Damaging Winds in Kansas, April 15 to 16, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE CHANCES OF
SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT, WITH MORE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE DRY LINE IS ORGANIZING
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.  ALTHOUGH ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE BREAKING OUT, A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
EVENING TO PREVENT ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS IN OUR AREA.  ALTHOUGH
SURFACE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW, A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.  THIS WILL SEND THE DRYLINE SURGING INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING.  VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
GET RID OF THE CAP.  SURFACE WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BACK EAST OF THE
DRYLINE TOWARD EVENING.  WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY STRONG, AS 70 TO 80
KNOTS IS PROGGED AT 500 MB AT 02Z.  THEREFORE, EXPECT SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON THE DRYLINE, AND MOVE QUICKLY
NORTH NORTH NORTHEAST AT 45 TO 60 MPH WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
OBVIOUSLY,  A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE DRYLINE WITH
SUCH WIND SHEAR.  THIS AREA WOULD BE MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE.  THEREAFTER, WITH SUCH STRONG LINEAR FORCING, A
SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP, WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.  WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL SWITCH TO VERY STRONG WINDS.
AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS, STRONG WEST TO
NORTH WEST WINDS WILL WRAP AROUND THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WILL SEE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.  ALSO, MAY SEE SOME WIDELY TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WRAP AROUND THE STORM SYSTEM.

COOLER AIR WILL COME INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.  A RATHER SEASONABLE AFTERNOON
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.  HOWEVER MAY SEE SOME
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, AS MOISTURE
RETURNS.

THE NEXT POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE PACIFIC
OCEAN.  ANOTHER STRONG DRYLINE WILL SETUP ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST, AND WINDS
ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY STRONG.  JUST DEPENDS ON HOW DEEP THE
SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE.  POTENTIAL FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER ON
SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS, IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES.
THEREAFTER, DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FCSTID =8/FRANK
ICT   55  70  38  65 /  80  20   0   0
HUT   54  68  36  63 /  80  20   0   0
EWK   55  69  37  64 /  80  20   0   0
EQA   56  70  38  65 /  80  20   0   0
WLD   56  72  40  67 /  80  20   0   0
RSL   53  62  33  61 /  80  30   0   0
GBD   53  63  33  62 /  80  30   0   0
SLN   54  66  35  62 /  80  30   0   0
MPR   55  69  37  64 /  80  20   0   0
CFV   58  72  41  67 /  80  20   0   0
CNU   58  71  40  66 /  80  20   0   0
K88   58  71  39  65 /  80  20   0   0

.ICT...
KS...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
KSZ032>033...KSZ047>053...KSZ067>072...KSZ082>083...KSZ091>096...KSZ0
98>100.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-161200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
655 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CAPABILITY FOR STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

A DRY LINE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IS
PROJECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.  A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.  HOWEVER, THE MODELS SHOW SOME WINDS
SHEAR, SO ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON A SECONDARY NOTE, A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL,
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THRU THE NIGHT. SEE THE NON
PRECIPITATION WEATHER PRODUCT, NPWICT, FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH HAS PROMPTED
THE CONTINUATION OF A WIND ADVISORY.  THERE WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD BE READY FOR ACTIVATION TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

CHANCE/FRANK

KSZ047-050-051-067-068-082-083-091-092-160235-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
917 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

...TORNADO WATCH #123 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR BARTON, RENO,
RICE, MCPHERSON, RENO, KINGMAN, HARPER, SUMNER, SEDGWICK,
AND HARVEY...

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY THIS
EVENING AND ARE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THEREFORE, TORNADO WATCH
#123 HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

COX

KSZ047-050-051-067-068-082-083-091-092-160240-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED TO INCLUDE MARION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
940 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

...TORNADO WATCH #123 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR BARTON, RENO, RICE,
MARION, MCPHERSON, RENO, KINGMAN, HARPER, SUMNER, SEDGWICK, AND
HARVEY...

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY THIS
EVENING AND ARE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THEREFORE, TORNADO WATCH
#123 HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

COX

KSZ047-050>052-067-068-082-083-091-092-160242-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED TO INCLUDE MARION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
942 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

...TORNADO WATCH 123 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR BARTON, RENO,
RICE, MARION, MCPHERSON, RENO, KINGMAN, HARPER, SUMNER, SEDGWICK,
AND HARVEY...

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY THIS
EVENING AND ARE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THEREFORE, TORNADO WATCH
123 HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

COX