Hail in Ohio, June 22, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
126 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO CLEAN UP MORNING WORDING. CONVECTION IS FIRING
OVER INDIANA AT THIS TIME AND MOVING EAST. FORECAST AREA REMAINS
UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING
MORE AND MORE UNSTABLE AS TIME PASSES. LI VALUES RAPIDLY
DECREASING IN THE WEST AND I ANTICIPATE THIS MORE UNSTABLE AIR
WILL ADVECT FURTHER EAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND DAY TIME
HEATING CONTINUES. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BRIEFLY. ACTIVITY SHOULD FLAREUP AGAIN ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER LOBE
OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH. THE PRECIP SHOULD EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF
FOR GOOD MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF
FROM THE NW. BY MIDDAY TUESDAY THE HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY COOL WITH LOT/S OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SLIGHT WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THEN WE WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO MIDWEEK AND THEN DRIFT
OFF TO THE EAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
COULD KICK OF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPS
WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE AND
ANOTHER TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. NON VFR
CONDITIONS. ON THE EDGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH.

.OUTLOOK...SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/STORM ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OHIO/INLAND NW PA BEFORE THE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SPREAD IN FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKELY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE REMAINS LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AS IT
PULLS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT
CREATING INSTABILITY. STILL EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES GENERALLY LIGHT
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO REMAIN LIGHT. BY LATE WEEK AS THE HIGH
MOVES SOUTHEAST EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...LOMBARDY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
121 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

LEZ142>148-162>168-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
231730-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
121 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LEZ061-149-169-PAZ001>003-231730-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-NORTHERN ERIE-
SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
121 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW OF THESE COULD BECOME SEVERE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.