Damaging Winds in South Carolina, June 6, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
245 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2002

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS IMPRESSIVE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN AREAS OF THE TN VALLEY.  MOISTURE AND PW LEVELS ARE DOWN
SOMEWHAT FROM YESTERDAY AND THIS CAN BE SEEN ON THE LOOP AS DRIER
AIR OVER SOUTHERN AL AND GA MOVES EAST TOWARD THE AREA.  MOISTURE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL ADVECT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROF TONIGHT...INCREASING PW VALUES TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY LATE TONIGHT.

THE ETA IS FORECASTING THE CENTER OF THE UPPER TROF TO PUSH EAST
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES.  THE WATER VAPOR LOOP HOWEVER DOES
SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRYING DOWN THROUGH ARKANSAS...MAKING ME THINK THAT
THE CHANCES OF TS DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT STILL
EXISTS WITH LIFT APPROACHING THE AREA BY EVENING.  CURRENT
CLOUDCOVER TO THE WEST MIGHT LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT SOME
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ACTIVITY STILL POSSIBLE.  BEST CHANCES WILL
OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS 850-500 MB TROF MOVES THROUGH WITH
IMPRESSIVE DIFLUENCE FIELDS ALOFT.  THE CWA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
JET LOCATION AND THE ETA SHOWS PLENTY OF OMEGA.  A WEAK SFC TROF
WILL ALSO BE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE STATE WHICH WILL GIVE ADDED
LIFT.  BEST INSTABILITY NUMBERS ARE TO THE NORTH OVER VA AND
NC...BUT SPC CONTINUES TO CARRY US IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SVR
WX.  DEPENDING ON WHAT THE RADAR LOOKS LIKE AT TIME OF ZONE
ISSUANCE...MAY ELECT TO INPUT WORDING OF SVR INTO THE ZONES.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS OVER THE ARE ON FRIDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCE
FOR TS IN THE FORECAST...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SURGES SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES BY LATE FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR
A DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEEKEND.  NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT
AND SUN.

EXTENDED...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH TUE...BEFORE ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SH/TS FOR WED AND
THURSDAY.

MARINE...PLAN TO GO WITH A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC FCST THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS INDICATED. MODELS BEGINNING TO NARROW IN ON A SOLN WHICH
SUGGESTS BLYR WINDS INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN AGAIN TO PROBABLY
AROUND 15 KT BY LATE SAT BUT SEAS MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IF WINDS ARE SLOWER TO DECREASE. MODELS
OFTEN ARE TOO QUICK TO DECREASE WINDS IN NE FLOW. WILL GO WITH WINDS
UP TO 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT AS THINK IT SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY
SHORT PERIOD OF STRONGER CONDITIONS. CAA IS NOT REAL STRONG WHICH
MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR BUT WATER TEMPS ARE QUITE WARM AND ANY
COOLER AIR OVER THE WATER SHOULD MIX EFFICIENTLY.

FCSTID = 13
CHS   69  86  68  79 /  40  50  30  10
SAV   70  86  69  79 /  40  50  40  20
CHL   73  81  71  78 /  40  50  30  10
NBC   70  87  69  78 /  40  50  30  10
RBW   68  87  66  80 /  40  50  30  10

.CHS...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

PY/SF