Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, June 16, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
350 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

.SHORT TERM...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING OFF SACRAMENTO MTNS ARE STRUGGLING TO
RETAIN THEIR STRUCTURE AS THEY MOVE TWD A FORT SUMNER TO ARTESIA
LINE. WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW STORMS CROSS OVER STATE LINE BY 00Z OR
SO WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS DUE TO VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH BASES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MCS EVOLVING OVER KANSAS/CO
AND PROPAGATING SOUTH TWD EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA AS H85
LLJ CRANKS UP TO NR 40 KTS. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT KCDS VCNTY
MAY BE CLIPPED BY EDGE OF MCS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BUILD BACK WEST
ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRY. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE
LARGE HAIL. AT THIS TIME...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEPICT BULK OF
PRECIP TO REMAIN OVER THE SOONER STATE BUT EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED
TO CLOSELY MONITOR ADVERTISED MCS AS IT DEVELOPS AND BEGINS ITS TREK
SOUTH.

OTHERWISE...DRY AND TOASTY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS
H50 RIDGE SUPPRESSES CONVECTION TOMORROW. SFC WINDS MAY BE A BIT
TRICKY DURG THE AFTN AS MODELS PROG A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN CWFA AND MOVE IT INTO THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS. ASSOCIATED
EASTERLY WINDS OFF THE CAPROCK SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR
90S...WITH UPR 90S TO NR 100 ACRS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...
STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. CONVECTIVE INITIATION POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. COULD SEE A COMPLEX OF STORMS ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COUPLED WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS SHOULD SUPPRESS THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. KEPT A POP FREE FORECAST RIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG AMPLIFIED 594+ DM
RIDGE HOLDS A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE WELL INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS COULD FLIRT WITH 105 DEGREES IF MIXING IS JUST RIGHT.

OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME AND BLOCKING RIDGE PATTERN...DO NOT SEE MUCH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT. WILL KEEP INHERITED FORECAST AS IS WITH VERY MINOR CHANGES
MADE TO DIURNAL DEWPOINT VARIATIONS AND TO INCREASE DAYTIME TEMPS
A DEGREE OR SO WITH STRONG RIDGING.

UPPER RIDGE COULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY DAY 7...BUT GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF VARIABLES THAT COULD INFLUENCE A DAY 7
FORECAST...DECIDED TO STAY WITH ZERO POPS AND HOT TEMPS THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

KW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  94  63  97 /  20   0   0   0
TULIA         64  93  65  97 /  30  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     69  95  68  98 /  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     67  99  67 102 /  20   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       71  98  69 100 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    69 101  69 102 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     68  96  71  98 /  30  10   0   0
SPUR          70  97  71 100 /  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     74  98  72 103 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

21/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

TXZ021>044-171630-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
1130 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM TULIA TO DENVER CITY. THERE IS
AN ADDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TURKEY TO PADUCAH.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TODAY. DESPITE WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. LATER TONIGHT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM KANSAS THROUGH THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THIS LINE MAY
IMPACT THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.