Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, April 15, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
153 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

DAYS 1-2...
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON SEVERE WX POTENTIAL AND LOCATION
TONIGHT. SFC ANALYSIS PUTS DRYLINE BETWEEN DDC/GCK AT 18Z.  UPPER
SYSTEM NEAR 4 CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS CONTINUING EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. RESULTANT FALLING PRESSURES OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KS SHOULD KEEP DRYLINE FAIRLY STATIONARY OR MOVE IT
TO THE WEST SOME DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S AROUND P28.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HANDLING UPPER SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE
VERY GOOD LIFT AS LOW COMES EAST WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE OVER EASTERN
HALF OF CWA.  THE SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE FOR TORNADOES
BUT THE STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS SHOW THAT HIGH WIND SEVERE
STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY. THE MORNING GRIDS WERE VERY GOOD WITH
PLACEMENT OF WX/POPS WITH BEST CHANCES FROM ABOUT DDC EAST. THE ONLY
ADJUST WAS TO INCREASE TO 80 POPS FOR SOUTHEAST CWA TONIGHT AND
REMOVED POPS FOR FAR SOUTHWEST AFTER 05Z.

FOR WINDS TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY, WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND
HIGH WIND WATCH

DAYS 3-7...
WITH ANTICIPATED SVRWX THREAT, FOCUS HAS BEEN ON THE SHORT TERM AND
THUS HAVE NOT LOOKED AT MUCH FOR THE EXTENDED.  ONCE THIS FIRST
STORM SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE PLAINS, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH AGAIN, HOWEVER NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUS SYSTEMS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL OUT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THURSDAY THEN
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.  PRESSURE FALLS WILL ONCE AGAIN
COMMENCE OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT
WILL BE TOUGH TO GET WARM SECTOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT IT IS STILL TO EARLY TO DETERMINE THIS
EXACTLY.  SFC LOW SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
ON FRIDAY SO INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD
WARM AT LEAST MY SOUTHEAST ZONES INTO THE LOWER 70S.  THIS WAS THE
ONLY MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE GOING GRIDS.  NO CHANGES MADE TO THE
POP/WX FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 49 67 37 64 / 70 00 00 00
GCK 45 66 35 63 / 30 00 00 00
EHA 44 72 36 67 / 20 00 00 00
LBL 46 71 37 67 / 20 00 00 00
HYS 53 62 35 61 / 70 30 00 00
P28 55 67 40 65 / 80 00 00 00

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090

15/25

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-161050-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
550 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 25 TO 35 MPH BY
LATE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. THE STRONG
WINDS HAVE PROMPTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE GUSTY WINDS
IN COMBINATION WITH WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH THE FIRE
DANGER INDEX INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY.

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL
BE MOVING OUT OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE
SITUATED IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY
DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AFTER 3 PM AND THEN MOVE TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY, A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL
INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 55 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED GENERALLY EAST AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
SCOTT CITY TO GARDEN CITY AND LIBERAL AFTER 3 PM.

GERARD