Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, April 12 to 13, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1202 PM CDT FRI APR 12 2002

12Z KFWD SOUNDING INDICATING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
CAPES OF 1250 J/KG ATTM. WIND PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST FAVORABLE STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES BUT WITH RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS.
DAYTIME HEATING WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WILL AID TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST TIER COUNTIES TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED ZFP TO
REFLECT AN INCREASE IN POPS AND EXPANSION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.FWD...NONE.

48

.AVIATION...
TSTRMS MOVING SE ACROSS THE RED RIVER TODAY...AT PRESENT...WILL
MOVE BY THE METROPLEX TO THE NE. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP AT METROPLEX
AIRPORTS BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD SHIFTS WINDS TO EASTERLY
COMPONENT. COULD ALSO SEE TSTRMS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY MOVING SE BUT FOR NOW WILL OMIT THEM FROM FORECASTS.
BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH AND UPSLOPE OVER THE BOUNDARY
WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN OVERNIGHT. NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL SEND
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS SE TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY. FOR WACO...
LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT CLEARING SAT. 82

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-122100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1145 AM CDT FRI APR 12 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM...KILLEEN..TO WACO...TO SULPHUR SPRINGS. THIS INCLUDES THE
DALLAS FORT WORTH METROPLEX. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS LARGE
HAIL...WITH SOME HAILSTONES LARGER THAN GOLFBALLS POSSIBLE...AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

LATE THIS MORNING...A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. TO THE SOUTH OVER TEXAS...THE ATMOSPHERE WAS
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
OKLAHOMA STORMS TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SPREAD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO NORTH TEXAS. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 BEFORE 2 PM. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING
SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.