Flash Flood and Hail in New Mexico, June 16, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
157 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

.SHORT TERM...
MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM NRN MEXICO THRU CENTRAL NM
MTN CHAIN. CONVECTION IS SLOW TO DEVELOP IN MTNS WHILE TENDING TO
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E AWAY FROM HEAT SOURCE. HIGH BASED
-SHRA/-TSRA ACRS WRN AREAS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES - DUNKEN RAWS 94/39. FARTHER E ACRS THE PLAINS OF
SE NM/PB LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MINIMAL AT BEST AND MSAS ACTUALLY
DEPICTS LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE. AS OF 19Z MODIFIED 12Z KMAF SOUNDING
REFLECTS -70 J/KG BTWN 75H-65H THAT WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. AS
TEMPS RISE DWPNTS ARE SLOWLY FALLING (ETA SFC MSTR TOO HIGH) THUS
EXPECT CAP WON/T BREAK ACRS PB. STEERING FLOW FAVORS CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP TO MOVE EAST INTO ADJACENT PLAINS AND THUS HAVE
INCLUDED 10-20 PCT POPS THIS EVENING W OF KMAF. LOW TEMPS TRENDING
UP WITH L70S EXPECTED ACRS PB.

.LONG TERM...
MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS WEEKEND IS HOW HOT IT WILL GET.  MID/UPPER
RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WILL ONLY INTENSIFY AND SLOWLY
MEANDER AROUND THE SOUTHWEST U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO WARM IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS.  WE
WILL APPROACH THE RECORD HIGHS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AT MIDLAND
WHICH ARE 106/107/107 RESPECTIVELY...BUT DO NOT THINK WE WILL SET
ANY NEW RECORDS.  FRIDAY WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE...BUT IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD MORE LIKELY TIE THE 106 THAN ACTUALLY GET
HOTTER.  THIS IS ALL ASSUMING FULL SUN AS WELL...SO A DEGREE MAY BE
TAKEN OFF EXPECTED HIGHS FOR POSSIBLE SCATTERED CU ANYWAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND...SFC TEMPERATURES WILL STAY VERY HOT OVER THE
AREA.  AT THE SAME TIME...700MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO GREATER THAN 17
DEGREES CELSIUS...WHICH PRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT CAP FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO OVERCOME.  HOWEVER...TODAY WE HAVE SEEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
LIKELY WITH DRY LIGHTNING...NEAR DUNKEN NEW MEXICO.  SO AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THE ADDITIONAL POSSIBILITY OF DRY LIGHTNING...MAINLY
IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...AS DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S OVER THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA.

HAVE ADJUSTED WEATHER...POP...DEWPOINT...AND SKY GRIDS SLIGHTLY...
BUT OTHERWISE HAVE MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS THE
EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              72 104  75 103 /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                66 107  70 107 /  20  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  71 103  73 101 /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           73 107  75 104 /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          68 101  72 101 /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   65 106  71 105 /  20  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   60  97  60  96 /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72 105  75 104 /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  72 106  75 104 /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    74 112  73 110 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

49/20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
208 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-171908-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
208 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 (108 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2005)

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS. AS HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE
EAST THEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS MANY AREAS OF WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING 110 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND THE UPPER
TRANS PECOS REGIONS OF WEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

IF POSSIBLE...SPEND TIME INDOORS IN AIR CONDITIONED FACILITIES.  IF
YOU PLAN TO BE OUTSIDE...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE OR STRENUOUS
PHYSICAL ACTIVITY.  DRINK PLENTY OF WATER OR OTHER NON ALCOHOLIC OR
NON CAFFEINATED BEVERAGES.  WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT...LIGHT COLORED...AND
LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING.  WEAR A HAT TO SHIELD YOURSELF FROM THE
SUN...AND USE A SUN SCREEN TO REDUCE CHANCES OF SUNBURN.  LASTLY...
ENSURE YOUR OUTDOOR PETS HAVE AMPLE WATER AND SHADE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
348 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

NMZ028-162145-
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS NM-
248 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF SEVEN RIVERS
AT 248 PM MDT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.