Hail in Nebraska, October 1, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
245 AM CDT TUE OCT 01 2002

FCST CHALLENGES ARE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP AND
TEMPERATURE CHALLENGES TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  NEARLY
STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS FROM KHLC TO KDSM AT 05Z.  SCATTERED
ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW FORMING ON THIS BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA
AS 850MB MOIST FLOW INTERSECTS IT.  SFC DEWPOINTS NOTED AROUND 60
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND MID 40S TO THE NORTH.  EXPECT THIS
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS 850MB
WINDS REMAIN BACKED.  TO THE WEST...MAIN UPPER LOWS OVER SRN
MANITOBA AND WASHINGTON WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS THEY EVOLVE/PUSH EAST.  MAIN COLD FRONT AT 05Z IS
FROM KCDR TO KABR.

BOTH ETA AND AVN HOLD OFF THE COLD FROPA UNTIL AROUND 00Z AS NEXT
PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST.  THIS PLACES
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.  LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...A SURFACE LOW OVER KS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT...HELPING FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA.  SOUTHEASTERN HALF MAY ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
SEVERE WX DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN BE
ATTAINED THIS AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MAIN LOW SHIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.  ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS
LOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.    SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF PRECIP ARE INDICATED AS PIECES OF ENERGY EJECT FROM THIS
LOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  STRONG OVERRUNNING AND PLENTY OF UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL AID THESE ROUNDS OF PRECIP.  SFC BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE AREA...IF NOT DIRECTLY OVER IT.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE ON DAILY TEMPERATURES IS NOT HIGH...AS PRECIP
AND CLOUD COVER IMPACT THE FORECAST HEAVILY.  IT APPEARS THE CWA
WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FOR WED AND THU...SO NOT
STRAY FROM CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS.

FLOW ON FRIDAY FINALLY SWEEPS THIS SYSTEM EAST AND ENDS PRECIP
CHANCES...UNTIL NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY.

.OMA...NONE
ERVIN

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-012300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1210 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE
FROM THESE STORMS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING THE WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM AROUND OMAHA EAST INTO IOWA WITH A COLD
FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO THIS EVENING. THE UNSTABLE
AIR...THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTS...AND AN INCREASING WIND MAXIMUM
MOVING OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. THESE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS...HOWEVER THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SHIFT TOWARD SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A COLUMBUS NEBRASKA TO
ONAWA IOWA LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR
LATE THURSDAY INTO MID DAY FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATIC
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/OAX OR AT WEATHER.GOV (LOWER CASE)

CHERMOK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1203 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0152 AM    ALVO                      NE   1.75 INCH HAIL
10/01/02   CASS                           REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

0213 AM    LINCOLN                   NE   .88 INCH HAIL
10/01/02   LANCASTER                      REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT AT 27TH AND
                                          HIGHWAY 2.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1216 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0258 AM    2 SE TABOR                IA   .88 INCH HAIL
10/01/02   FREMONT                        REPORTED BY PUBLIC.
                                          ALSO 50 MPH WINDS
                                          ESTIMATED.  SOME CROP
                                          DAMAGE.

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1236 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1221 AM    9 N TOBIAS                NE   1.75 INCH HAIL
10/01/02   SALINE                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

1247 AM    2 E DORCHESTER            NE   1 INCH HAIL
10/01/02   SALINE                         REPORTED BY COOPERATIVE
                                          OBSERVER.

1253 AM    3 E DORCHESTER            NE   .75 INCH HAIL
10/01/02   SALINE                         REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

1258 AM    4 W CRETE                 NE   .75 INCH HAIL
10/01/02   SALINE                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

0152 AM    ALVO                      NE   1.75 INCH HAIL
10/01/02   CASS                           REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

0213 AM    LINCOLN                   NE   .88 INCH HAIL
10/01/02   LANCASTER                      REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT AT 27TH AND
                                          HIGHWAY 2.

0258 AM    2 SE TABOR                IA   .88 INCH HAIL
10/01/02   FREMONT                        REPORTED BY PUBLIC.
                                          ALSO 50 MPH WINDS
                                          ESTIMATED.  SOME CROP
                                          DAMAGE.

1042 AM    OMAHA                     NE   .88 INCH HAIL
10/01/02   DOUGLAS                        REPORTED BY PUBLIC AT
                                          132ND AND MAPLE.

MILLER