A combination of a prefrontal outflow boundary drapped across northern Indiana and a MCV from overnight convection across Nebraska the night before provided the focus for convection to develop. In addition, unstable conditions develop during the late morning and early afternoon with SBCAPES of 1500 to 2500 j/kg.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.
A combination of a prefrontal outflow boundary drapped across northern Indiana and a MCV from overnight convection across Nebraska the night before provided the focus for convection to develop. In addition, unstable conditions develop during the late morning and early afternoon with SBCAPES of 1500 to 2500 j/kg. Storms began to develop on this boundary during the mid afternoon hours and rapidly became severe across Indiana. A line of storms associated with the MCV and an approaching trough moved across the northern part of Indiana and into extreme southern Michigan. This line evolved into several small bowing segments which produced numerous reports of damaging winds, especially across parts of St Joseph county.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 11:44 AM EST, 2 hours 31 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1244 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 .AVIATION... AT 16Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ERN LAKE HURON...SOUTHWEST INTO NRN MICHIGAN...SRN LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN INTO THE MID MS VLY. THIS FRONT IS FCST TO TRAVERSE THE TAF SITES 21Z AND 02Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WIND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. ATTM...HAVE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AT KSBN AROUND 20Z AND AROUND 23Z AT KFWA. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...BUT LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ...ESPECIALLY FROM HEAVY RAIN...CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AND WILL BE MONITORED. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES BY...CAA AND LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER BELOW THE 2000 FOOT LEVEL OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FCST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AROUND 18Z. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW CIGS TO EVENTUALLY SCATTERED OUT AROUND THAT TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007/ UPDATE... AT 14Z...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NRN LAKE HURON...SOUTHWEST INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...SE WISCONSIN...THEN INTO THE MID MS RIVER VLY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT...SO HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE REGION UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...TEMPS WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. ALTHOUGH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT MEAGER FOR MAY STANDARDS. CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL HAVE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 TO ACHIEVE SBCAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE THE ENTIRE REGION UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TO SEE HOW THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT PANS OUT. /ISSUED 354 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 SHORT TERM... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN MIDWEST...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT. THE HEAVIEST STORMS WERE LOCATED IN NORTHEASTERN WI WHERE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LL THERMODYNAMICS WERE IN PLACE. LOCALLY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS VIA 40 TO 60 KNOT H925 JET WERE AFFECTING WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA ALLOWING BL TO REMAINED MIXED. TEMPS WERE HOVERING IN THE LOWER 70S-UPPER 60S IN THIS AREA. FARTHER EAST LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL IN THE LOWER 60S. SEMI-TRICKY FORECAST IN THE BOOKS TODAY AS FRONTAL TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS BEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FA. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS CWA. HOWEVER...IT IS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FA THAT MAY BE PROBLEMATIC. CURRENT SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ALL AGREEING ON BRINGING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWESTERN CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ABOUT THE TIME CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE REACHED. TWO IMPORTANT METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WILL PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE INITIATION...LAKE MI MODIFICATION OF FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MODIFICATION OF COLD FRONT FROM ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST. BOTH WOULD ALLOW SOME ACCELERATION OF SFC FRONT...PLACING STRONGEST CONVERGENCE ZONE AWAY FROM THE LAKE WITH STRONG SINK BEHIND THIS ZONE. WITH THAT SAID EXPECTING BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO FALL EAST OF A LINE FROM STARKE COUNTY IN...TO ST. JOE COUNTY MI. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE FAVORED. BULK OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF CWA TODAY AND ALLOW SUNSHINE TO COVER THE FA. STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 80S...ESPECIALLY SINCE MANY PLACES WILL HAVE A HEAD START IN THE 70S. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. COMPARING THE WRF TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS REVEALS IT IS DOING A GOOD JOB. HAVE TRENDED MOISTURE ADVECTION TO IT. BY EARLY AFTERNOON EXPECTING 60S DEWPOINTS IN FA. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S WILL PRODUCE ML-CAPE VALUES IN THE 1200 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. EXPECTING SOME MOISTURE POOLING JUST AHEAD OF SFC FRONT...WHICH WOULD EVEN SUPPORT LOCALLY HIGHER CAPE VALUES. WRF HINTS AT THIS. WELL MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6-7 C/KM/...AND STORM MOTION IN DIRECTION OF 30 KNOT 0-3KM SHEAR VECTOR WILL ALLOW A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE WHEN EXPECTED COLD POOL DEVELOPS...TRANSITIONING THUNDERSTORMS INTO A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. MODELS INDICATE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...INCREASING DEEP SHEAR. THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE SEVERE THREAT ALLOWING BETTER STORM STRUCTURE ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT FROM APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE. HAVE TAILORED POPS AND WEATHER FOR THESE CONCERNS. LONG TERM... WED-MON...UPR LEVEL TROF DIGGING SE INTO THE MS VLY TODAY WILL BE OVER THE GRTLKS STATES WED. SFC CDFNT WILL BE OVER THE OH VALLEY IN THE MORNING AND MOVE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVE. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WED MORNING. QUITE COLD ALOFT WITH H5 TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL TO AROUND -22C IN THE AFTN COULD RESULT IN A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS DVLPG DURING THE DAY BUT WITH LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT DURING THE AFTN HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING LOW POPS ATTM. UPR LOW OVER WRN MANITOBA THIS MORNING WILL DROP SEWD ACROSS WI AND NE IL WED NIGHT PSBLY CAUSING SOME SHOWERS IN OUR AREA. BY THU AFTN, RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA PROVIDING FAIR WX... THOUGH COLD TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT CU FIELD AWAY FROM MORE STABLE LM SHADOW. ANOTHER SHRTWV WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE GRTLKS THIS WEEKEND, BUT STRONGER WLYS ALOFT WILL BE FARTHER REMOVED FROM OUR CWA THAN WILL OCCUR EARLIER IN THE WEEK. NET RESULT WILL BE A BACKDOOR CDFNT WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DRY, THOUGH 00Z GFS IS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH QPF ASSOCIATED WITH A WK POST FRONTAL SHRTWV MOVG THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY THAN WAS THE 14/12Z RUN. FOR NOW HAVE JUST INCREASED CLOUDS SOME FOR SUNDAY AND LOWERED HIGH HIGH TEMPS A BIT. RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY PROVIDING WARMER WX. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && AVIATION/UPDATE...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN LONG TERM...TAYLOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 455 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025-160900- LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE- PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN- MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN- CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE- HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON... WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE... MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH... NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR... BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON... ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA... PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA 455 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 /355 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO... SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX LMZ043-046-061-160900- NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI- MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST JOSEPH MI OUT TO MID LAKE- 455 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAMAREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
257 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007
..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0250 PM TSTM WND GST SYRACUSE 41.42N 85.75W
05/15/2007 M61 MPH KOSCIUSKO IN NWS OFFICE
&&
NWSThe Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 109 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:14 UTC.
6 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees were reported down across mainly the northern part of the county.
Several trees and power lines were blown down across the southeast part of the county.
Several trees and power lines reported across the entire county.
A storm survey was performed by NWS personnel of the area between Three Rivers and Mendon, including Fishers Lake. Damage was observed at the Three Rivers Muncipal Airport and at an adjacent residence to the airport. A hangar door was blown open at the airport, with 2 large tree trunks falling onto parked vehicles at a private residence. One of the vehicles had pulled into the driveway due to poor visbility, and before the driver could exit, the tree trunk fell onto the roof of the car, causing minor head injury to the driver. The Three Rivers AWOS (KHAI) recorded a 68 mph wind gust at 548 pm EDT. As the survey progressed along M-60 to some of the back roads, more extensive damage began to be encountered. A barn was found destroyed by a combination of the strong winds and a small shed being picked up and thrown into the barn. An adjacent barn also suffered moderate damage from the wind. Numerous trees limbs were snapped in the yard, as well as the chimney of the 2 story residence being blown over to roof level. Just to the north of this residence a large grove of various hardwood trees suffered extensive damage with many trees being uprooted or snapped. The sandy soil in the area reduced the resistance of the roots somewhat. A residence as well as a barn suffered only minor damage despite the estimated 90 to 95 mph winds. KIWX 88D Base velocity data showed a couplet with 82 kt (94 mph) outbound winds in this general area. Damage continued northeast towards Mendon where trees continued to be damaged as well as 2 barns. |With the strength of the winds, it is possible that a few gust front tornadoes (gustnadoes) may have developed and helped locally focus some of the damage, but by far the strength of the straight line winds was more significant then the potential winds of any gustnadoes.
Several trees and power lines were reported down.
Several additional large trees reported down across the northwestern part of the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, May 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 22638, 22643, 22645, 22653, 22654, 22647.