Flash Flooding and Hail in Indiana, April 12, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
145 PM EST FRI APR 12 2002

FCST CHALLENGE CONTS TO BE PINPOINTING THE TIMING OF THE APRCHG CD
FNT THROUGH OUR FA THIS AFT/TNGT AND EXACTLY WHERE IT WL STALL
OUT ON SATURDAY. FNT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FM LK MI ACRS NCNTRL AND WRN
IL. LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE BULK OF THE TRW ACTIVITY FM
RICHMOND TO GREENWOOD WITH MORE SCT ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA.
MEANWHILE...VSBL PIX SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS WHICH HAS
ALLOWED WRN COUNTIES TO REACH 70 DEGREES IN SPOTS WITH MID 60S COMMON
IN THE OVC.

MODELS ARE PRETTY CLOSE IN BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED CD FNT TO
ABOUT A FWA-HUF LINE BY 06Z TNGT AND THEN PUSHING IT TO ALONG OR JUST
S OF OUR SRN AND ERN COUNTIES BY SATURDAY MRNG. AVN/NGM DRAP IT ALONG
THE OH RVR BY 18Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE ETA HOLDS IT UP INVOF OF OUR
SRN AND ERN CWA. WL GO WITH STRENGTH IN NUMBERS...BUT AT ANY
RATE...LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD TNGT WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY (SW-NE AXIS
OF -2 TO -4 LIS DURING THE EVE AND -1 TO -2 OVRNGT) TO KEEP THUNDER
IN ALL NGT. THEN...NICE MID-UPR LVL DRYING MOVES ACRS SATURDAY MRNG
FM W-E AS A S/W MOVES ACRS IN THE FLAT FLOW DURING THE MRNG/EARLY
AFT. CU RULE INDICATING PLNTY OF CU DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ESP ACRS ERN
COUNTIES. WL ALSO KEEP A CHC OF TRWS IN FOR THE MRNG HOURS SE AND
THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS KICK UP AHEAD
OF THE S/W ELSEWHERE IN THE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE ATMS (BULLSEYE OF
-4 TO -6 LIS ACRS THE FA AT 18Z) BUT CHC APPEARS TOO LOW TO MENTION
ATTM. SHOULD BE SOME AFT CLRG ESP W AS THE LOW LVL MOIST THINS A
BIT...THE S/W WAVE MOVES INTO OH AND A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
SETTLES ACRS. TIME SECS WERE SHOWING AN INCRS IN HIGH LVL MOIST
SATURDAY NGT AHEAD OF A WK UPR LVL TROF...BUT PARTLY CLDY SHOULD
SUFFICE. ZONAL FLOW ON SUNDAY AND DRY TIME SECS FAVOR MORE SS THAN
MOS IS PREDICTING.

PREFER WARMER FWC/ETA TNGT WITH CLDS AROUND AND BASED ON UPSTREAM
TEMPS. MAV/FWC CLOSE ON SATURDAY AND APPEAR REASONABLE. ETA LOOKS TOO
HIGH WITH CLDS AROUND AND NW ALBEIT LGT WINDS. MOS SIMILAR AND
APPEARS REASONABLE SATURDAY NGT WITH INCRSG CIRRUS KEEPING TEMPS FM
FALLING TOO MUCH. FINALLY...PLNTY OF SS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER
FWC/MAV NUMBERS ON SUNDAY BUT NOT AS WARM AS ETA.

.IND...NONE.
KOCH

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-121900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1210 PM EST FRI APR 12 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
PRIOR TO THE STORMS DEVELOPING MAY ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.

KOCH