Hail and Damaging Wind in Kansas, April 17 to 18, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 PM CDT WED APR 17 2002

MAIN FCST CONCERNS: POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TONIGHT AND THEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE ETA MODEL FOR THIS RUN, ALTHOUGH WL TREND
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TIMING INTO THE FCST AREA,
EXPECTING IT TO ARRIVE SOMETIME THURSDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT: POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION TO FIRE JUST EAST OF
DRYLINE FROM CNTRL KS SWD THRU WRN OK IN MODERATE TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE THAT LOW LVL CONVERGENCE
WL BE BETTER IN WRN OK LATE THIS PM/EVE ALLOWING STORMS TO FIRE
THERE. 0-6 KM MEAN WINDS SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD REACH S-CNTRL
KS. LOCAL HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK DETAILS THREATS. OVERNIGHT, POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL T-STORMS BECOMING MORE ELEVATED WITH HAIL
THREAT. WL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS AREAWIDE. WENT ABOVE THE WARMER
MAV...AND CONSIDERABLY ABOVE THE FWC GIVEN BREEZY S WINDS/HIER DWPTS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT: INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF WRN
U.S. UPR TROF...INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WL SEND A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT SEWD TOWARD KANSAS. ATMOSPHERE WL BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE...WITH SFC DRYLINE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE FM CNTRL KS SWD
INTO S-CNTRL KS, AND HIGHS OF 85-90. MODELS APPEAR TO UNDERPLAY SFC
DWPTS AND OVERALL INSTABILITY. WL PROBABLY BE A TRIPLE PT FORMING
SOMEWHERE IN CNTRL KS JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
COMING IN DURING THE EVENING. WOULD ANTICIPATE LOW LVL WINDS BACKING
A BIT MORE THAN CURRENT MODEL INDICATIONS, WHICH WL ACT TO INCREASE
0-3 KM SHEAR. IN ADDITION, UPR LVL JET STREAK OF AOA 100 KTS WL BE
OVER KS. THUS, THINKING ISOLD-WDLY SCT SUPERCELLS WL INITIATE LATE
PM OR EARLY EVE, WITH ACTIVITY THEN MERGING/CONGEALING INTO CLUSTERS
OR MORE LIKELY A LINEAR MCS ALONG FRONT DURING EVENING HRS, AS
925-850 SRLY LOW LVL JET KICKS IN. WL KEEP 50-60 PCT POPS GOING FOR
THURS NIGHT.

FRIDAY: FRONT SURGES SWD OUT OF KS WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS FINALLY
ADVECTING COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IN. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS TO
PERSIST ESP IN SRN ZONES CLOSER TO 850 FRONT. WL MAINTAIN 20-40 POPS
FROM NW-SE BUT CNTRL KS WL PROBABLY DRY OUT BY PM. HIGHS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE 60S PER CURRENT FCST, AFTER ASSESSING LOW LVL
THICKNESSES AND EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

PRECIP CHANCES LOOK DOUBTFUL FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY GIVEN HOW FAR THE
AVN PUSHES THE COLD FRONT. WL MAINTAIN 20 POPS MOSTLY TO BLEND IN
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. LOWERED MINS SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY UP IN
CNTRL KS WHERE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS PSBL. OTHERWISE KEPT HIGHS
AROUND 60 TO MID 60S SAT.

SUN-WED: MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH SOLUTIONS FOR
THIS WEEKEND, WITH RESPECT TO THE UPR TROF EJECTING OUT OF THE SWRN
STATES SUNDAY, AND HOW FAR S THE FRONT WL GET. THE FRONT OF CONCERN
IS THE ONE COMING IN THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THE LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS SUPPORT THE FURTHER S FRONTAL POSITIONING ON THE AVN/MRF
SAT-SUN AS THE TROF LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER, ACCORDING TO THE NCEP
CENTRAL CLUSTER EXTENDED DISCUSSION, HIER UPR HEIGHTS IN THE ERN
U.S. RIDGE MAY FAVOR THE TROF LIFTING OUT A BIT FURTHER N THAN THE
MRF. SO WOULD ACTUALLY LEAN WITH THE 00Z UKMET WHICH DID NOT LIFT
THE FRONT AS FAR N AS THE ECMWF/CANADIAN BUT HAS ITS UPR TROF
LIFTING OUT MORE NEUTRAL/NEG TILTED AND MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF.
SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING SUNDAY 30/40% MNLY
SRN ZONES FOR NOW. OTHERWISE ONLY MODEST CHANGES TO TEMPS. PLANNING
TO DROP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF FCST MONDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BEHIND EXITING UPR TROF. NEXT UPR TROF DIGS INTO THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS FM THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT A CHC OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

FCSTID = 9
ICT   68  90  55  65 /  30  20  60  30
HUT   67  90  52  64 /  30  20  60  30
EWK   68  90  54  64 /  30  20  60  30
EQA   68  91  55  65 /  30  20  60  30
WLD   67  90  58  66 /  30  20  60  30
RSL   64  90  45  60 /  30  20  50  20
GBD   65  90  48  61 /  30  20  50  20
SLN   67  90  50  63 /  30  20  60  20
MPR   68  90  54  64 /  30  20  60  30
CFV   67  86  62  68 /  20  20  70  40
CNU   68  86  58  68 /  20  20  70  30
K88   68  86  57  68 /  20  20  60  30

.ICT...
KS...NONE.