Flash Flood and Hail in Arkansas, May 15, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1232 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
TO THE REST OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.(38)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007/

UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST/GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS AND REMOVE MRNG WORDING. SFC CDFNT TO THE NW OF THE FA AT
LATE MRNG...ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR. LOW LVL RH CONTS TO
ADVECT NWD INTO AR AS EVIDENT BY SFC DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S
ATTM OVR CNTRL AND SRN AR. HAVE SEEN SOME ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA FORM
OVR NWRN AR...WITH A FEW MARGINAL STRONG/SVR STORMS. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONT TO INCRS IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTN AS CDFNT
WORKS SEWD INTO AR. POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG/SVR STORMS...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN RISKS. EDGED MAX TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES THIS AFTN OVR CNTRL AND SRN AR AS CLOUDS WL NOT REALLY INCRS
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. UPDATED HRLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. REST
OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE...ALL UPDATES OUT. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN MUCH OF ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER 18Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BUILD INTO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WITH A COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE NOTED...MAINLY AT
KHRO AND KBPK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
TOWARD 00Z AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AGAIN...SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS IN SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING. PREFRONTAL WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 08 TO 12 KNOTS TODAY...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. (46)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
A SHORT WAVE WILL DIP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH MOST OF ITS
IMPACT TO BE FELT NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN QUITE ACTIVE ALREADY SINCE LAST NIGHT WILL BE
PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE AS HAD BEEN EXPECTED FROM EARLIER RUNS.
TIMING WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER BY ABOUT 6 HOURS...SO FORECAST
WILL BE DRY PAST 18Z WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. THE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DOES PEG OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DAY1. IT LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LINEAR NATURE OF
THE STORMS...STRONG WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS TO BE EXPECTED IF SEVERE WEATHER MATERIALIZES. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE TRICKY IN LIGHT OF EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE
START OF PRECIPITATION. MAX AND MINS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. HIGH WILL LIKELY HOLD
ON THROUGH SUNDAY AND PERHAPS EARLY MONDAY BEFORE HEADING SLOWLY TO
THE EAST. BY LATE MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
PLAINS...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN WESTERN ARKANSAS. THERE WILL BE
A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH AT/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  58  74  50 /  50  60  20   0
CAMDEN AR         86  63  77  53 /  40  60  40  10
HARRISON AR       82  52  72  46 /  70  60  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    86  61  75  53 /  50  60  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  60  75  53 /  40  60  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     86  64  78  55 /  40  60  40  10
MOUNT IDA AR      86  57  74  50 /  60  60  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  84  54  73  48 /  60  60  10   0
NEWPORT AR        86  59  74  50 /  40  60  20   0
PINE BLUFF AR     86  63  76  54 /  40  60  30  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   85  57  74  49 /  60  60  10   0
SEARCY AR         87  60  75  51 /  40  60  20   0
STUTTGART AR      87  62  76  54 /  40  60  30  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...38

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-161000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN MUCH OF ARKANSAS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO ARKANSAS FROM
THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT...AND SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT FROM PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHERE SEVERE
WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND
ENOUGH HEATING...SEVERE STORMS COULD BUILD FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO
ARKANSAS.

THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BUILD INTO
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL OR LARGER AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A SLOW WARMING TREND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK
ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

46

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

ARZ003-012-021-151800-
BOONE-JOHNSON-NEWTON-
1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BOONE...JOHNSON AND NEWTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

AT 1226 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF
HARRISON TO OZARK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. WIND GUSTS OF 40 MILES AN
HOUR...AND SMALL HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN BOONE...JOHNSON AND NEWTON COUNTIES...INCLUDING UPPER
BUFFALO WILDERNESS AREA...LOST VALLEY STATE PARK...HORSEHEAD LAKE...
HARRISON...OZONE RECREATION AREA AND DEVILS KNOB...SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

55