A combination of a prefrontal outflow boundary drapped across northern Indiana and a MCV from overnight convection across Nebraska the night before provided the focus for convection to develop. In addition, unstable conditions develop during the late morning and early afternoon with SBCAPES of 1500 to 2500 j/kg.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.
A combination of a prefrontal outflow boundary drapped across northern Indiana and a MCV from overnight convection across Nebraska the night before provided the focus for convection to develop. In addition, unstable conditions develop during the late morning and early afternoon with SBCAPES of 1500 to 2500 j/kg. Storms began to develop on this boundary during the mid afternoon hours and rapidly became severe. A line of storms associated with the MCV and an approaching trough moved across the northern part of Indiana. This line evolved into several small bowing segments which produced numerous reports of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 11:44 AM EST, 2 hours 6 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1244 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 .AVIATION... AT 16Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ERN LAKE HURON...SOUTHWEST INTO NRN MICHIGAN...SRN LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN INTO THE MID MS VLY. THIS FRONT IS FCST TO TRAVERSE THE TAF SITES 21Z AND 02Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WIND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. ATTM...HAVE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AT KSBN AROUND 20Z AND AROUND 23Z AT KFWA. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...BUT LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ...ESPECIALLY FROM HEAVY RAIN...CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AND WILL BE MONITORED. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES BY...CAA AND LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER BELOW THE 2000 FOOT LEVEL OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FCST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AROUND 18Z. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW CIGS TO EVENTUALLY SCATTERED OUT AROUND THAT TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007/ UPDATE... AT 14Z...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NRN LAKE HURON...SOUTHWEST INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...SE WISCONSIN...THEN INTO THE MID MS RIVER VLY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT...SO HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE REGION UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...TEMPS WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. ALTHOUGH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT MEAGER FOR MAY STANDARDS. CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL HAVE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 TO ACHIEVE SBCAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE THE ENTIRE REGION UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TO SEE HOW THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT PANS OUT. /ISSUED 354 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 SHORT TERM... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN MIDWEST...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT. THE HEAVIEST STORMS WERE LOCATED IN NORTHEASTERN WI WHERE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LL THERMODYNAMICS WERE IN PLACE. LOCALLY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS VIA 40 TO 60 KNOT H925 JET WERE AFFECTING WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA ALLOWING BL TO REMAINED MIXED. TEMPS WERE HOVERING IN THE LOWER 70S-UPPER 60S IN THIS AREA. FARTHER EAST LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL IN THE LOWER 60S. SEMI-TRICKY FORECAST IN THE BOOKS TODAY AS FRONTAL TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS BEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FA. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS CWA. HOWEVER...IT IS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FA THAT MAY BE PROBLEMATIC. CURRENT SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ALL AGREEING ON BRINGING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWESTERN CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ABOUT THE TIME CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE REACHED. TWO IMPORTANT METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WILL PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE INITIATION...LAKE MI MODIFICATION OF FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MODIFICATION OF COLD FRONT FROM ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST. BOTH WOULD ALLOW SOME ACCELERATION OF SFC FRONT...PLACING STRONGEST CONVERGENCE ZONE AWAY FROM THE LAKE WITH STRONG SINK BEHIND THIS ZONE. WITH THAT SAID EXPECTING BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO FALL EAST OF A LINE FROM STARKE COUNTY IN...TO ST. JOE COUNTY MI. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE FAVORED. BULK OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF CWA TODAY AND ALLOW SUNSHINE TO COVER THE FA. STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 80S...ESPECIALLY SINCE MANY PLACES WILL HAVE A HEAD START IN THE 70S. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. COMPARING THE WRF TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS REVEALS IT IS DOING A GOOD JOB. HAVE TRENDED MOISTURE ADVECTION TO IT. BY EARLY AFTERNOON EXPECTING 60S DEWPOINTS IN FA. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S WILL PRODUCE ML-CAPE VALUES IN THE 1200 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. EXPECTING SOME MOISTURE POOLING JUST AHEAD OF SFC FRONT...WHICH WOULD EVEN SUPPORT LOCALLY HIGHER CAPE VALUES. WRF HINTS AT THIS. WELL MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6-7 C/KM/...AND STORM MOTION IN DIRECTION OF 30 KNOT 0-3KM SHEAR VECTOR WILL ALLOW A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE WHEN EXPECTED COLD POOL DEVELOPS...TRANSITIONING THUNDERSTORMS INTO A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. MODELS INDICATE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...INCREASING DEEP SHEAR. THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE SEVERE THREAT ALLOWING BETTER STORM STRUCTURE ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT FROM APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE. HAVE TAILORED POPS AND WEATHER FOR THESE CONCERNS. LONG TERM... WED-MON...UPR LEVEL TROF DIGGING SE INTO THE MS VLY TODAY WILL BE OVER THE GRTLKS STATES WED. SFC CDFNT WILL BE OVER THE OH VALLEY IN THE MORNING AND MOVE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVE. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WED MORNING. QUITE COLD ALOFT WITH H5 TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL TO AROUND -22C IN THE AFTN COULD RESULT IN A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS DVLPG DURING THE DAY BUT WITH LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT DURING THE AFTN HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING LOW POPS ATTM. UPR LOW OVER WRN MANITOBA THIS MORNING WILL DROP SEWD ACROSS WI AND NE IL WED NIGHT PSBLY CAUSING SOME SHOWERS IN OUR AREA. BY THU AFTN, RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA PROVIDING FAIR WX... THOUGH COLD TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT CU FIELD AWAY FROM MORE STABLE LM SHADOW. ANOTHER SHRTWV WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE GRTLKS THIS WEEKEND, BUT STRONGER WLYS ALOFT WILL BE FARTHER REMOVED FROM OUR CWA THAN WILL OCCUR EARLIER IN THE WEEK. NET RESULT WILL BE A BACKDOOR CDFNT WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DRY, THOUGH 00Z GFS IS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH QPF ASSOCIATED WITH A WK POST FRONTAL SHRTWV MOVG THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY THAN WAS THE 14/12Z RUN. FOR NOW HAVE JUST INCREASED CLOUDS SOME FOR SUNDAY AND LOWERED HIGH HIGH TEMPS A BIT. RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY PROVIDING WARMER WX. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && AVIATION/UPDATE...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN LONG TERM...TAYLOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 455 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025-160900- LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE- PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN- MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN- CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE- HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON... WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE... MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH... NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR... BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON... ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA... PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA 455 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 /355 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO... SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX LMZ043-046-061-160900- NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI- MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST JOSEPH MI OUT TO MID LAKE- 455 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAMAREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP
The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 8 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:48 UTC.
25 thunderstorm wind, 1 tornado, 1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
Recorded at the National Weather Service office.
Two trees were blown down just east of Monon.
There were scattered reports of trees and power lines down across the southern part of the county.
A large limb was blown down onto a road, near Leiters Ford, blocking the road for a short time. In addition, reports of other trees being blown down were received across the northwest part of the county.
Local residents south of New Carlisle reported seeing a funnel pass over several rows of trees, causing some damage to the tree tops. The funnel subsequently touched down in an open field and moved rapdily east. A section of an irrigation system was twisted and destroyed in an open field. In addition, strong winds entered an open barn area resulting in much of the roofing material being removed. The winds also weakened the supports causing partial structural failure to a lean-to. A combine in the lean-to sustained some damage. A large tree also fell onto the residence causing some roof damage. Debris was thrown a few hundred feet into an open field. It appears that the tornado lifted shortly after affecting the residence. No injuries occurred with the brief touch down. The irrigation system damages has been estimated at $13,000. Damage estimates to the house and barn are to be determined.
Numerous trees, tree limbs, power lines and poles were reported down across the county, including Argos, Plymouth, and Bourbon. No reports of significant structure damage were received.
Numerous trees and power lines down across the city of La Porte. Winds were estimated 65 to 70 mph.
A semi was flipped over near the interesection of US-421 and State Route 14.
Numerous trees, tree limbs, power lines and poles were blown down in and around the South Bend/Mishawaka area. A spire from the basilica on the Notre Dame campus was knocked off.
Numerous trees, tree limbs, power lines and poles were blown down across the county. At least one gustnado was sighted by a county sheriff deputy. It touched down in an open field and then lifted without damage. Two large trees fell onto a residence on Ireland St in Monticello causing some roof damage, but luckily no injuries to those home at the time eating supper.
Sporadic tree and power line damage was reported across the county. However the highest concentration of damage was found along a path from Hastings to Milford. In and around the Hastings area, A house suffered damage to a add on room where the shingles were peeled off and thrown into the yard. Numerous trees and power lines down in the town of Milford, closing several streets, with a partially rotten tree falling onto a parked van, destroying the back half of the van and lifting the front right wheel off the ground several inches.
At least 6 homes were damaged by trees or tree limbs, with numerous other homes suffering lost shingles, siding and fascia. Numerous vehicles were also damaged from falling trees. Damage of at least $150,000 is estimated.
Several large branches were blown down.
Numerous trees, tree limbs, power lines reported down in and around Logansport. At least 4 homes were reported to have trees down onto them, suffering minor damage. Some structures also sustained shingle and siding damage. A tree fell onto a car as well.
Two 12 inch diameter or larger trees were blown down.
Local officials reported scattered trees and power lines down across the nothern part of the county.
Two large trees at least 2 feet in diameter were snapped and hit the corner of a house.
Local officials reported receiving scattered tree and power line damage across the central part of the county.
A 12 inch diameter maple tree snapped off and fell onto a garage and power lines.
A maple tree fell onto a business in Winona Lake causing roof damage to the building.
Several trees and power lines down in the area, as well as a recorded 65 mph gust. Some of these trees fell onto occupied residences. Luckily no one was injured in any of these cases. However, one injury was reported when a tree split and a limb fell onto a County Deputy Coroner who was on a motorcycle. He suffered 2 broken bones in the lower part of his legs. At least $100,000 in damage is estimated from the storms.
The cap from a silo was blown off.
Numerous trees, tree limbs, power lines and poles were blown down in and around Albion. One tree branch fell onto a moving van in the HIdden Diamonds Park in Albion. The driver was not injured.
Numerous trees, tree limbs, power lines and poles were down in and around Kendallville. At least 2 vehicles suffered damage from falling trees. A 30 to 40 foot tall maple tree snapped and fell between two houses, luckily not causing any damage to either one.
Fire officials were dispatched to a residence in the Harrison Landing subdivision of Warsaw where lightning struck a house. The fire was contained within 30 minutes. No one was injured in the fire. Damage was estimated at around $40,000.
Two power poles were snapped off.
Several trees were blown down near Ashley.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Indiana, 2007Warnings in Indiana, May 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 22621, 22496, 22510, 22516, 22487, 22524, 22528, 22532, 26510, 22534, 22536, 22540, 22491, 22565, 22567, 22569, 22574, 22581, 22583, 22675, 22587, 22591, 22608, 22590, 26493, 22592, 22593.