Hail in Texas, April 12 to 13, 2002

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
225 PM CDT FRI APR 12 2002

INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED WELL SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE FLOW IS NOW RESPONDING TO THE SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN COLORADO AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS NOW. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AS THEY DO.  DIFFLUENT THICKNESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AND MOIST SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH THE SEVERE THREAT THAT SPS
HAS LAID OUT IN THE DAY ONE AND DAY TWO OUTLOOKS. SHORT WAVE SHOULD
ONLY SLOWLY DRAG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...SO WILL
LINGER SOME HIGHER POPS INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE MOST FAVORED
TONIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH HIGHER POPS THERE.

SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS PER SWODY2...HOWEVER IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING WE CAN GET DURING THE DAY AND HOW
MANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES THERE ARE.

THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GO DOWN FOR SUNDAY AS LEE-SIDE
TROUGH GETS ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
AROUND...AND WITH STRONG HEATING...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION.

WE WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER FLOW GOES
FROM A WEAK ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND TO A MUCH FASTER SOUTHWEST FLOW
BY MID NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE PANHANDLES WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THIS TROUGH. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN A REINFORCING SHOT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST WHERE IT
IS AND WE WILL ADD FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AS WELL.

A FEW NUMBERS TO PONDER:

AMA 51/71 50/80 51 642
DHT 48/71 47/79 48 +32
BVR 52/70 51/80 52 +52

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

GOEHRING