Tornado and Hail in Kansas, May 31, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
321 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

TSRA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN A -16 TO -18C 5H THERMAL TROF WHICH
WAS LOCATED NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 25H JET THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO STILL WATCHING OUR NEXT S/W TROF WHICH WAS LOCATED
OVER SRN WY BASED ON 12Z ANALYSIS AS IT CONTINUES ITS SE TRACK
ACROSS NRN CO. AS THIS SECOND SYSTEM CROSSES INTO ERN COLORADO
LATER THIS EVENING STILL EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND THEN BEGIN TO QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A MCS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THIS
MCS STILL LOOKING REASONABLE SO WILL RETAIN FLOOD WATCH WHICH WE
CURRENTLY HAVE GOING BUT WITH BASED ON PROGGED STORM MOTION
PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKING LESS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
FURTHER SOUTHWEST SO WILL NOT BE EXPANDING THE WARNING FURTHER SW.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THERE WILL A RISK A FEW TORNADOES
EARLY BASED ON SHEAR AND INSTAB...THEN BECOMING MORE OF A HAIL AND
WIND HAZARD ONCE THE MCS GETS ORGANIZED.

WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL DRIVE THE POTENTIAL OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER S/W TROF PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA ON FRIDAY AS MID LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTH. NOTICING
DECENT MOISTURE AND 85H-7H FGEN ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT
DROPS SOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY SO WILL KEEP SOME HIGH CHC POPS GOING
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THEN LATER IN THE DAY AS THIS MID-UPPER
LEVEL LIFT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE THERE WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AT THIS TIME NOT CONFIDENT
ON WHERE THIS FRONT WILL BE SO AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM SFC POSITION WHICH WILL PLACE OUR
SE CWA IN A FAVORABLE ARE FOR STORMS BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

DAYS 3-7...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FCST FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
IT APPEARS BY MID-NEXT WEEK FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC JET ENERGY
WILL BEGIN ENTERING THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS...SUPPORTING
FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEE CYCLOGENESIS.  AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AROUND MID-NEXT WEEK...THERE IS
JUST THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
WILL INSERT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA POPS FOR MID-NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...

REALLY HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO FORECAST TIMING OF
CONVECTION FOR TONIGHT AT ALL THREE TAF SITES (DDC,GCK,HYS).  AM
EXPECTING EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE MAINLY WEST OVER
FAR WESTERN KANSAS BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A CB IN THE CLOUD
COVER GROUP BEGINNING ROUGHLY 23Z.  THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME WAS VERY
DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT FOR CONVECTION LOCATION/TIMING WITH THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT STILL LIKELY OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AT 09Z.
WILL PLAY THE TAFS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH JUST VCTS FOR
NOW AND PROB30 FOR TSRA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  59  76  55 /   0  70  50  20
GCK  78  57  71  53 /  30  60  30  10
EHA  79  57  78  56 /  20  60  10  30
LBL  80  59  79  55 /  10  70  20  30
HYS  77  56  73  53 /  20  70  50  10
P28  80  63  78  60 /   0  70  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-064>066-079-081.

&&

FN18/25/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
435 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-011000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
435 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007 /335 AM MDT THU MAY 31 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
AND RAPID GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATE TODAY. THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO AND THEN
ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX THIS EVENING AS THEY SPREAD EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND PERHAPS SATURDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN ERUPT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

EKB