Winter Storm in New York, April 4 to 5, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 PM EST THU APR 3 2003

.DISC...HVYST PCPN IN BAND A LITTLE N OF KALB.  SNOW LN HAS WORKED A
LITTLE FURTHER S THAN FCST ERLY.  WL UPDATE ZFP TO ADD SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO A FEW ZNS.  S VT UP TO 6 IN
REPORTED AT 1900 FEET. JUST S OF GFL 1.75 INCHES SNOW.

910 PM AFD....

WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ACRS THE CWA ATTM...MNLY FRZG RN FROM THE
NRN CATSKILLS ACROSS THE CPTL RGN INTO SRN VT WITH RAIN JUST SOUTH
OF THERE. TEMPS ARE HLDG AON FRZG INMOST SPOTS. FIRST SIGN BATCH OF
PCPN MOVG ACRS THE RGN NOW WITH ACCUMULATING ICE ON SM ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THE OFF RAMPS WHERE NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
VERY SLICK OUT THERE ON THE ROADWAYS AND LK FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO
WORSEN OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR DRAINS A BIT FURTHER S AND MAY CAUSE
PROBLEMS THERE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WL UPDATE ZNS TO TAKE OUT MENT OF
RN ACRS THE CPTL RGN AND JUST GO WITH FRZG RN. WL ADJUST TEMPS ACRS
THE SCHOHARIE VLY/NRN CATSKILLS DWN A FEW DEGS. WL LV MENT OF MIXED
PCPN ACRS THE NRN ZNS WITH FRG RN/SLEET OR SNOW HERE AND WL LV
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE. NEXT BATCH OF PCPN
UPSTREAM AS PER BUF RADAR...THIS AREA ASSOC WITH NXT S/WV WL MOV
ACRS THE RGN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WL ADD TO THE ICE ACCRETION IN THE
ZNS. POTENTIAL FOR A MESSY MORNING COMMUTE...WL LK FOR CONDITIONS TO
POSSIBLY IMPROVE LATE MRNG OR MIDDAY AS TEMPS WARM UP AND FRZG PCPN
BECMS RN ACRS THE MHWK VLY E AND S WITH POSSIBLE FRZG/FRZN ACRS NRN
ZNS.

...PREVS DISC....

.DISC...COORDINATION WITH BGM AND BOX. JUST AS IT LOOKED AS IF OUR
WEATHER COULD NOT GET ANY WORSE...IT HAS...AS OUR WHOLE WEATHER
SCENARIO KEEPS TRENDING COLDER AND COLDER. A LARGE UNSEASONABLY COLD
ARCTIC 1042 MB HIGH...OVER HUDSON/S BAY...WHICH HAS PIPED AIR FROM
SIBERIA...HAS ALREADY DROPPED TEMPERATURES BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
AS FAR SOUTH AS ALBANY. WHAT HURTS MORE...ARE TEMPERATURES STILL IN
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF PA HOWEVER...THE COLD HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTING
TO THE GULF OF MAINE...ALONG WITH A INTENSE BAROCLINIC ZONES JUST TO
OUR SOUTH...AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT...PRODUCING
BOUTS OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND RESULTANT UVM...WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE HISTORICALLY LATE ICE STORM ACROSS MUCH OF
THESE PARTS.

WE WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH THIS PACKAGE OUT EARLY THAN USUAL DUE TO THE
MASSIVE CHANGES IN IT. WE WILL HAVE TO GO RIGHT TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING IN THE NORTH WHERE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS (OF BETTER
THAN HALF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED. PERHAPS ENOUGH SLEET AND EVEN SNOW
WILL MIX IN...TO PREVENT A HEAVY BUILDUP OF ICE...BUT RIGHT
NOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING WOULD BE FROM OLD FORGE AND
POINTS NORTH...WHICH MIGHT END UP WITH MORE OF A SNOWSTORM. THE
ICING LOOKS POTENTIALLY THE WORSE IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA...AS WELL
AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT
SURPRISE ME IF SIGNIFICANT ICING WERE TO TAKE PLACE EVEN LOCALLY.
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD ARGUE AGAINST SUCH AN EVENT...BUT REMEMBER OCTOBER
4, 1987 AND HOW WEATHER HISTORY WAS MADE THAT DAY.

ACTUALLY THE SETUP REMINDS ME A LITTLE OF THE 1998 CLASSIC ICE
STORM...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE THAT GREAT DUE TO A LACK
OF A TROPICAL CONNECTION. TIMING WISE...IT LOOKS AS IF A PRETTY SHOT
OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT...DIMINISH TO LIGHT OR
STOP ALTOGETHER ON FRIDAY...THEN ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY ASSOCIATE WITH A
SOMEWHAT DEEPER STORM.

AFTER THAT...DRY BUT COLD MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL GIVE US A BREAK
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM LOOKS TO BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION (IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR EVEN WET SNOW) BACK IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IT MIGHT BE APRIL...BUT THE AIR OVER CANADA LOOKS MORE
BEFITTING FOR EARLY MARCH.

DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE FORECAST...HAVE WORKED DIRECTLY FROM
THE GRIDS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE WITH ONLY A LITTLE TINKERING OF THE
WORKING AND THE MAV NOS.

.HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...WHILE OUR CONCERN HAS SHIFTED TO A MORE
WINTERY MESS...WE STILL HAVE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO DEAL
WITH IT. WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES
WHERE MORE IN THE WAY OF LIQUID RAIN WILL FALL AND STREAMS ARE
RUNNING HIGH. THE HOUSATONIC IS ESPECIALLY HIGH SO HAVE TARGETED
THAT AREA. ALSO...DESPITE MORE IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH UP FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER SINCE IT
WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE PROBLEMS THERE. AS MENTIONED...WE
ARE EXPECTING ANYWHERE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH MUCH OF FREEZING OR FROZEN NORTH OF ALBANY.

.ALY...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NYZ032-033-041>043
       VTZ013-14.
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH
       FRIDAY...NYZ038>040-047>054-058>061.
       FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ038-39-063>066.
       FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ001.

CTZ001-MAZ001-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-VTZ013-014-
032300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 PM EST THU APR 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
NYZ032-033-041>043 AND VTZ013-14.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
NYZ038>040-047>054-058>061.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
NYZ038-39-063>066 AS WELL AS CTZ001.

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT...AND WILL MIX WITH SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTH. SIGNIFICANT
ICING AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA...WHILE SOME LIGHTER ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
MOSTLY RAIN WILL FALL WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

.DAYS TWO THOUGH SEVEN...
A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF ALBANY...WHILE FREEZING RAIN
CHANGES TO RAIN IN ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTH. MORE ICING IS
POSSIBLE...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MORE SNOW AND SLEET
WILL ACCUMULATE. A TOTAL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED OVER THAT REGION...WHILE MORE
ICING WILL TAKE PLACE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO BRING A NUMBER OF SWOLLEN
STREAMS AND RIVERS TO THEIR FLOOD LEVELS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY.

AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS FORESEEN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGEST
CONCERN WOULD BE POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES IN THE WARNING AREA.
PLEASE REPORT ANY ICING OR SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES OR MORE TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.