Tornado and Hail in Ohio, April 4 to 5, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1105 AM EST FRI APR 4 2003

CURRENT SFC/SAT ANALYSIS INDCG WRM FRNT REMAINS DRAPED ACRS FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MRNG.  TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT OF 20+ DEGREES
NOTED BTWN AOH-MNN AND CMH-DAY.  BATCH OF SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA
CURRENTLY TRACKING OUT OF WEST CNTRL OH.

SVRL ISSUES AT HAND FOR THIS UPDATE.  FIRST IS TO CONTEND WITH MAJOR
TEMP DIFFERENCE ALONG FRONT.  BNDRY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR
SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH THRU AFTN.  AREA OF LO LVL DIV SEEMS TO BE
CONTRIBUTING TO SOME CLEARING ACRS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KY
ATTM.  THIS WILL MOVE NE INTO FCST AREA BY ERLY AFTN AND SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPS ALONG AND EAST OF I-71 TO CLIMB INTO L-M70S.  12Z
KILN SOUNDING SUPPORTING THIS...AS IT IS GIVING MAX TEMP OF 70
DEGREES EVEN WITH FULL AC/BKN SC ALL DAY.  WILL MAKE UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS IN ALL ZONES BUT WEST CNTRL OH FOR AFTN TEMPS...RANGING
FROM U60S IN DAY TO M70S IN PMH.  IN WEST CNTRL OH...TEMP IS 42 AT
AOH AND 56 AT WAPAKONETA...A MERE 20 MILES TO SOUTH.  HAVE L60S
GOING IN THIS AREA FOR AFTN AND THOSE TEMPS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING
IN SOUTHERN MERCER AND SHELBY COUNTIES.  WILL BREAK OFF
MERCER...AUGLAIZE AND HARDIN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER TEMPS.

INTENSE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACRS EASTERN ILLINOIS ATTM.  CONVECTION
RIDING ALONG WRM FRNT WITH INSTABILITY AXIS EXTNDG EAST INTO CNTRL
IN.  MORE STABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN ACRS FCST AREA...BUT ANY SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTN.  AM GOING TO LEAVE LKLY
POPS ACRS SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH PCPN ONGOING IN NORTHERN KY BUT
ONCE THIS PULLS EAST...MAY BE RELATIVELY QUIET FOR MUCH OF AFTN
(THRU 21Z).  LEAVING CAT POPS AT DAY/WAPOK WITH DVLPG WORDING FOR
AFTN.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TSTMS ACRS EASTERN ILLINOIS AS IT MOVES
INTO 60+ DEWPT AIR INTO WESTERN KY.  MAIN TSTM CHC STILL LOOKING TO
BE THIS EVNG AS COLD FRNT TRACKS INTO OH VALLEY.

.ILN...NONE.

RYAN

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ034-035-042>046-051>056-
060>065-070>074-077>082-088-041030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
537 AM EST FRI APR 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO. HOWEVER...A POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DOES EXIST IN PORTIONS OF THE MIAMI AND WHITEWATER
VALLEY REGIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ045-046-051>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088-042200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1149 AM EST FRI APR 4 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OHIO...EASTERN INDIANA...AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TODAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN
THE GREATER CINCINNATI TRI STATE AREA OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY...
SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO...ALTHOUGH THE RISK DOES EXIST
FOR THE MIAMI AND WHITEWATER VALLEYS.  THE SLIGHT RISK WILL
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

LISTEN FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...AS WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.

RYAN