Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, October 14, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
253 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT MOST AREAS...AND
PERHAPS TOMORROW ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. COLD
FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP AS CAP WEAKENS. SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE LIFT OCCURRING AND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE REGION AS
STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.
EXPECT THE MOST WIDESPREAD STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG COLD FRONT. PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE WIND AND HAIL...PRIMARILY WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS
AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WILL BE IN A REGION WHERE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING...WHERE INSTABILITY AND LOWER-LEVEL WILL BE MAXIMIZED BEFORE
STORMS GET MORE LINEAR AND ELEVATED. THIS MENTIONED AREA WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY...AS THERE WILL BE CONCERN FOR TORNADOES MAINLY WITH
ANY LONG-LIVED AND DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCENARIO
LAID OUT IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER GRAPHICS AND OUTLOOK...WHERE PER
COORD WITH SPC UPPED SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA TO
MODERATE RISK. HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME A CONCERN TOWARD AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL OUT AND FLOW BECOMES MORE
PARALLEL WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE.

MINIMAL CHANGES TO PERIODS FARTHER OUT...WITH TRANSIENT SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE WEEK. BUMPED POPS UPWARD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS MOISTURE TRIES TO RETURN QUICKLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENT AND
PROGRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  71  53  80 /  80  30  10  10
HOBART OK         56  72  53  80 /  60  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  75  56  81 /  60  40  20  10
GAGE OK           48  69  46  78 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  67  48  76 /  90  20  10  10
DURANT OK         64  73  58  81 /  70  80  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

22/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-151200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1208 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A SLIGHT RISK
COVERS THE REST OF THE NORMAN FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS LOCATED EAST OF A LINE FROM SEYMOUR TEXAS
TO CORDELL OKLAHOMA...AND WEST OF A LINE FROM PURCELL TO RINGLING.
THIS INCLUDES...AND IS CENTERED AROUND THE CITIES OF LAWTON AND
WICHITA FALLS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE
RISK AREA...WILL BE FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER MAY
CONTINUE AFTER 10 PM.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN. HOWEVER... TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRAW A MODEST RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE...WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM BETWEEN
2 AND 4 PM...BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND DEVELOPING
SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELLS EARLY. THE STORMS MAY INTERACT TO FORM LINE SEGMENTS WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS FARTHER NORTH...WHILE THERE WILL BE A GREATER
CHANCE FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY...AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
MORE DISTINCT THREAT FOR TORNADOES...HOWEVER...MAY DEVELOP IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA DURING THE EVENING...IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEGIN
TO INTERACT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP VERY QUICKLY. PEOPLE ARE URGED
TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE FOR WEATHER INFORMATION.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY OCT 15.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY... WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
MONDAY.

BURKE/11/MAXWELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
414 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

OKZ005-011-014>016-142130-
ROGER MILLS OK-DEWEY OK-WOODS OK-CUSTER OK-MAJOR OK-
414 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CUSTER...DEWEY...MAJOR...
ROGER MILLS AND WOODS COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF
ORION TO HAMMON AT 414 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH...WITH THE
INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LINE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED.

PEOPLE IN CUSTER...DEWEY...MAJOR...ROGER MILLS AND WOODS COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND
REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
430 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

OKZ011-015-016-142145-
DEWEY OK-CUSTER OK-MAJOR OK-
430 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CUSTER...DEWEY AND MAJOR
COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 3 MILES WEST OF
TALOGA TO 8 MILES WEST OF FOSS RESERVOIR AT 430 PM CDT...MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH...WITH THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. SMALL HAIL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

PEOPLE IN CUSTER...DEWEY AND MAJOR COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
438 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

OKZ011-014>016-142200-
ROGER MILLS OK-DEWEY OK-CUSTER OK-MAJOR OK-
438 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CUSTER...DEWEY...MAJOR AND
ROGER MILLS COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TALOGA TO 5 MILES EAST OF HAMMON AT 438 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH...WITH THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH
WITHIN THE LINE.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. THIS LINE IS CURRENTLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. DUE
TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LINE AND THE INDIVIDUAL STORM MOVEMENTS...
LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

PEOPLE IN CUSTER...DEWEY...MAJOR AND ROGER MILLS COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN
ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
457 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

OKZ011-015-016-142215-
DEWEY OK-CUSTER OK-MAJOR OK-
457 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CUSTER...DEWEY AND MAJOR
COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF
TALOGA TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BUTLER AT 457 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH...WITH THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. THE STORMS IN THE LINE ARE CURRENTLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DIME SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE
LINE...AND THE INDIVIDUAL STORM MOVEMENT...LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS MAY
RESULT IN FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

PEOPLE IN CUSTER...DEWEY AND MAJOR COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

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