Damaging Winds and Lightning Strike in New York, July 26, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1005 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

.UPDATE...

HAVE UPPED THE POPS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS A FAST
MOVING CLUSTER OF TSRA MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
MCS IS WEAKENING SOME BUT WILL STILL MAINTAIN CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER STORMS STILL EXPECTED
EARLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

HIBBERT

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ONE MORE DAY OF EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN STORE BEFORE THE LONG
PROMISED PATTERN CHANGE DELIVERS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY PLEASANT
SUMMER WX. VERY INTERESTING 24 HOURS IN STORE AS WE TRANSITION.

REGION IS VERY QUIET AND STABLE EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE...BUT NOT FOR LONG. WE HAVE SEVERAL CONCERNS TODAY. FIRST
IS THE WARM FRONT OVER ERN MICH ATTM WHICH SHOULD LIFT ACROSS SRN
ONTARIO AND WRN NY THIS MORNING/MIDDAY. MODELS FAIRLY LOW ON ANY
POPS FOR THIS FEATURE BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ACTIVITY OVER
SRN MICH AND ITS APPROACH. WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FOR ABOUT THE
NORTHERN HALF OF WESTERN NY IN THE 14-18Z TIME FRAME. THEN...WE GET
INTO WARM SECTOR AS NOSE OF 22C 850 TEMPS SURGE UP INTO OUR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF LIMITED SUNSHINE AND
WITH GOOD MIXING...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY REACH L90S MOST SPOTS...A FEW
DEG COOLER NEAR BUF IN OFF LAKE FLOW.

COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES IN PRIME TIME...AND WITH 50KT LL JET
ACROSS AREA AT 00Z...WOULD INITIALLY EXPECT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX
OUTBREAK. HOWEVER...FRONT IS SLOWING...AND GFS IN FACT RIPPLES A LOW
ALONG LAKE ERIE AND DOES NOT ALLOW FRONT TO CROSS BUF TILL 06Z. PAST
EXPERIENCE WOULD SUPPORT A SLOWER FRONTAL CROSSING...ESPECIALLY AS
IT BUCKS A STRONG CHANNELLED WIND DOWN THE LENGTH OF LK ERIE.

IN ANY CASE...WITH SUCH A STRONG WIND FIELD JUST OFF THE DECK AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA...WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH AT ALL TO MIX
DAMAGING WINDS DOWN...SO AM QUITE CONCERNED OVER SEVERE WX...SO
WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLITE THE THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BEST CHC WILL AT LEAST INITIALLY BE LAKE BOUNDARIES S AND E
OF BUF INTO GEN VALLEY AS BUF AREA MAY BE SHADOWED...BUT THIS WILL
BE LESS OF A FACTOR AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING SO WILL BROADBRUSH
ALL FOR NOW.

OTHER CONCERNS TODAY ARE TEMPS AND WINDS. AS NOTED ABOVE...WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR L-M 90S WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUN...BUT THAT IS THE
PROBLEM...EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUD FROM WARMFRONT MUCH OF
DAY...SO WILL DROP TEMPS BACK A FEW...BUT STILL CLOSE TO MET
READINGS. RECORDS OF 92 (1960) AT BUF AND 95 (1930) AT ROC WILL BE
TOUGH TO REACH BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE. AS FOR WINDS...MUCH OF DAY WILL
MAINTAIN INVERSION OF SORTS..ONLY AFTER 18Z WILL THEY MIX FULLY
DOWN...AND COULD GO 25-30 OR SO OVER WEST LATE...JUST BELOW ADVIS
CRITERIA...WILL COVER GUSTY WINDS IN SPS ANYWAY. WITH SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FROPA...WILL HOLD POPS AT CHC THROUGH 22Z...THEN LIKELY
AREAWIDE TONIGHT.

FRONT SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST WED...BUT SLOWLY...AND WITH NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW OF COOL ADVECTION...CLEARING WILL BE VERY SLOW IF AT
ALL. WAVE RIPPLES OFF ACROSS PA IN MORNING...WILL CHC POPS
EVERYWHERE BUT LOWER FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY AND MENTION SOME
CLEARING LATE IN DAY NORTH. WED WILL BE FIRST COOL DAY (BELOW 80)
IN 3 WEEKS CLEARING WED NT THEN A FINE DAY THURS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE...SUNSHINE AND 850 TEMPS 12-14C SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND TO A NORMAL 80 OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE LONG AWAITED PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER IS LOOKING LESS
IMPRESSIVE WITH LESS STAYING POWER AS H5 HGTS WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE PERIOD.

H5 RIDGES OVER GREENLAND AND BRITISH COLUMBIA HAS ALLOWED A
PERSISTENT VORTEX TO REMAIN EAST OF HUDSON BAY. THIS VORTEX WILL SAG
SOUTH A BIT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK...BUT THEN THE
GREENLAND BLOCK IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE EASTERN CANADA VORTEX
ROTATES TO THE EAST. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW H5 HGTS TO REBOUND OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

IN SUMMARY...THE EXTENDED (FRI-MON) PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABV NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM MICHIGAN. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRANSLATE SOME
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC THOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHWEST
SFC WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 KTS DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ERIE.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
BUF/IAG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS FOUND OVER ROC.

THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. SCATTERED IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN THUS BE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. THE SECOND HALF OF THEN NIGHT WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS
CONVECTION...BUT LOW CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS.

THE GUSTY SYNOPTIC WINDS TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH WITH THE ONSET OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.CLIMO...

OUR AMAZING SUMMER CONTINUES. ROC REACHED 91 MON...ITS 9TH OF
SEASON...ALREADY MATCHING THEIR NORMAL FOR AN ENTIRE YEAR. BUFS
MIN OF 73 WAS 17TH DAY WITH MIN IN 70S...MATCHING 2002 AS MOST EVER
IN AN ENTIRE YEAR IN AIRPORT RECORDS (62 YRS)...AND WE STILL HAVE
ALL OF AUGUST TO GO LAST DAY COOLER THAN NORMAL AT BUF WAS JULY 2

&&

.HYDRO...

MUCH OF WRN NY VERY DRY...ESPECIALLY NIAGARA FRONTIER. RIVER/CREEK
LEVELS LOW...TONIGHT IS ONLY REAL SHOT AT RAIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR
SO...AND OVERALL QPF LOOKS TO BE 0.5 INCH OR LESS MOST SPOTS.

&&

.BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...NONE. (SPS FOR SEVERE WX THREAT)
.MARINE...SCA BUF HRBR.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/CLIMO/HYDRO...MCLAUGHLIN
LONG TERM/MARINE/AVIATION...RSH

NWS ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
445 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-270844-
ALLEGANY-CATTARAUGUS-CHAUTAUQUA-GENESEE-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
MONROE-NIAGARA-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-ONTARIO-ORLEANS-OSWEGO-
SOUTHERN ERIE-WAYNE-WYOMING-
445 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SFM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-262100-
ALLEGANY-CATTARAUGUS-CHAUTAUQUA-GENESEE-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
MONROE-NIAGARA-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-ONTARIO-ORLEANS-OSWEGO-
SOUTHERN ERIE-WAYNE-WYOMING-
1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

ANOTHER SURGE OF HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS. A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE EAST AND CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY EARLY EVENING.

A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.

YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL WEATHER SITUATION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO...OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO...OR YOUR
FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST DETAILS.

HIBBERT/MCLAUGHLIN