Flash Flooding and Hail in Texas, October 1, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
340 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2002

SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED IN ERN CO INTO NWRN KS. EXPECT THIS FEATURE
TO CONTINUE MOVG SLOWLY SEWD TNGT AND TRACKING THRU FCST AREA BY
SOMETIME WED AFTN. MEANWHILE...UPPER LVL TROF OVER WRN US CONTINUES
TO DIG THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE NEAR 150W CAUSING AMPLIFICATION
DOWNSTREAM. ALL MODELS SIMILAR IN CLOSING OFF LOW IN SRN NV...THEN
SLOWLY DRAGGING IT EWD THEN NEWD TO CNTRL NM AS AN OPEN WAVE BY THU
AFTN...FINALLY PUNCHING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN HI PLAINS BY LATE THU
EVENING. AS FOR FRONTAL TIMING AND HANDLING...PREFER THE FURTHER
SWD POSITION OFFERED BY ETA MODEL THRU 60 HRS. CHCS FOR PRECIP TNGT
THRU THU EVE LOOK PLAUSIBLE BASED ON ABV UA PATTERN. IT APPEARS THAT
SOME SORT OF PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY ZIP ACROSS LATE THU AFTN AND
EVENING AS THE UPPER LVL TROF RACES ENE. AT SOME POINT WE MAY SEE
SOME WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT TIMING HARD TO PINDOWN THIS FAR OUT.
RAPIDLY IMPROVING WX LATER THU NIGHT...WITH DRY WX FRI AND SAT.

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF. NOGAPS CLOSES OFF ANOTHER LOW IN THE GTBASIN
AND SWRN US FOR DAYS 5 AND 6 WHILE MRF HAS OPEN WAVE. LATEST 12Z AVN
HAS SHOWN A MARKED TREND TOWARDS A STRONGER DIGGING SYSTEM LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF IN SRN ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS
REGION...THEN SLIDING ACROSS SRN HI PLAINS DAY 6. THE LATEST TRENDS
OFFERED BY 12Z AVN SUGGEST IT MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING. FOR NOW...WILL
GO WITH A MIDDLE ROAD PICTURE AND BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT DOWN
SATURDAY EVENING...WITH MORE CLOUDS FOR SUN THRU TUE. NO PRECIP
MENTIONED AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER CONTINUITY AND MODEL TRENDS ARE
ESTABLISHED. PRELIM VALUES FOLLOW.

FCSTID = 02

AMARILLO    59 72 54 71 / 40 40 40 30
BEAVER      60 69 49 69 / 60 60 40 30
BOISE CITY  54 68 48 65 / 40 40 40 30
BORGER      58 69 51 70 / 40 40 40 30
BOYS RANCH  58 72 54 69 / 40 40 40 30
CANYON      59 72 54 71 / 40 40 40 30
CLARENDON   63 74 56 72 / 40 40 40 30
DALHART     56 68 50 66 / 40 40 40 30
GUYMON      56 68 49 68 / 40 40 40 30
HEREFORD    59 73 54 71 / 40 40 40 30
LIPSCOMB    61 69 51 70 / 60 60 40 30
SHAMROCK    65 75 55 72 / 40 40 40 30
WELLINGTON  66 75 56 74 / 40 40 40 30

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ANDRADE

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-021100-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ALSO...HEAVY RAINS MAY PRESENT LOCALIZED
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

COCKRELL