Hail and High Wind in New Mexico, May 31, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2007

.DISCUSSION...THE EASTERN PLAINS...TO VARYING DEGREES...WILL BE
AT RISK FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF LATER AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY.
LOOKING AT 2 OR 3 MAIN BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS/MOISTURE SURGES OVER
THAT PERIOD WITH THE NEXT ONE...ONE OF THE STRONGER ONES...TO BE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGER ONES WILL ALSO BRING THE
SEVERE OR AT LEAST STRONG STORM POTENTIAL RIGHT UP TO THE EAST
SLOPES OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THIS EVENING THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO BE MOST AT
RISK...BUT SUN AND PERHAPS MON MAY BE THE BEST CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  46  88  48  90 /   0   0   0   5
GALLUP..........................  37  86  38  86 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  40  85  41  85 /   0   0   0  10
GLENWOOD........................  50  91  48  92 /   0   0   0   5
CHAMA...........................  29  75  32  75 /   0   5   5  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  47  82  49  78 /   0   0   5  10
RED RIVER.......................  37  66  34  69 /   0  10  10  20
TAOS............................  37  80  41  79 /   0   5  10  20
SANTA FE........................  47  83  50  81 /   0  10   5  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  47  86  50  83 /   0   5   5  20
ESPANOLA........................  51  88  52  86 /   0   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  58  89  60  87 /   0   0   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  59  90  61  87 /   0   0   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  53  89  55  86 /   0   0   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  57  90  59  90 /   0   0   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  61  92  60  88 /   0   0   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  50  84  50  82 /   0  10  10  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  49  85  54  83 /   0  10  10  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  92  60  90 /   0  10  10  20
RUIDOSO.........................  56  81  55  80 /  10  10  10  20
RATON...........................  44  78  47  76 /  20  40  20  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  43  80  45  75 /   5  20  10  20
ROY.............................  54  79  52  77 /  20  30  20  30
CLAYTON.........................  53  75  52  77 /  30  20  30  30
SANTA ROSA......................  56  90  57  85 /  20  20  10  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  58  88  57  84 /  30  30  20  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  57  92  60  84 /  20  20  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  58  89  58  84 /  30  20  20  20
PORTALES........................  58  90  59  86 /  30  20  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  62  96  63  91 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
502 AM MDT THU MAY 31 2007

CORRECTED THE SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

NMZ001>021-026-011200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
502 AM MDT THU MAY 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO/S EASTERN PLAINS.
THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
FRIDAY...SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR EASTERN COLFAX...EASTERN MORA...EASTERN SAN
MIGUEL...EASTERN GUADALUPE...EASTERN DE
BACA...UNION...HARDING...QUAY...CURRY...ROSSEVELT AND CHAVES
COUNTIES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR EASTERN COLFAX...EASTERN MORA...EASTERN SAN
MIGUEL...UNION...HARDING...QUAY...CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY
BE REQUIRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
318 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2007

NMZ019-312200-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
318 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY...

AT 314 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO THIRD INCH IN DIAMETER NEAR ROSWELL. MOVEMENT WAS
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BITTER LAKE WILDLIFE
REFUGE AND ROSWELL.

THIS STORM WAS NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

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