Hail in Kentucky, April 17, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EDT WED APR 17 2002

IN THE SHORT TERM:
FIRST MAJOR FCST PROBLEM DEALING WITH SCT TSTMS ACRS FA FOR A TIME
TONIGHT...VERY UNSTABLE AIR WI SFC BASED LIS -6 TO -8.  AREA OF TSTMS
ACRS SRN IN AND NRN KY STAYING BELOW SEVERE AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCHED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
EVENING. WILL KEEP TSTMS IN FCST INTO THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS.

SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AS PER PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

FOR THE LONGER TERM:
FORECASTS AND MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A RETURN TO
MORE NORMAL TEMPS WITH MORE CLOUDS AND OVERUNNING PRECIPITATION SETTING
DURING THIS WEEKEND.

SO..NEXT MAJOR FCST PROBLEM IS TIMING OF COLD FRONT INTO FA ON
FRIDAY. EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP WOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS
BELOW THE 80 DEGREE MARK. CURRENT FCST IS FOR THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NEW FWC TEMPS...THIS SEEMS BEST AND
WILL BE USED. BEYOND THIS...MODELS KEEP OVERUNNING CLOUDS AND PCPN
ACRS FA DURING SAT AND SUNDAY. BUT THIS IS HANDLED REASONABLY WELL
IN THE CURRENT FORECASTS.

LOCALLY:
THE THUNDER OVER LOUISVILLE FESTIVITIES WITH AIR SHOW AND
FIREWORKS ON SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND PCPN COULD BE A BIG PROBLEM
FOR THESE EVENTS.

.SDF...NONE

SCHOLZ