Winter Storm in Vermont, April 4 to 5, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1100 AM EST FRI APR 4 2003

.DISC...HV ISSUED AN UPDATE TO SCALE BACK ON THE FRZG RN FOR THE
EARLY AFTN ACRS THE CPTL RGN AND POINTS S/E. BND OF PCPN ACRS THE
NRN ZNS HAS DIMINISHED AND PCPN WL LIGHTEN UP FOR AWHILE. NXT BATCH
OF PCPN ASSOC WITH NXT S/WV MOVG ACRS LE AND IS PROGGED TO MOV INTO
CNTRL AND ERN NY BY LT AFTN. TEMPS WL BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY ACRS THE
ZNS...SM UP A FEW DEGS AND A FEW DWN. MAIN CONCERN WL BE LT THIS
EVENING AND TNGT AS QPF AMNTS OF .25 TO.5 MOV ACRS THE RGN WITH
TEMPS BLO FRZG AND MID LVLS WRMG UP. WSW ARE UP AND WL REMAIN SO AS
ANTHR BTCH OF FRZG PCPN LKS LKLY OVRNGT. WL LV FLD WATCH UP FOR NOW
ACRS PTNS OF CWA BUT WL REVISIT LATER ON WITH NEW DATA.

....PRVS DISC...

.DISC...BASED ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RECEIVED EARLY THIS MORNING WL UP
SNOW AMTS IN THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION/ S VT. BAND OF HVY SN
HAS SHRUNK SOME AND EDGED NORTH.  BUT...A LOT OF UPSTREAM
PRECIPITATION ON RADAR.  SOUTH OF MAIN BAND LTL SHOWG ON RADAR TO S
BUT A LOT OF LGT RA AND DRZL NOTED.  ALSO WILL FINE TUNE SOME
TEMPERATURES.

AN EXTENDED WINTERY MESS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND UNDERWAY.

COLD AIR SEEPED SOUTH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPS
TO OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF CWA.  COLD AIR CONTINUED TO
DEEPEN THURSDAY EVENING AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED
THROUGH MUCH OF AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  INITIAL LOW PRESSURE
WAVES HAVE BROUGHT MODERATE PRECIP BAND FROM EXTRM SW ADIRONDACKS TO
SOUTHERN VERMONT.  SECOND STRONGER WAVE TO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
WHILE EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL A QUESTION IT IS NOW CLEAR
FREEZING/FROZEN WILL DOMINATE EXCEPT IN EXTREME SOUTH.  INTERESTING
NOTE FWC/NGM TEMPERATURES SUPERIOR ON  TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. ETA/MET AS WOULD BE EXPECTED TOO WARM.

SNOW LINE AT MIDNIGHT WAS A LITTLE SOUTH OF A WATERTOWN...GLENS
FALLS...KEENE LINE.  T-3 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED THEN IN
NORTHERNMOST SARATOGA SOUTHERN WARREN COUNTY.  6 INCHES AT 1900 FEET
IN BENNINGTON COUNTY.  +SN AT KGFL SUGGESTS EVEN GREATER TOTALS.
ETA HOURLY SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW LINE WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH TODAY
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.  AT GLENS FALLS THEY SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW
WITH SOME SLEET TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH SLEET AND THEN FREEZING
RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  AT KALB ETA SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A LONG
PERIODS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.  EVEN SOME MIX AT KPOU.  GFS
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT TRENDS OF ETA.

FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL PLACE SNOW EMPHASIS A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH TODAY.  PRECIPITATION IN FAR S LIKELY TO QUITE FAIRLY SPOTTY.
ETA AT KALB RATHER LIGHT DURING DAY TODAY.  TONIGHT SNOW LINE
RETREATS QUICKLY NORTH WITH EMPHASIS ON PL/FZRA. SATURDAY MORNING A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO LIQUID EXCEPT POSSIBLY FAR N.

HEADLINES...FIRST FLOOD WATCH.  RAINFALL IN SOUTH WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR MOHAWK MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FREEZING OR FROZEN.  WOULD BE INCLINED TO NOT ISSUE A WATCH IF NONE
WERE OUT BUT GIVEN ITS OUT WILL PUSH BACK VALID TIME UNTIL
SATURDAY.  LITTLE FALLS (MOHAWK) AND GAYLORDSVILLE (HOUSATONIC)
WOULD GO OVER WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN.

WILL EXTEND WINTER STORMS WARNINGS FURTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES.
ALREADY 1/4+ INCH  ICE ACCRETION.  ETA SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION MAY BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY...BUT MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD OF MAIN
PRECIPITATION BAND WOULD PRODUCE HEAVIER PRECIP TODAY.  HEAVIER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST IN NORTH PORTION OF WARNING.

IMPACT OF SLEET/FZRA DIFFICULT TO PEG.  WHERE MORE SLEET/SNOW FALLS
RISK OF POWER OUTAGES LESS.  BERKSHIRE COUNTY A SPECIAL PROBLEM.
WILL GO WITH WARNING BUT EMPHASIZE NORTHERN PORTIONS.  TEMPS STILL
MILD IN SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE BUT AQW AT 1C WITH RA....GREAT BARRINGTON
37.  TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH DAY. QPF IN SOUTHERN HALF
OF COUNTY MIGHT BE LESS ALSO.

EXTENDED...ANOTHER MESSY STORM FOR MON.  00Z GFS FASTER THAN 12Z RUN
WITH PRECIPITATION ONSET MONDAY MORNING.  THICKNESSES SUPPORT SNOW
AT THE START AT LEAST...AND PROBABLY MUCH OF THE EVENT N.  MIX OR
TURN TO RAIN INDICATED SOUTH.  WITH SECONDARY LOW CUTTING TO OUR
SOUTH ANOTHER WINTERY EVENT LIKELY.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
TUESDAY IN FAR NORTH EARLY BUT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMING TREND SETS AND AND WARM ADVECTION

.HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...FFA CUT BACK TO SAT.  QPF LIGHT IN S THRU
EVE.  MOHAWK BASIN MAINLY FROZEN THRU TONIGHT.

.ALY...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH SAT AM...
       NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-MAZ001-VTZ013-14.
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH SAT AM NY058>061-
       FLOOD WATCH SAT FOR NYZ038-39-063>066-CTZ001.

CTZ001-MAZ001-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-VTZ013-014-
051100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EST FRI APR 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
WINTER STORM WARNING NORTHERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
WINTER WEATHER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING GREENE AND
COLUMBIA COUNTIES.
FLOOD WATCH SATURDAY...MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN HERKIMER...ULSTER
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THOUGH SEVEN...
STORM WINDS DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER STORM WITH SNOW OR MIX ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
REPORTS OF SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

NEW YORK STATEWIDE POLICE INFORMATION NETWORK
TROOP E
0817AM     FRI APR 04 2003
#1 0000001 000
EHQT WLSR QHQT QTRF WAPT ESAP  EPAP
01882    FILE 28   SP CANANDAIGUA  NY1340100                 APR 04-03
TO       NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
         ATTENTION SEMO DUTY OFFICER

                             ICE STORM

DETAILS CONCERNING EVENT: ICE STORM - MONROE AND WAYNE COUNTIES -
TREES AND WIRES DOWN - (2) ROADS CLOSED WITHIN THE TOWN OF PARMA
MONROE CO - STATE OF EMERGENCY TOWN OF SODUS WAYNE CO - 15,000
HOMES WITHOUT ELECTRIC IN MONROE CO

COUNTY(S) AFFECTED: MONROE AND WAYNE

DATE AND TIME CONDITION STARTED: 9-00 PM 4/3/03
DATE AND TIME CONDITION ENDED:
EXTENT OF DAMAGE OR AREAS IN DANGER: MONROE CO - SEVERAL TRAFFIC
SIGNALS NOT WORKING DUE TO POWER OUTAGE - POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS
AND SCHOOL CLOSINGS

NUMBER KILLED: 0        NUMBER INJURED: 0
REMARKS:

AUTH PHONE #: 585 398-4100

AUTH - MAJOR MARK T FISCHER
       TROOP E COMMANDER

OPER - HUGHSON, HOWARD L              0816

NEW YORK STATEWIDE POLICE INFORMATION NETWORK
TROOP E
0826AM     FRI APR 04 2003
#1 0000001 000
EHQT WLSR QHQT QTRF WAPT APTS
01883    FILE 28   SP CANANDAIGUA  NY1340100                 APR 04-03
TO       NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
         ATTENTION SEMO DUTY OFFICER

                   ICE STORM

WEATHER CURRENT/FORECASTED: CURRENT - ICEY ROADS - POWER LINES DOWN - POWER
OUTAGE  NORTH END CAYUGA CTY - T/CATO - CONQUEST - STERLING - VICTORY -
V/FAIRHAVEN ROCHESTER GAS & ELETRIC NOTIFIED - NO ROAD CLOSINGS AT THIS TIME

AUTH - CAPT DONALD SWAIN

OPER - HUGHSON, HOWARD L              0825