Several waves of thunderstorms moved through northern Lower Michigan in the overnight hours. Most were not severe, though the storms did bring heavy rain and considerable lightning.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
Several waves of thunderstorms moved through northern Lower Michigan in the overnight hours. Most were not severe, though the storms did bring heavy rain and considerable lightning.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 25, 9:28 PM EST, 3 hours 17 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1028 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 .UPDATE...FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING OUT IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PUMPING LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHICH IS ALIGNED FROM SRN WISCONSIN...SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE DTX AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH 3HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN AN INCH IN AREAS. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN SRN WISCONSIN...AND LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION WOULD BRING THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF NRN LOWER MI...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THEMSELVES WERE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MOIST INFLOW OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO POINT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN-MOST CWA OVERNIGHT SUGGESTING GREATEST THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL RESIDE THERE. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM COOL OUTFLOW MAY KEEP WARM FRONT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS INDICATE. WE ALREADY HAVE MARGINAL (AT BEST) ELEVATED INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT (DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED LARGE HAIL) WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR REGION. LIKE THIS IDEA AND HAVE THUS LOWERED THUNDER CHANCES IN EASTERN UPPER AND PORTIONS OF NRN LOWER...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE FORECAST FOR ALL OF NRN LOWER...AS THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN...AND WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY EXCEED AN INCH IN MANY LOCATIONS OF NRN LOWER OVERNIGHT. THIS RAIN...COMBINED WITH THE HEAVY RAINS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...HAS RESULTED IN KEEPING THE FLOOD WATCH GOING. TEMPS WILL NOT FLUCTUATE MUCH OVERNIGHT AND HAVE TWEAKED/STEADIED THEM OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO...CLOUDY (100%) SKY COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. SMD && .PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 DISCUSSION...UNDER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...DRY AIR (DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S-50S) WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NE NEBRASKA/ SE SOUTH DAKOTA...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY ARCED NE THROUGH THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...THEN SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN LAKES. LIGHTNING DATA/UPSTREAM RADARS DEPICTED CONVECTION EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE ENE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...PULLING A WARM FRONT E/NE...AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AT LEAST LIKELY POPS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI). SHORT TERM FORECAST ATTENTION FOCUSES ON SEVERE POTENTIAL AND ON POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN DRY AIRMASS INITIALLY IN PLACE...ADJUSTED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FORECASTS (20-01Z) TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. THEN...BECAUSE PRECIPITATION COULD BREAK OUT QUICKLY IN INTENSIFYING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN UPSTREAM...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS IN THE 1Z-5Z TIME FRAME ACROSS S/W COUNTIES. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM TRENDS AND 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THIS EVENT WILL GET UNDERWAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SYNOPTIC ASCENT ENHANCED BY COMBINATION OF 300-315K ISENTROPIC ASCENT...700-500 MB QG FORCING AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A 100-130 KT 300-200 MB JET MAX PASSING NORTH OF THE LAKES IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE INTENSE FOR LATE JULY AND SHOULD AT LEAST ENSURE VIRTUALLY ALL AREAS WILL RECEIVE RAIN. MEANWHILE...PARAMETERS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AS DEEP LAYER FORCING/CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FEATURING IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50 KNOTS ACROSS SURFACE BOUNDARY...PUSHING 13-16C DEWPOINTS/PLUME OF THETA-E 342-346K INTO REGION...WHILE 700 MB DEWPOINTS AVERAGE 6-8C...AND PWATS INCREASE TO 2 TO 2.25 INCHES...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL CONNECTION TO TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS DEPICTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) AND SOME DEGREE OF 850-300 MB THICKNESS DIFLUENCE. THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR HEAVY RAIN...OUTFLOW/MESOSCALE FORCING PRODUCED BY ONGOING ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY HOLD THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/4 OF THE FORECAST AREA (SIMILAR TO THE 12Z NAM)...WHILE DYNAMIC FORCING MAY PULL CONVECTION/HEAVIER RAINFALL FARTHER NORTH (PER THE 12Z GFS). THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS. BECAUSE OF THE UNUSUAL COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC FORCING...DEEP MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...FEEL THIS EVENT POSES AN ABNORMAL FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THUS...TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING UNCERTAINTY ABOUT DETAILS OF PRECIP...DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN LOWER MI FOR OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ALSO A CONCERN DURING THIS EVENT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED (12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE 850 MB CAPES ABOUT 1000 J/KG)...BUT STRONG SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED ROTATION POTENTIAL ENHANCED BY 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS...UNDER BAND OF 40-50 KNOT 700-500 MB WINDS...MAY ENHANCE UPDRAFTS TO PRODUCE AN OCCASIONAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ALSO...IF THE SURFACE LOW PULLS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO S/SE COUNTIES...NOT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED...AND LOCALLY ENHANCED HELICITY (0-3 KM SRH OVER 500 M2/S2) NEAR THE BOUNDARY/SURFACE LOW COULD ENHANCE THE SEVERE THREAT AND COULD EVEN PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ROWLEY OUR LARGE SCALE ZONAL FLOW REGIME OF THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS WILL BE REPLACED FOR A TIME IN THE EXTENDED BY SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLITUDE...AS A TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL ALSO BRING SEVERAL PUSHES OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR. TUESDAY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE EARLY TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS TRACKS INTO ONTARIO. NAM MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH SURFACE LOW AT 12Z /JUST SOUTH OF THE STRAITS/...AS BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BE SLOWER TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT THAN THE NAM FORECASTS. THIS SLOWER NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT WOULD LIKELY KEEP SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH MID MORNING LIKELY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER...FOCUSED IN AREA OF MORE FAVORABLE H7-H5 FRONTOGENESIS AND H3-H2 DIVERGENCE FIELDS. BY 18Z...SURFACE LOW HAS TRACKED EAST OF THE AREA AND VIGOROUS CAA REGIME IS USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA /ARENAC-GLADWIN/ THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT HANGING ON ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF MICHIGAN. CLOUDS LIKELY TO HANG AROUND WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH H8-H7 MOISTURE REMAINING GREATER THAN 80% THROUGH 21Z. WE MAY START TO SEE SLOW CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. ON THE MARINE FRONT...LIKELY SCA CRITERIA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN CAA REGIME BEHIND SURFACE LOW. AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADIENT SHOULD GRADUALLY RELAX...ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE HURON LOCATIONS /ESPECIALLY STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT/ MAY REMAIN NEAR SCA CRITERIA DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER KINK IN THE UPPER FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH NO GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LOW RH/S IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS...MID LEVEL OMEGA AND DIV-Q FIELDS ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND MAY BE ENOUGH GENERATE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS. BECAUSE OF THIS...I WILL BRING 30% POPS ACROSS NORTHERN 1/2 OF CWA FOR THURSDAY. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THURSDAY EVENING...BRINGING AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHWRS/STORMS TO NORTHERN LOWER DURING THE EVENING. THERMAL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST FRI-SUN...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE INTO WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HUMIDITY WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO EFFECTIVELY BLOCK DEEPER MOISTURE FROM WORKING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES GRADUALLY ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CWA SITS ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND DEEPER MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF NEXT COOL FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. JK && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH...OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...MIZ016>036-041-042. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1055 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 MIZ008-015>036-041-042-LSZ321-322-LMZ323-341-342-344-345- LHZ345>349-261000- ALCONA-ALPENA-ANTRIM-ARENAC-BENZIE-CHARLEVOIX-CHEBOYGAN-CHIPPEWA- CRAWFORD-EMMET-GLADWIN-GRAND TRAVERSE-IOSCO-KALKASKA-LEELANAU- MACKINAC-MANISTEE-MISSAUKEE-MONTMORENCY-OGEMAW-OSCODA-OTSEGO- PRESQUE ISLE-ROSCOMMON-WEXFORD...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON...AND LAKE SUPERIOR 1055 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF M-32 IN NORTHERN LOWER. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEE THE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ALSO...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE SOUTH OF M-32...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THURSDAY...AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD (ALL LOWER CASE) JPB/SPR/SMD
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 64 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:31 UTC.
1 lightning, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Lightning struck a radio tower, damaging equipment in a nearby building.
Three large trees were blown down.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2005Every state in 2005This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2005
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5466230, 5466229.