An active round of severe thunderstorms impacted the South Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours of the 31st. Thunderstorms initiated along a dryline over the western South Plains during the late afternoon hours.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
An active round of severe thunderstorms impacted the South Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours of the 31st. Thunderstorms initiated along a dryline over the western South Plains during the late afternoon hours. Convective modes were mixed between multicell clusters and isolated supercell storms. A cluster of severe storms over southeastern Hale County and western Floyd County produced very large hail, at least two tornadoes and flash flooding. One supercell storm additionally affected portions of western Hale County with very large hail up to the size of baseballs.
More scattered convection initiated during the evening hours and moved east across the South Plains region. Several storms produced damaging thunderstorm winds and hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 31, 2:25 PM CST, 2 hours 16 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 325 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007 .SHORT TERM... ATTENTION CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON A POTENTIALLY TWO PRONGED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS IN REFERENCE TO THE INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG INSTABILITY FROM THE NEW MEXICO PLAINS EASTWARD OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FA...JUST SOUTH OF AN APPARENT DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT DOES NOT EXIST WITH THIS BOUNDARY...IT IS EVIDENT AS A STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND IS SEEN IN THE CU FIELD/VIS IMAGERY. INFLUENCES OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING LIKELY EXIST ALONG THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF TODAY/S PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. WEAK FORCING/ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD AREAS TO OUR SOUTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING...AS SEEN IN CURRENT MID CLOUD/VAPOR ENHANCEMENT. THUS IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT CONVECTION INITIATING OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL CO-EXIST...ESPECIALLY AROUND/AFTER SUNSET. A FEW SUPERCELLS SEEM POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASING WIND FIELDS...AND EXPECT SEVERE THREATS WILL INCLUDE VERY LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. A SECONDARY AND PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE LATER IN THE EVENING/AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN A MATURE MCS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA IN PROXIMITY TO THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HAVE MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT NEAR THE NORTHERN ZONES. STORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE WITH US...WITH A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. .LONG TERM... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LOW MEANDERING AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST OVER THE WEEKEND...AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK. UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON MONDAY...THEN BEGINNING TO FLATTEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH ECMWF AND CANADIAN DIGGING A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILTED TROFF INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. GFS AND NOGAPS HAVE SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY LINE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND TRIPLE POINT VICINITY OF CLOVIS NEW MEXICO. THESE FEATURES TO ACT AS FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT. THERE MAY STILL BE ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER MY SOUTHEAST ZONES SATURDAY MORNING FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN ON SUNDAY. THUS CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS AND NIGHTS AS GFS INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LEE SIDE TROFF EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TEXAS NEW MEXICO BORDER NEXT TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT CLEAR SKIES AT KLBB WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TIMING OF SAID ONSET...BUT SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TREND TOWARD LOWER CEILINGS AFTER 03Z. BEST POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE DURING THE 10Z TO 14Z TIMEFRAME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 59 85 58 82 56 / 40 40 40 20 30 TULIA 58 83 58 80 59 / 50 40 50 20 30 PLAINVIEW 61 84 60 81 61 / 40 20 50 20 30 LEVELLAND 63 86 61 82 61 / 40 20 30 20 20 LUBBOCK 66 86 62 82 63 / 40 20 40 20 20 BROWNFIELD 65 86 63 83 62 / 40 20 30 20 20 CHILDRESS 67 84 65 81 64 / 60 30 50 20 30 SPUR 66 86 64 82 64 / 40 20 50 20 30 ASPERMONT 69 87 65 84 66 / 50 20 50 30 30 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && 20/08/20
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1252 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007 TXZ021>044-011800- PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- 1252 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT CONVECTIVE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND A RETREATING ALBEIT SUBTLE FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE MAY LIMIT THIS DEVELOPMENT. MODERATE LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS...THOUGH AN ISOLATE TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THEN...THE THREAT WILL TRANSITION TOWARD DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE STORMS MERGE INTO A LINE OR COMPLEX. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THIS AREA. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SOME STORMS BECOMING SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. IF THE STORMS DEVELOP INTO A LARGE COMPLEX DURING THE EVENING...DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO LATE SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE STORMS WOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 501 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007 TXZ027-028-312230- BAILEY TX-LAMB TX- 501 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS LAMB AND BAILEY COUNTIES... AT 457 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN ENOCHS AND BULA...OR ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF MORTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY. BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 528 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007 TXZ027-028-034-312315- BAILEY TX-LAMB TX-HOCKLEY TX- 528 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HOCKLEY...LAMB AND BAILEY COUNTIES... AT 527 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND WEST OF LITTLEFIELD...SUDAN... AND NORTHWEST OF LEVELLAND. THE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH AND HAVE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 81 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:42 UTC.
11 hail, 5 thunderstorm wind, 2 tornado, 2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Storm spotters reported large hail up to the size of ping-pong balls along a swath from Sudan to U.S. Highway 70 just east of Springlake.
Nickel size hail was reported just east of Cotton Center on Farm to Market Road 37.
Golf ball size hail was reported by the Tulia Police Department south of Tulia on Interstate 27.
There were multiple reports of large hail ranging in size from quarters to golf balls in and around Petersburg as a cluster of severe thunderstorms impacted southeastern Hale County. Hail reportedly covered the ground in Petersburg. Local agricultural agents reported some crop damage in the area.
Skywarn spotters reported penny size hail from Farm to Market Road 179 south of Cotton Center to east of town. This hail was associated with a supercell thunderstorm that moved east across western and central Hale county. Additional reports indicated very large hail along the swath.
Local fire department officials reported a brief tornado just south of Petersburg. The tornado remained in rural areas and did not result in any damage.
Numerous reports of large hail up to the size of half dollars were received as a cluster of severe thunderstorms moved east out of Hale County over western and central Floyd County.
Floyd County emergency management officials reported very large hail that briefly fell up to the size of tennis balls near the intersection of Farm to Market Roads 54 and 378. No damage was reported.
The Ralls Fire Department reported a brief tornado in extreme southwestern Floyd County as a supercell storm moved eastward from the Petersburg area. The tornado was brief and remained in open fields.
Law enforcement officials reported baseball size hail east of Cotton Center on Farm to Market Road 37. No damage was reported.
Newspaper articles reported damaging thunderstorm winds up to 70 miles per hour across northern Yoakum County. The worst damage was reported near Farm to Market Road 1780 where a number of irrigation systems and utility poles were damaged.
The public estimated a thunderstorm wind gust up to 60 miles per hour in Cotton Center. No damage was reported.
Law enforcement reported large hail up to the size of quarters between Bronco and Plains. Reports indicated severe damage to cotton crops east of Bronco.
The public reported golf ball size hail just north of Spade.
Many reports of flash flooding were received from near the Hale and Floyd County line northeastward to Floydada. Many secondary roads were inundated by flowing flood waters including Farm to Market Road 54. In Floydada, a playa lake on the south side of the city flooded and caused high water to threaten a number of mobile homes and two businesses. High water also flowed over Highway 62 south of the city.
Skywarn spotters reported flash flooding that resulted in flowing water over Farm to Market Road 54 east of Petersburg.
Law enforcement officials reported that thunderstorm winds downed several utility poles in Tokio.
The Texas Tech University West Texas Mesonet recorded a thunderstorm wind gust of 59 miles per hour near Roaring Springs. No damage was reported.
The Texas Tech University West Texas Mesonet site near Paducah recorded a thunderstorm wind gust to 60 miles per hour.
The Paducah fire department reported nickel size hail just southwest of the city.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Texas, 2007Warnings in Texas, May 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 34879, 34880, 34881, 34882, 34883, 34884, 34885, 34886, 34887, 34896, 34898, 34888, 34889, 34895, 34892, 34893, 34897, 34890, 34894, 34891.