Lightning Strike in Massachusetts, April 17, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT WED APR 17 2002

...OFFICIAL HEAT WAVE LIKELY (60 PCT CHC) SPRINGFIELD HARTFORD BY 18Z
THU...

NOTE 449 AM PKG: DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVING PRODUCTS IN EDT... THE
GFE/RDF/ZFP HAS NO UPDATES FROM YDY AFTN FCST PACKAGE FOR NEXT
TUESDAY. THAT WILL BE TAKEN CARE OF LATER TODAY.  WE DID INCORPORATE
THE EC/AVN AND YDYS 00Z/16 MRF ENSEMBLE SUGGESTIONS FOR THE SAT-MON
PRD.

WHILE THE CT RVR IN SNE RISES TO NEAR FLOOD LEVEL DUE TO UPSTREAM
DRENCHING RAINS AND SNOWMELT IN NNE THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE DRY SPELL
IN SNE CONTS AND WITH THAT AN APRIL HEAT WAVE (DAILY MEANS AT LEAST
+20F BOTH TDY/THU BDL-CEF REGION) AND PROVOCATIVE CONVECTION
PRODUCING BACKDOOR APPROACHING MHT-BOS BY 22Z.

AWARE THAT 3 CONSEC DAYS OF CEF/BDL HEAT WAVE SHAKY AND SO
PROBABILISTICALLY RATED IT 60 PCT ATTM. AVN SFC TEMPS LIKELY WAY
UNDERDONE. 06Z ETA NOW UP TO 86F FOR BDL THURSDAY 18Z. WITH DECENT
SS...SHUD FLIRT WITH 90...HOWEVER...NO GUARENTEE...ESP SINCE
1000-500K IS 566 AND MWN STRUGGLING TO RUN WARM TODAY.

SO THE CCF/RDF/ZFP FCST HAS PUSHED THE EXTREMES TO THE LIMIT BOTH
TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH WNW SFC WIND IDEAL FOR THE HEAT AS DEPICTED
TDY.

06Z ETA DOES INDICATE OUR GOING FCST MAY B TOO WARM TOMORROW FOR
ORH-PVD NEWD THRU BOS AND N SHORE 09Z-21Z THU BUT NO CHG ATTM (EARLY
THU LOWS AND THU DAYTIME HIGHS).

MODEL CHOICE: DISPARATE TEMP/QPF SOLNS ETA/AVN WITH CONVECTIVE
              SCHEME POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE QPF OUTCOMES OF ETA/AVN
              NEXT 72 HRS. 06Z ETA WAS BEEFIER ON QPF LATE TDY.

00Z/17 OP MEX MOS HAS THE NUMBERS WAS LOOKING FOR AT BOS/BDL TDY
(89/95)...WARMEST OF ALL THE AVBL MOS WHICH IS BIASED COOL DUE TO
CLIMO... BANKING ON 100 PCT SS DURING 17-20Z TO DO THE FCST #S
TDY.

FWX: SOMEWHAT ENHANCED EXPECTED THIS AFTN WITH GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20-
     25 KTS AS SOUNDINGS LINK TO NR 750 MB AT 18Z FROM EEN SW TO
     PSF.  RECENT RAINS HELP GREENUP BUT EVAP/DRYING WAS SUBSTANTIAL
     YDY AND SO THE CONCERN IS ENHANCED. SEE FWFBOS FOR DISC AND #S.

SVR RISK: LOOK FOR VIL 45 FOR APPROACHING SVR (TROP ARD 40K).
          SKYWARN ASSISTANCE MAY B NEEDED NH 11/12 AND MA 4>7 AFTR
          330 PM EDT.

TDY: TEMPS IN VLYS FROM NR EEN TO ORE-FIT-CEF-BDL WILL RISE TO BTWN
     90-95 PROBABLY SMASHING RECORDS AT BDL AND BLV EQUAL OR EXCEED
     AT ALL OTHER SNE SITES THIS AFTN WITH NR 90 BY NOON  MAX
     HEATING PRODUCES WNW GUSTS 20-25 KTS 17-22Z. 21Z SREF INDICATES
     WE SHUD RUN A 50 POP MHT REGION TO 30 POP BVY LATE TDY/ERLY
     TNGT.  CONVECTIVE TEMP IS ABT 93. THIS AND APPROACHING CF
     SHUD SPARK TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY MHT-NEWBURYPORT AXIS. INDICIES
     ARE RATHER UNSTABLE AND IF STORMS FORM...LOOK FOR ISO G45KT.
     THIS CUD B SMW MATERIAL FOR BOS HARB NWD.

TNGT: USING 00Z/06Z ETA TRENDS AS THE PRIMARY GUIDE ON PROGRESS OF
      BACKDOOR.  ST/DENSE FOG LIKELY TO ROLL INTO COASTAL ERN MA
      TO POSSIBLY MHT-ASH TOO.  LEFTOVR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS NE MA
      AND SW NH EARLY TONIGHT. MAY NOT GET BLO 63 TNGT AT BDL/CEF?

THU: HEAT WITH NR 90F HIGHS CEF-BDL CONTD WNW SFC WIND THERE..BUT
     FCST IS LESS DETERMINISTIC ORH HILLS EWD WHERE BACKDOOR
     LOCATION DEFINES THE STRONGLY CONTRASTED SFC TEMP PATTERN.
     BLV ST/DENSE FOG VCNTY CQX-PVC-BOS-BVY NWD.  CUD SEE 2PM TEMPS
     RANGE FROM 58F BOS TO 89 BDL.  RIGHT NOW 06Z ETA PUSHES
     BACKDOOR TO ORH ARD 07Z AND THEN TRIES TO BLOW IT OUT
     AT 15Z BEFORE PUNCHING W OF ORH ARD 20Z..

THU NITE: BACKDOOR WITH LAST WWD PUSH AT LEAST TO AFN-ORH POSS
          TO CT RVR VLY BY DAWN FRI?

FRI: MEANS STILL ABV OR WELL ABV NORMAL (+5 TO 15F) DESPITE
     FOG/ST COOLNESS ERN MA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WELL GO FOR
     STG CHC OR LIKELY QPF EEN-CEF WITH CHC ELSEWHERE. ETA CONTS
     WITH 24C FOR 18Z FRI CT RVR VLY BUT ONLY 12C CQX SO FCSTG A
     STG GRADIENT IN TEMPS.

FRI NITE: MILD AND PROB DRY...BUT KEPT CHC POP GOING.

SAT: MEANS STILL +5 TO +10 NORMAL IN WNW SFC FLOW TRANSITION DAY.
     DRY AND P OR M/S

SUN: NEAR NORMAL TEMPS? BLV AVN IS TOO AGGRESSIVE ON CAA WITH ECMWF
     NOT NEARLY SO COLD. CONTINUITY IN GOING FCST WILL LEAD TO WARMER
     THAN EXPECTED NEW 00Z/17 MEX.

MON: THE CHILLIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SUN/MON.

QPF: WARY OF FCSTG TOO MUCH IN THIS PATTERN. BLV BEST CHC FOR
     WDSRPD BENEFICIAL QPF (1/2) NEXT 7 DAYS IS SOMETIME NEXT
     MON/TUE?

CLI: DELETED PVD .01 YDY ARD 12Z (FOG CONDENSATE)

LISTED RECORD HIGHS WHICH ARE THREATENED FOR EQUAL OR EXCEED:

        BOS      BDL       ORH      PVD
4/17    82/1976  92/1976   87/1976  93/1976
4/18                                86/1976

.BOX...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

DRAG