Marine Thunderstorm Winds in Lake St. Clair, April 12, 2002

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
309 PM EDT FRI APR 12 2002

SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR OSC TO BEH THIS AFTERNOON.
PUSHING THIS FRONT ACROSS CWA THIS EVENING WILL BE MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR THIS PACKAGE. MESOETA SHOWS THE FRONT ACTUALLY /BACKDOORING/
INTO CWA ACROSS THE THUMB AS IT SLIDES DOWN THE COLD WATERS OF LAKE
HURON...THEN OOZES ACROSS THE CWA. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE UPTICK
WITHIN THE LAST HOUR SO. THIS CONVECTION OCCURRING IN REGION OF BEST
SURFACE THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING FROM DFI TO FNT. THIS AXIS WILL SLIP
SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...NOT
CLEARING THE CWA UNTIL UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COINCIDENT WITH
THIS MOISTURE AXIS...MSAS DATA YIELDING SURFACE BASED LIS OF -2 TO
-3C AND LAPS DATA SHOWING CAPES TO 1 KJ/KG. SURFACE CONVERGENCE
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. WILL CALL FOR SHOWERS AND CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
NORTHWEST CWA...AND SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE ENDING
BY EARLY EVENING NORTH HALF AND INTO THE EVENING SOUTH HALF.

WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MID SATURDAY
MORNING FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. FRONT WILL HANG UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH WEAK SURFACE WAVES TRAVERSING WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSIT AREA WITH JUST
ENOUGH DPVA TO WARRANT A CHANCE POPS. CURIOUSLY...THE MESOETA PUSHES
DEW POINTS WELL UP INTO THE 50S TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THIS ON
NORTHEAST WINDS. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE PRODUCTS /INCLUDING THE
EXPERIMENTAL ETA MOS/ SUPPORTS DEW POINTS RETURNING INTO THE 50S
TOMORROW.

MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS SLACKEN AND SKIES ARE CLEAR. FOR NOW WILL JUST CALL
IT PATCH FOG.

SUNDAY...MESOETA IS ONCE AGAIN AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING DEW POINTS UP
INTO THE 50S WHICH IN TURN SUPPORTS CAPE VALUES PUSHING 1KJ/KG.
AGAIN...NONE OF THE MOS GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...
INCLUDING THE EXPERIMENTAL ETA GUIDANCE. IN ANY CASE...WITH 950MB
WINDS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND NO SYNOPTIC
SCALE FRONTS VICINITY OF CWA...WILL OPT FOR A DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED...
IN THE MEAN...A BROAD 500MB RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST WITH A DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. IN THE DAILIES...SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD SOUTHEAST HIGH TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY FLATTENS THE HIGH...A SHARP
TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROGRESSIVELY COOL. MRF/ETA-XX INDICATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
CWA ON TUESDAY WITH CAPES TO 1000 J/KG AND LIS TO -4C...AS BERMUDA
HIGH PUMPS WARM...MOIST AIR INTO THE CWA. GIVEN INSTABILITY FACTORS
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
LACK OF INITIATING BOUNDARY WILL KEEP CHANCE IN THE LOW CATEGORY.
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES CWA WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THEN SHARP 500MB TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS ON
FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

.DTX...NONE.

OKEEFE

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