Coastal Flood and High Wind in New Jersey, November 22 to 23, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FARTHER TO THE NW PREVENTING THE TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING ESP ALONG THE SHORE AREAS. THE CLDS MAY THIN OUT AS THE
TOPS ARE SHEARED OFF TO THE ENE LEAVING A THIN LAYER OF HIGH CLDS
OVER THE AREA, BUT DONT THINK TEMPS LIKELY TO SEE EARLIER MINS ALSO
GIVEN THE WIND TRAJ. HAVE CHANGED OVERNIGHT MINS AND ADDED A FEW CLDS
TO THE GRID FIELDS. NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED. SURE WANT TO SEE
THE DEW POINTS AND TEMPS CLIMB WITH THE MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ALONG
THE COAST. GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.

HAVE A GOOD NIGHT AND A GREAT THANKSGIVING
&&
EBERWINE/ROBINSON

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT MID AFTERNOON, LOW PRESSURE WAS INTENSIFYING OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST.  MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEW
ENGLAND TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

MOST OF THE MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN
HANDLING THE LOW, AS WELL AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH, AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  THE LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED OFF CAPE
HATTERAS ON THURSDAY MORNING.  IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON THE LOWS FORWARD PROGRESS DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD.

WEVE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS
AND THE PRECIP WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WAS ALREADY UP INTO SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE WAS
SOME STRATOCUMULUS SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST OFF THE OCEAN,
ALSO CLIPPING SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.
IT WAS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS, BUT
IT APPEARED AS THOUGH THE LOWER CLOUDS HAD A BACK EDGE IN THE VCNTY
OF 40 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE.  AS A RESULT, THEY MAY CLEAR OUT OF
OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING, LEAVING ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDS.

OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF THE HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT, THEN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY.  BY DAYS END, OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE UNDER
AN OVERCAST SKY, EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE POCONOS AND FOR NORTHWESTERN
NEW JERSEY.

WELL BE SPEEDING UP THE ONSET OF THE RAIN IN THE FORECAST.  THERE
IS NOW A CHANCE FOR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ON THE DELMARVA
(SOUTH OF THE CANAL) AND IN EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.  THE RAIN
WILL SPREAD UP INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  THE RAIN
EVENT SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF AN INCH IN MUCH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA.   AN INCH OF RAIN COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.  HOWEVER, IT SHOULDNT CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS.

THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND
THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS AND HEAVY SEAS ALONG THE COAST.  THE COASTAL ISSUES ARE
ADDRESSED BELOW IN THE MARINE AND TIDE SECTIONS.

AS THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  IT NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH ITS AXIS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
OUR REGION ON MONDAY.  AS THE HIGH PASSES OFF THE COAST, A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH STRATOCUMULUS ALONG CENTRAL NEW JERSEY COASTAL SECTIONS AND
ON SOUTH ARE CAUSING SOME MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AT ACY THIS
AFTERNOON THEY DO APPEAR TO BE DISSIPATING ON THE LAST COUPLE OF
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES, HOWEVER, AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY MIV WILL BE
SIMILARLY AFFECTED.

HIGHER MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP, AND THESE SHOULD LOWER DURING LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE CHANCE OF RAIN WAS LEFT OUT OF
ACY AND MIV FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE TIMING OF THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY WAS BROUGHT FORWARD A BIT, INTO THE COMING
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP LATE TONIGHT AND
CERTAINLY BY MORNING.  THEN, THE GALE WARNING WILL BE EXTENDED TO
THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORMS
EFFECTS EDGE NORTHWARD.  WE WILL LEAVE THE GALE WARNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AT THIS POINT, BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A BIT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE GUSTS DIMINISH BELOW CRITERIA.

EVEN THOUGH ITS NOT REALLY IN SEASON, WE WILL ISSUE A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY BASED ON 8 FOOT PLUS OFFSHORE SEAS.  THE BEACHES LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL TAKE A POUNDING FOR SEVERAL TIDE CYCLES, AND AT LEAST SOME
BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
SOUTHWARD.

ONE HOPES THIS IS NOT THE START OF A SEASON LIKE WAS HAD IN 1997-98,
WHEN A SUCCESSION OF EL NINO NOREASTERS CAUSED A GREAT DEAL OF
BEACH DAMAGE THAT COOL SEASON.

&&

.TIDES...
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
COASTAL AREA, AS STORM SURGE GUIDANCE IS NOW BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THURSDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE WILL BE THE HIGHER OF THE TWO CYCLES, BUT EVEN IF ANOMALIES
DIMINISH BY THEN, THEY COULD STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE AREAS OF
MODERATE FLOODING.  CRITERIA DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MET FARTHER NORTH,
SO A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE AREAS NORTH OF THE WATCH.

WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW, IT IS FELT THAT OUR NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND
ZONES BORDERING CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL NOT HAVE THE SAME EFFECT AS OUR
OCEAN-FRONT AND BACK BAY ZONES IF WATER WAS FUNNELING UP THE BAY ON
A SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST FLOW, IT WOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY WITH THE
APPROPRIATE EKMAN PUMPING.  AT THIS POINT, WE WILL LEAVE THESE AREAS
OUT OF THE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING STATEMENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NJZ014-024>026 FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4
     PM THURSDAY.
  ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR NJZ012>014-020-026-027 FROM 7 PM
     WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM THURSDAY.
  ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR NJZ022>025 FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM
     THURSDAY.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR DEZ003-004 FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM
     THURSDAY.
  ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR DEZ004 FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM
     THURSDAY.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ430-450-451 FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM
     THURSDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ430-450-451 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
  ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ431-452>455 UNTIL 5 PM THURSDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...IOVINO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
428 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-015>019-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-222130-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
428 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE, THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND
NEW JERSEY, EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

ANZ430-431-450>455-DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-222130-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
428 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE, THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND
NEW JERSEY, EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE LOWER DELAWARE
BAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DELAWARE AND
NEW JERSEY COASTS FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
COAST AND THE RARITAN BAY FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COASTS INCLUDING THE DELAWARE BAY FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

GALE WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING FOR ALL OF
THE COASTAL WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EBERWINE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
951 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006

NJZ010-012>014-020-026-027-221200-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...
SANDY HOOK...JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST
951 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006

...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST. AS A RESULT, THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER SCENARIO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WE ANTICIPATE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
EROSION. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOONTIME WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A POWERFUL STORM, BUT A PERSISTENT
ONE THAT WILL AFFECT DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE REGION AT DIFFERENT
TIMES. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND THE RARITAN
BAY ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE SPEEDS OR
39 MPH, AND MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST, WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE STRONGER EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS, ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MINOR AND POSSIBLY
EVEN MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE.

THE HIGHEST OF THE TWO DAILY HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 8 AND
10 AM ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS AND
EVENINGS. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING BEGINS AT 6.7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER
LOW WATER. BE SURE YOU MOVE YOUR VEHICLE IF YOU HAPPEN TO LIVE IN
AN AREA SUBJECT TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

EBERWINE