Winter Storm in Pennsylvania, November 24 to 25, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
444 AM EDT THU NOV 24 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRIDAY)...

NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA (REST OF THE AREA SEE
BELOW)...

ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS MICHIGAN AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OHIO AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING.  FLOW WILL BECOME
WELL ALIGNED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND START TO SET UP MULTIPLE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND SQUALLS TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE AFTER 7 AM
THIS MORNING.  FLOW SHOULD REMAIN WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY
CAUSING BANDS TO EXTEND WELL INLAND ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A FOOT WHERE
SQUALLS PERSIST TODAY.  FLOW TRIES TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SETTING UP A COUPLE INTENSE SNOW BANDS
THROUGH CLEVELAND ACROSS LAKE...NORTHERN GEAUGA AND ASHTABULA
COUNTIES INTO ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA.  ANOTHER
BAND COULD SET UP WEST TO EAST FROM THE LAKE INTO ERIE PA.

LAKE INDUCED CAPES INDICATED PER BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS UP AROUND
1400 J/KG REMAINING CONSISTENT FROM MODEL RUN TO RUN I WOULD
ANTICIPATE THERE BEING SOME THUNDER SNOW IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS.
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BE UP AROUND 12000 FEET SO THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR CLOUD TOPS TO CLIMB TO CONSIDERABLE HEIGHTS COMPARED TO THE
USUAL 5000 TO 7000 FOOT TOPS WE NORMALLY GET.

WITH INTENSE BAND EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY SOME AREAS STILL HAVE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO MAYBE EVEN 3 FEET
WHERE THE SQUALLS PERSIST.  THUNDER SNOW WILL PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR.

OTHER PROBLEM TO DEAL WITH IS GUSTY WINDS.  WINDS UPSTREAM ARE ABOUT
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 30S.  LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIP INTO
EASTERN ONTARIO AS IT ROUNDS THE BEND OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SO WINDS SHOULD BE HIGHER OVER OUR AREA
COMPARED TO UPSTREAM.  I AM ANTICIPATING GUSTS TO 45
MPH...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE SHORE.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO TURN DRASTICALLY COLDER OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.  I WILL MENTION TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH
THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TONIHGT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND RISING BACK TO ONLY THE 20S FOR
FRIDAY.

REST OF THE AREA...WE CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AND OR A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WIND AND SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE DECIDED
TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE FOR NOW.  SNOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD
NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE OF ACCUMULATIONS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  SO WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT OVER THESE AREAS.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO TURN DRASTICALLY COLDER OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.  I WILL MENTION TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH
THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TONIHGT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND RISING BACK TO ONLY THE 20S FOR
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL THE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE
AND SHIFT THE WIND AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND FORCE THE
PRECIPITATION BACK OUT OVER THE LAKE. I PRETTY MUCH STAYED CLOSE TO
THE EUROPEAN MODEL AS THE LONG RANGE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE A BIT
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS FEATURE MAY JUST BRING SOME CLOUDS AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT I SHADED THE
TEMPERATURES BACK A BIT DUE TO SNOW PACK THAT WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT
IN THE NORTHEAST SNOW BELT AREAS.  I THINK SNOW ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA SHOULD MELT OFF PRETTY QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE UPPER PLAINS STATES
AND FORCE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY.  THE
LOW THEN TAKES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION(06Z-06Z)...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS MOVING THROUGH THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH CLE AROUND 05Z.
SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE LAKESHORE. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AFT THE FROPA. ATTM MOST OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
FROM E OF CLE INTO ERI BUT N OF YNG. ELSW SOME SCATTERED MVFR TO IFR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO NW OH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. &&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING THRU FRIDAY EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO. GALE
WARNING LAKE ERIE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING THRU FRIDAY. GALE WARNING LAKE ERIE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY/KOSARIK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA

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