Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, April 4 to 5, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
300 PM EST FRI APR 4 2003

STG CDFNT-STNRY FNT-WRMFNT (DEPENDING ON THE HOUR) ACRS CWA MAKING
FOR A VERY CHALLENGING FCST FOR THE REGION.  FOR THIS EVG WL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE ERIE AREA.  THIS IS
LARGELY CONFINED TO THE SHORELINE AS TEMPS AWAY FROM THE COAST MOVE
INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.  THRU THE EVG AND EARLY TONIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD BGN TO SLOWLY RISE AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
OVERNIGHT.  BY 12Z AVN HAS THE LOW JUST WEST OF ERIE PA.  SFC BNDRY
IS EXTENDS E/W NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE CWA.  THE
APCHG LOW WL EVENTUALLY BRING THIS BNDRY NORTH BUT XPC WL HANG ON
THE SHORELINE.  WILL GO WITH CAP POPS OVRNIGHT AND WL MNTN POSSIBLE
MIX WITH ZR AT THE NW/NE CORNERS. ALSO WITH THE INSTBY ALF OVRRNG
FRONT TSTM THREAT ACRS ALL OF AREA TNGT AS WELL.   SOME OF THESE
COULD CONTAIN HAIL.  TEMPS OBVIOUSLY WL RANGE GREATLY N TO S ACRS
THE AREA AND IN SOME CASES ACROSS A SINGLE COUNTY.  HAVE ATTEMPTED
TO PUT THIS TO WORDS IN THE ZONES.  TEMPS STEADY OR RISING
OVRNGT/TWRDS MORNING AND THEN STEADY/FALLING DURG SAT AS COLD ADVN
FILLS IN ACRS ENTIRE AREA BHND CDFNT.  WILL GO WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING EAST HALF OF THE AREA BUT WITH 850 MB TEMPS DUMPING TO
-8 TO -12 BY EVG ANY RAIN SHOWERS WL TURN TO SNOW. HAD THOUGHT THAT
PCPN MIGHT STOP FOR THE AFTN BUT BUFKIT SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AMS
IN THE LOWER 5KFT SO AFTN INSTBY SHWRS COULD CONTINUE.  WILL ALLOW
CLDS TO BREAK SAT NIGHT AND WL CONT WITH PC SUNDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM DUE TO BRING PCPN INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS ALSO COULD BE QUITE TRICKY  ETA SHOWS 850MB TEMPS -2 TO -4 AND
WITH SFC FCST BELOW FREEZING THIS COULD BE SNOW.  AVN A BIT WARMER
AND THATS ALL IT WOULD TAKE TO MAKE THIS RAIN.  HAVE PROVIDED
LATITUDE IN THE FORECAST.  MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS DROP ENOUGH TO MAKE
ANY REMAINING PCPN SNOW IN THE COLD ADVN BHND THE LOW.

MISCLE IS OUT.

.CLE...
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 6PM. PAZ001.

TK

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-041315-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
612 AM EST FRI APR 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO
AND A PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL OHIO ON SOUTH...SOUTH OF MANSFIELD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BUT A HEAVY SNOWFALL IS NOT
LIKELY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION TODAY OR EARLY
TONIGHT.

OHZ009>013-019>022-027>032-036>038-047-042245-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
447 PM EST FRI APR 4 2003

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. RAINFALL FROM 2 TO 5 TENTHS OF AN INCH IN ONE HOUR.
THE HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS.
THE WINDS CAN GUST BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MILES AN HOUR WITH SOME
OF THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

THOMPSON