A cold front approached from the northwest late in the day on Tuesday May 15th, preceded and accompanied by scattered strong to isolated severe thunderstorms.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ALY wrote it up.
A cold front approached from the northwest late in the day on Tuesday May 15th, preceded and accompanied by scattered strong to isolated severe thunderstorms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 4:10 PM EST, 13 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 510 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT/... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THEY WILL HAVE MORE SUN AND HIGHER DEW POINTS...BUT LACKING ANY TRIGGER. ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AND MOVED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN CATSKILLS. HAVE JUST ISSUED THE FIRST THUDERSTORM WARNING...BUT COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY IS VERY LIMITED. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME 3/4 INCH HAIL. && .SHORT TERM /LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AFTER THE FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY DIMINISHES LATER THIS EVENING... THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH FAIRLY LOW POPS FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH GFS/NAM INDICATE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KALB AROUND 18Z. THUS...THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE EVEN ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES AS ANA FRONT STYLE HEAVY PCPN AREA FORMS BEHIND THE FRONT. CATEGORICAL OR LIKELY POPS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL DIMISH FROM NW TO SE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD AND EVENTUALLY CUTOFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF AND EVEN THE NAM DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THIS EVENT AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT DIFFERENCES TO PLACEMENT FROM RUN TO RUN IS CAUSING SOME BIG DIFFERENCES TO EXPECTED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ALL MODELS AGREE ON COOL WEATHER THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS RESULTS IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL OCCURS. AT THIS POINT HAVE FORECAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDTIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING MOST OF THIS PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY TAKE HOLD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. && .AVIATION /THROUGH SATURDAY/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. MVFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH. CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE PRETTY MUCH RECEDED BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MOST OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR POST COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO AN INCH EXPECTED. HOWEVER...FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD DURING THE WEDNESDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE K-INDICES OF 35 TO 40. K-INDICES OF 35 OR GREATER INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR...ESPECIALLY IN THUNDERSTORMS. SO LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. .FIRE WEATHER... DEW POINTS ON THE RISE TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL TOP OUT AT 80 TO 100 TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL TO MINIMUMS OF 50 T0 75 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 445 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 CTZ001-013-NYZ063>066-161100- NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-WESTERN ULSTER- EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS- 445 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 .DAY ONE...TONIGHT... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THERE IS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MAZ001-025-NYZ047>054-058>061-161100- NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY- EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY- WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE- WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA- 445 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CATSKILLS AND TACONICS OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THERE IS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TO 40 TO 50 MPH WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084-VTZ013>015-161100- NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON- MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON- NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON- WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM- 445 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 417 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 NYZ047-058-059-152100- EASTERN GREENE NY-WESTERN GREENE NY-SCHOHARIE NY- 417 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SCHOHARIE AND GREENE COUNTIES... AT 414 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...SMALL HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORTH BLENHEIM...OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROXBURY...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... PRATTSVILLE...GILBOA AND 8 MILES SOUTH OF NORTH BLENHEIM BY 425 PM EDT WINDHAM BY 435 PM EDT NORTH-SOUTH LAKE CAMPGROUND BY 450 PM EDT CATSKILL AND HIGH FALLS BY 455 PM EDT BGM
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds downed trees, power lines and some power poles near Germantown.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, May 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 33750.