Tornadoes and Hail in Texas, April 15, 2003

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
256 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

DAY ONE...
POWERFUL LOW DEVELOPING OVER HIGH PLAINS WITH H700 GRADIENT PROGGED
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 140-150 METERS PER 200 NM THIS EVENING ON EACH
OF THE GFS...ETA...AND RUC MODELS. THIS IS TOP END OF THE HIGH WIND
INDEX WE USE FOR THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND SHOULD SUPPORT SURFACE
WINDS THIS EVENING ON ORDER OF 40-50 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH.
IN ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE 500 MB WINDS ON ORDER OF 90KTS WITH
700 MB WINDS AROUND 65 KTS. LATEST GUADALUPE PASS OBSERVATION OF 63
GUSTING TO 82 KTS (94 MPH) SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST...IN ADDITION TO
THE GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. UNCERTAIN OF THE FIELD CONDITIONS AND
TILLING ACTIVITY...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING A LOT OF BLOWING
DUST ALREADY COMING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...SO
BELIEVE WE ARE LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH WIND
WARNING THIS EVENING...BUT HIGHLIGHT VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO IN
BLOWING DUST AS WELL.

SURFACE DRYLINE APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY TIGHTENING ALONG THE CAPROCK
WITH BEST CONVERGENCE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LUBBOCK. CONVERGENCE
PATTERN SOMEWHAT CONFUSED BOTH BY EARLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL
PASSING THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AS WELL
AS THE HIGH BASED CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM NEW MEXICO ASSOCIATED
WITH THE POWERFUL JET COMING INTO WEST TEXAS AND THE STRONG COOLING
ALOFT. EITHER WAY...SURFACE TRENDS SUPPORT THE DRY LINE BEING MOST
PRONOUNCED EARLY THIS EVENING IN OUR EASTERN ZONES...AND IN
PARTICULAR OUR NORTHEAST ZONES/SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. THIS LINES UP
WELL WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKED BY THE SPC. CURRENT
SHEAR PROFILE AND INSTABILITY MOST SUPPORTIVE OF THE OBVIOUS HIGH
WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE CONVECTIVE ENHANCED WIND GUSTS ON ORDER OF 80-90KTS
EARLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH MAY NOT OCCUR ANYWHERE NEAR A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SYSTEM TO CHURN TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. VEERING WINDS WITH DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS WEDNESDAY BUT CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.   MCQUEEN/05

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP. THE APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
EJECT A SHORTWAVE OVER WEST TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AT THIS POINT. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY...COOLER
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE NEXT
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. BY TUESDAY...
IF THE GFS HANDLES THIS SYSTEM CORRECTLY...WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE
FA.

FCSTID = 09

FRIONA      41 70 41 72 / 00 00 00 00
TULIA       45 74 43 72 / 00 00 00 00
LUBBOCK     47 77 45 76 / 00 00 00 00
BROWNFIELD  47 76 45 78 / 00 00 00 00
CHILDRESS   50 78 47 74 / 30 00 00 00
ASPERMONT   54 79 51 78 / 30 00 00 00

.LUB...HIGH WIND WARNING THIS EVENING
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

WIND ADVISORY THIS EVENING
TXZ025-026-031-032-037-038-043-044.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9PM
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

TXZ021>044-151900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

THIS IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CAPROCK. THIS AREA IS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
SILVERTON TO POST LINE.

THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AROUND MID AFTERNOON. AS THE STORMS MOVE TO
NEAR AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND INTERACT WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

HIGH BASED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES. VERY STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY MAKE IT TO
THE SURFACE UNDER THE HIGH BASED STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS AREA FROM NEW MEXICO WIND. WIND GUSTS GENERATED FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CAPROCK MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON.

NON PRECIPITATION
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE VERY STRONG WINDS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS...SURFACE WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR FURTHER DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH WIND
WARNING/WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT (LBBNPWLBB) ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.

FIRE WEATHER
HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
SOUTH PLAINS TODAY WITH THE EXPECTED STRONG WINDS AND AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DECREASING TO AROUND 10 PERCENT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR FIRES WILL BE EXTREME. FOR FURTHER DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE
RED FLAG WARNING (LBBRFWLBB) ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

SECURE ANY LOOSE ITEMS...SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS...THAT
COULD BECOME FLYING DEBRIS. DRIVERS OF VANS...TRUCKS...CAMPERS
...TRAILERS AND OTHER HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE
DANGER OF THESE WINDS.

TXZ024>026-030>032-036>038-042>044-160400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
503 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 120 UNTIL 1100
PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 12 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHWEST TEXAS:

COTTLE                CROSBY                DICKENS
FLOYD                 GARZA                 KENT
KING                  MOTLEY                STONEWALL

IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS:

BRISCOE               CHILDRESS             HALL

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CHILDRESS...CROSBYTON...DICKENS...
FLOYDADA...GUTHRIE...JAYTON...MATADOR...MEMPHIS...PADUCAH...POST...
QUITAQUE AND SILVERTON.