Hail in Montana, June 16, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
247 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2005

.SHORT TERM...LOTS OF HIGH CLOUD COVER SLOWED HEATING MUCH OF THE
DAY AND HAS LOWERED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INTO MID
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GOING INTO LATE AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THAT
IS SUFFICIENT HEATING UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TO
POSSIBLE STILL GET A FEW STRONG STORMS INTO THE EVENING. AS THE MAIN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND DIRECTS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER NORTHCENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP...BUT MORE RAIN PRODUCERS THAN
SEVERE WEATHER. A STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WILL
NEED TO KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON NORTHWEST MONTANA FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS... ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT OTHER AREAS AS WELL. SOME DRYING
AND STABILIZATION IS LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY WITH UPPER LOW
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...GENERALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE MAIN STORY FOR THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK IS WARMING TREND AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS WELL ADVERTISED IN GOING FORECAST...
SO NO CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE MORE GENERAL SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS IS
LIKELY TO MOISTEN ENOUGH BY FRIDAY TO CAUSE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAUCK
LONG TERM....SIGLER
AVIATION...BAUCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
815 AM MDT THU JUN 16 2005

IDZ005>010-MTZ001>007-043-170600-
NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-
OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION-LOWER HELLS CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION-
WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY-EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY-KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION-
WEST GLACIER REGION-FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-
LOWER CLARK FORK REGION-MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS-
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-BUTTE/PINTLAR REGION-
BLACKFOOT REGION-
815 AM MDT THU JUN 16 2005 /715 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS
THESE TWO FEATURES ENTER THE REGION...STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER
THE CLEARWATERS...BITTERROOTS...SAPPHIRES AND LEMHI COUNTY
BETWEEN 1 TO 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MONTANA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND HAIL LARGER THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
DIAMETER.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF THE BEST INSTABILITY SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL MONTANA.

ANYONE WHO HAS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED IN WESTERN MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

weather.gov/missoula