Damaging Wind in New York, April 17, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
245 PM EDT WED APR 17 2002

ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH MID TO UPPER
80S GENERALLY THE RULE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. THIS
WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN STILL FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.  LINE OF SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM MOVED
ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND HAD WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY EARLY
THIS AFTN, BUT NOW A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND TSRA DEVELOPING OVER SE
ONTARIO AND ALONG EASTERN LAKE ERIE SHORELINE. ALTHOUGH ETA
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTN WITH LIFTED
INDICES -3 TO -5 AND CAPES 1300-1500 J/KG, THE ATMOSPHERE IS CAPPED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. BUT WITH APPROACHING WEAK WAVE AND
LINGERING INSTABILITY THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH SOME WEAK LIFT
PROGGED MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA, WILL CONTINUE THE
LOW CHC POP FOR SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH WARM TEMPS. WINDS FROM A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION WILL ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. STILL, 850MB TEMPS
ONLY ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS VALUES. WILL TREND
CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV HIGHS FOR THURSDAY, GENERALLY AROUND
80/LOWER 80S.

STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTN. LIKELY POPS STILL LOOK GOOD WITH CHC
THUNDERSTORMS.

.BGM...NONE.

JML