A strong thunderstorm produced isolated flash flooding in parts of Republic county during the late afternoon and early evening.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
A strong thunderstorm produced isolated flash flooding in parts of Republic county during the late afternoon and early evening.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 31, 1:29 PM CST, 3 hours 6 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 229 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007 .DISCUSSION... FAIRLY COMPLEX PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY...DELINEATING A TROPICAL AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH. A WEAK LEE TROUGH WAS FORMING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH RESULTED IN A MODIFIED TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD. THIS ALSO WILL BE ONE OF THE LIKELY FOCUSES FOR EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE FOUND AT THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. LOOKING ABOVE THE SFC...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW PROVIDING ENHANCED PERIODS OF LIFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A MCS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BUT FAIRLY ROBUST AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD WITH WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND A LLJ OF 35-40 KTS. CURRENT INDICATIONS PLACE THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING IT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST JUXTAPOSED. IN ADDITION...PW VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.50 INCHES AND NEAR SATURATED GROUNDS COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM CONVECTION WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WILL LEAD TO A FLASH FLOODING CONCERN. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR FRIDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE NOT YET RESOLVED FROM TONIGHTS ACTIVITY. BEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST MCS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE STILL EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DURING THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ANY LARGE SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MAIN FOCUS MAY CENTER ALONG FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THAT MAY BE ONGOING. AS INITIAL ACTIVITY CLEARS THE CWA...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION APPEARS REASONABLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE LESSER THAN TONIGHT. LARGEST UNCERTAINTY FALLS ON THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION. REGARDLESS...ANY NEW CONVECTION MAY FURTHER AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WHERE PERSISTENT INTENSE CONVECTION OCCURS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL BE BRIEF WITH MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. GFS AND NAM BRING BOUNDARY SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN UPPER FLOW PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY AND PW OF 1.5 OR MORE IN THE COLUMN...HAVE KEPT SOLID CHANCE POPS AND QPF NUMBERS GIVING UP TO .75 INCHES OF PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA. ALSO ADDED SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER AS NEXT RIPPLE OF ENERGY MAY INTERACT WITH HEATING AND BRING SHOWERS THERE...AND DID SIMILARLY FOR SUNDAY. KEPT A DRY FORECAST MON-WED AS FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AND BRINGS THE RETURN OF THE SURFACE LEE TROF BY WED AFTERNOON. SOME INDICATIONS FROM GFS OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY ON AND OFF THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PINPOINT AND/OR TIME ATTM. SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL US ON THURSDAY AND BRING NEXT FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN INTO EASTERN KS. HAVE GONE NEAR HPC GUIDANCE SLT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...ALSO SINCE GFS MAY BE THE LEAST AMPLIFIED OF THE SOLUTIONS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP WED AND THURS. BLAIR/67 && .AVIATION... SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ADDRESSES SPECIFIC WEATHER EXPECTATIONS AS RELATED TO THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES. CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO PROGRESSIVELY LOWER AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES WITH CUMULONIMBUS TOWERS AND TURBULENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MINOR LLWS MAY EXIST AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT. BLAIR && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COUNCIL GROVE TO TOPEKA TO LAWRENCE LINE...KSZ008>012-KSZ020>024-KSZ026-KSZ034>040. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 354 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-011400- REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY- POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS- WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON- 354 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO BOTH FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A COUNCIL GROVE TO LAWRENCE LINE. MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE BIG BLUE RIVER. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE BIG BLUE RIVER ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 429 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007 KSZ008-020-312230- CLOUD-REPUBLIC- 429 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL MOVE EAST AT 40 MPH AND APPROACH WESTERN REPUBLIC AND NORTHWEST CLOUD COUNTIES BETWEEN 5 PM AND 515 PM CDT. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE. PERSONS IN REPUBLIC AND NORTHWEST CLOUD COUNTIES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THIS STORM IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.
The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 68 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:37 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Wind gust of at least 60mph reported by Law Enforcement. Tree limbs broken off. Very heavy rain and small hail also reported.
Water flowing over Fir road one-half mile east of the city of Republic...as well as 2 miles west of highway 81 on Fir road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, May 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 35902, 32585.