Hail in Kansas, June 16, 2005

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
313 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GREW UP THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AS A MCV FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION STALLED OVERHEAD.  TROUGHING
ALOFT ALSO MAKING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A WIDENING AREA OF
SHOWERS WHICH REALLY TOOK OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT THE RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND AND A VORTMAX DIVES SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA.

THE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TO SUPPRESS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA.  THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO OUR
KANSAS COUNTIES. WHERE MID 60 DEW POINTS AND AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 80S EXIST.  CAPE VALUES OF OVER 3000 J/KG EXIST ACROSS OUR
KANSAS COUNTIES. 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM KLBF AND KDDC ARE
INTERESTING AND SHOW THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  WIND PROFILES
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...PROBLEM IS THE CAP SO WE WILL NEED TO
WAIT PERHAPS ANOTHER HOUR OR MORE BEFORE STORMS FIRE THERE.
ACROSS NEBRASKA LOOK FOR THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING FOR
ALL EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

FOR FRI...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE ON S FLOW. BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL REMAIN OVER WI/MN. AS SFC LOW OVER MT AND
LEE TROUGH INTENSIFIES...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AND BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY TO WESTERN ZONES. H5 RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS IN WITH SUBSIDENCE...AND DRY FCST CONTINUED THROUGH SAT....
ALTHOUGH WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
STRATUS SAT MORN...ALTHOUGH EASTERN ZONES LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH BL RH BELOW 70 PERCENT. IN THE EXTENDED...AT H5...
UKMET/ECMWF/GFS BUILD RIDGE THROUGH SUN AND MON. 12Z GFS/NAM BRINGS
IN THICKNESSES OF 585DAM BY SUN EVENING WHICH SHOULD BRING THE ENTIRE
CWA ABOVE 90 FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. H7 TEMPS ABOVE 14C...AND NAM MODEL
SOUNDINGS CAP ATM NEAR H8 WITH TEMPS 22-23C. DRY FCST CONTINUES
ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR FROPA INCREASING WITH OOZ/12Z GFS RUNS. SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM QUESTIONABLE...BUT IF FRONT DOES
MAKE IT INTO THE CWA LOOKS LIKE MON NIGHT/TUES TIME-FRAME. THIS WOULD
BRING CHANCES FOR T...ALTHOUGH GRIDS CURRENTLY LEFT DRY. TEMPS ON MON
WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CLIMO...AND REMAINDER OF EXTENDED DEPENDENT ON
STRENGTH OF RIDGE AND INFLUENCE OF FRONT. IF FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH...BOUNDARY WILL PRESENT CHANCES FOR T TUES AND WED WITH TEMPS
NEAR CLIMO. CONTINUED DRY FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

HIRSCH/CONNOLLY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
353 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-171200-
ADAMS NE-BUFFALO NE-CLAY NE-DAWSON NE-FILLMORE NE-FRANKLIN NE-
FURNAS NE-GOSPER NE-GREELEY NE-HALL NE-HAMILTON NE-HARLAN NE-
HOWARD NE-KEARNEY NE-MERRICK NE-NANCE NE-NUCKOLLS NE-PHELPS NE-
POLK NE-SHERMAN NE-THAYER NE-VALLEY NE-WEBSTER NE-YORK NE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAND ISLAND...HASTINGS...HOLDREGE...
KEARNEY...LEXINGTON AND YORK
353 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING SEVERE INTO THE
EVENING. HOWEVER LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SEVERE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED INTO THE EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWER CASE)

KSZ005>007-017>019-171200-
JEWELL KS-MITCHELL KS-OSBORNE KS-PHILLIPS KS-ROOKS KS-SMITH KS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PHILLIPSBURG
353 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING.
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS MADE FOR AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS WAS SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND
THIS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY HINDRANCE IS THE WIND SHEAR WHICH IS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS AT THIS TIME. THUS THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS SHOULD BE LARGE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWER CASE)

EWALD