Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, July 26, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
308 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005

.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER OCCURRING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. BULK OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...HOWEVER STILL
EXPECTING GOOD COVERAGE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD. ANY HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS WILL BE
HIGHLY ISOLATED AS STRENGTH OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED BY
MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT LACK OF INSTABILITY...WITH THIS
SAME REASONING LIMITING THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. CURRENT
READINGS ACROSS KANSAS SUPPORT LOWS WELL INTO THE 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

BULK OF PRECIP WILL END DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AS
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVE INTO THE
AREA. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...FOR MOST OF THE DAY LEAVING A
STRUGGLE FOR TEMPS TO BREAK THE 80 DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WITH CLEARING
SKIES...FORECAST LOWS WILL APPROACH OR BREAK RECORD VALUES AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

ABNORMALLY COLD START TO THURSDAY AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR A REFRESHING JULY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS IN PLACE...AND CONTINUED LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

MODERATING TEMPS BEGIN FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH
SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER STUBBORN. RESULTANT LACK
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW NORMAL...WHILE HIGH TEMPS WILL PUSH TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS. FORECAST REMAINS DRY FROM LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  81  58  88 /  90  20  10   0
FSM   69  78  63  87 /  70  60  10  10
MLC   66  79  60  86 /  80  40  10  10
BVO   62  80  55  86 /  90  10  10   0
FYV   63  76  55  83 /  80  60  10   0
BYV   62  73  60  81 /  80  60  10  10
MKO   66  79  59  87 /  90  40  10   0
MIO   62  79  57  85 /  90  20  10   0
F10   64  79  59  85 /  90  40  10   0
HHW   71  79  64  88 /  60  50  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 18
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
111 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-270615-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
111 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON
REACHING THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 7 PM. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AND WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE WIND
PROFILES ALOFT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WIND GUSTS TO 60 MILES
AN HOUR AND HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WITH THE STORMS.

WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO
TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS EARLY TONIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A FEW PLACES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN NROTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AND
COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
415 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005

OKZ058-262200-
OTTAWA OK-
415 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OTTAWA

AT 415 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
WEST OF OTTAWA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...COMMERCE...WYANDOTTE...OTTAWA...
PEORIA AND QUAPAW.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005

OKZ058-262300-
OTTAWA OK-
500 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OTTAWA

AT 500 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
OTTAWA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MIAMI...COMMERCE...FAIRLAND...
WYANDOTTE...OTTAWA...PEORIA...QUAPAW...CARDIN AND PICHER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.