSPECT EARLIEST
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN OVER HIGHEST TERRAIN BUT SPREADING EAST AND
ALSO MORE ORGANIZED MOVING IN FROM WEST LATE IN THE DAY OR
EVENING. JUST WENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CHC POPS EVERYWHERE...WITH
HIGHEST IN THE WEST LATE.

WHILE THERE MAY BE MORE AREAS THAT BY EARLY EVENING HAVE
EXPERIENCE CONVECTION COMPARED TO SATURDAY...THE TIMING OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS LIKELY TO ONCE AGAIN
KEEP SOME CONVECTION GOING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO AHVE
KEPT A SMALL CHC POP UP FOR THE WEST ALL NIGHT...SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EAST.

AM STICKING VERY CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS
OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS PER RECENT COOL BIASES FOR
HIGHS. HIGHS VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EAST
AND 70S TO NEAR 80 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHATS LEFT OF IT...MAY END UP BEING JUST
TO THE EAST OF CWA ON MONDAY...TROF AMPLIFIES WITH STRONGER WAVE
DIGGING AROUND BOTTOM BY EARLY MONDAY AND MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO
HOLD BOUNDARY IN PLACE OR EVEN PULL IT BACK SOMEWHAT. SOME
INDICATIONS OF MUCH MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING
LATER IN THE DAY...LIKELY OUT EAST. BUT WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT
STILL MOVING IN TO WEST...MORE SCT CONV STILL POSSIBLE BACK THERE.
FOR NOW AHVE NOT INDICATED HIGHER CHANCES EAST OR WEST...BUT
EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS OUT EAST FOR MONDAY.

MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL PUSH
THE BOUNDARY WELL EAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUES...AND
SIGNIFICANTLY DRY THINGS OUT...ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY COOL
THINGS OFF AS SLIGHTLY LOW THICKNESSES WILL BE OFFSET BY MORE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER DEW PTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH AMPLITUDE TO THE UPPER FLOW...MEANS THAT THE HEAT RIDGE
OVER THE SONORAN DESERT WILL STAY PUT...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS UNDER ZONAL FLOW TO AT WORST A WEAK TROUGH INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AS SOME OF THE WARMER H85 TEMPS TRY TO PUSH NORTH...A
WEAK BOUNDARY MAY SETUP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH A SLT
CHC FOR SHWS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD BE BEAR
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR VSBYS COMING UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH DAN MAY STAY AT
IFR THRU 13Z OR SO. HAVE BEEN DOWN TO 1/4 MI VSBY. A FEW WEAKENING
SHWRS STILL LINGERING ARND LWB AND BLF...INCLUDED BRIEF PERIOD OF
VCTS BUT MAINLY SHWRS AT THIS POINT.

LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT BETTER BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING COMPARED TO SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...BUT THERE IS NOT ANY PARTICULAR FEATURE AT THIS POINT
TO FOCUS ON WHERE THEY SHOULD DEVELOP. INITIAL WAVE ENTERING WEST
VIRGINIA MAY RE-TRIGGER CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF BLUE RDG...WITH BIGGER WAVE HEADED IN
BY LATE AFTERNOON TO TRIGGER MORE ACTIVTY IN ALL LOCATIONS. BUT
THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST AND HAVE BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE VCTS MOST
LOCATIONS BY EARLY AFT. COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR MENTIONING TS EXPLICITELY IN TAFS. CHANCES OF
ANY ONE SITE SEEING A TSTM IS PROBABLY 40 TO 50 PCT. MAY BE ABLE
TO PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP IN LATER FCSTS. HOWEVER ISOLATED ANY
STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH WINDS GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE AND
HAIL.

MORE MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP MOST LOCATIONS AND LIKELY IFR AT LWB AND
DAN...ESPECIALLY IF THEY PICK OF RAINFALL TODAY.

STILL A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NOTICEABLE CLEARING WILL OCCUR TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...JS/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JJ/JS/SK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
441 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-230845-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
441 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREATS...AND THIS COULD LAST WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WHILE ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY TO BE
WIDESPREAD...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE
WITHIN THIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS RATHER
LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.