Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, April 17, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
238 PM CDT WED APR 17 2002

DAYS 1-2...
THE FORECAST PROBLEMS OF THE DAY IS HOW LONG WILL WINDS STAY UP IN
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT, AND WHERE/WHEN TO HAVE POPS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 19Z SHOWED A WARM FRONT HAD SURGED BACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH CWA BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 17Z AND 19Z.  WINDS WERE
INCREASING WELL INTO ADVISORY LEVELS EACH HOUR.  AS THE GRAVITY
RIPPLES SPIN DOWN OFF THE ROCKIES AND SPILL OUT INTO THE PLAINS OF
WESTERN KANSAS, THINK WINDS WILL KEEP UP PAST MIDNIGHT.  PLAN TO
EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY ALL AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.  WINDS SPEEDS
MAY SLACKEN BEFORE THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, AND WILL LET NEXT SHIFT OR
TWO DROP OR MODIFY AS NEEDED.

THE MODELS ALL INITIALIZED WELL, WITH THE ETA/AVN BEING THE BEST AND
CLOSEST TO THE ACTUAL 12Z UPPER AIR CHARTS.  WILL FOLLOW THE ETA FOR
THE MOST PART WHICH KEEPS SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25KTS THROUGH
12Z.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO START ENTERING THE SCENE LATE THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT DDC CWA TO REMAIN IN WARM AIR
THROUGH MAX HEATING OF THE DAY.  WILL GO WITH NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST AND
NEAR 80 NORTHWEST FOR HIGH TEMPS.

FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT.  FOR NOW, PLAN FOR 20 POPS FOR CONVECTION ABOUT EASTERN
2/3RDS CWA.  THEN FRIDAY, AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND COLD AIR INTRUDES ON
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, WILL GO WITH 30 POPS SOUTHEAST, AND 20 POPS
ELSEWHERE.  HIGH TEMPS TO BE 25-30 DEGS COOLER ON FRIDAY THAN
THURSDAY, WHICH COULD CATCH A FEW PEOPLE BY SURPRISE.

DAYS 3-7...
THE GENERAL TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
ALL MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A COOL START TO THE WEEKEND,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARMUP EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH THE KEEPING OUR COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY WITH THE
NEXT MORE SIG S/WV MOVING FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL LIKELY BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA NEAR OUR COLD FRONT...STILL APPEARS THAT CHC POPS
STILL LOOK IN ORDER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA GIVEN 7-5H LAPSE RATES AND
MID LVL MOISTURE. 12Z AVN SUGGESTING 45 TO 55 FOR HIGHS SATURDAY
STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY IF WE GET SOME CLOUDS
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

AS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...GIVEN THE HT TENDENCIES OVER THE NRN
PACIFIC, A CUT OFF LOW NW OF HAWAII, AND HINTS OF A REVERSE PNA
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE SW
CONUS. ALL MODELS HINTING AT THIS BUT THE ECMWF WAS THE STRONGEST
WITH THIS FEATURE. AT THIS TIME WILL TREND IN THIS DIRECTION WHICH
WILL RESULT ANOTHER WARMUP EARLY IN THE WEEK AS A LEE TROF DEVELOPS
AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING OCCURS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR MID
WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE PLAINS. W/NW FLOW HOWEVER
SHOULD INHIBIT ANOTHER SIG COOL DOWN BUT WILL TRIM TEMPS BACK
TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   47  77  42  55 /   0   0   0  20
GCK   47  77  42  55 /   0   0   0  20
EHA   46  79  44  54 /   0   0   0  20
LBL   51  82  47  56 /   0   0  10  20
HYS   50  85  46  56 /   0   0  20  20
P28   54  90  49  59 /  20   0  20  30

.DDC...WND ADVSY TONIGHT ALL CWA.
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-

BURKE/BURGERT

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-180600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1107 AM CDT WED APR 17 2002

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER STRONG
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT WILL
ADVANCE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, RESULTING IN
STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING.  WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH BY NOON, AND THEN
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN SPEED BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM CDT.  SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE FROM 25 TO 30 MPH, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.
THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

THESE WINDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.  BLOWING DUST MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES SUDDENLY AT TIMES,
SO BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN DRIVING CONDITIONS.  SECURE ANY
LOOSE OR LIGHTWEIGHT ITEMS OUTDOORS WHICH MAY GET BLOWN AROUND
EASILY.

THE LAST SCHEDULED STORM IDENTIFICATION AND SPOTTER TRAINING SESSION
THIS SEASON WILL BE TOMORROW EVENING.  IT WILL BE ON THURSDAY APRIL
18TH, AT 7 PM CDT AT KISMET IN SEWARD COUNTY, AT THE PAVILION ON
MAIN STREET.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc

BURKE