Damaging Wind in South Carolina, June 28, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
209 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2001

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LOW WL
SLOWLY EDGE W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...OR PERHAPS JUST STALL OVER
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. IN FACT...THE MAJOR INFLUENCE IN OUR WX THE
THE COUPLE DAYS WL NOT SO MUCH BE THE UPPER LOW...BUT AN AREA OF
TROFINESS OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS
FORMED AGAIN TDA UNDER THIS TROF...FROM CENTRAL FL N INTO THE
MIDLANDS. THE ETA AND AVN LIFT AN OCCASIONAL WEAK VORT N OUT OF THE
TROF AND ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

AS A RESULT...WE STAY IS A DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW FOR A QUITE A
WHILE. AS WAS THE CASE LAST NGHT...THIS MEANS THAT CONVECTION COULD
FIRE ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...THOUGH IT WL BE FAVORED IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING. WL GO 50 POPS MTNS AND 40 POPS ELSEWHERE NEXT TWO PERIODS
AND THEN JUST A 40 POP ALL ZONES. I AM SURE THAT AT SOME POINT OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS WE WL GET A CATEGORICAL MCS...BUT I CAN/T REALLY
SAY WHEN. HENCE THE RATHER HIGH CHANCE POPS.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS POSSIBLE FLOODING. PARTS OF THE MTNS ARE QUITE
WET NOW...W/3 HRLY FFG AS LOW AS 2 INCHES. WON/T ISSUE ANY KIND OF
WATCH...BUT ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO STRONGLY CONSIDER THE IDEA IF IT
LOOKS LIKE MCS DEVELOPING TO OUR SE MAKES IT INTO THE CWA.

FOR THE EXTENDED...THE LATEST AVN IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE DEVELOPING E COAST LONGWAVE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...THE AVN NOW HAS FROPA MON...A GOOD 2 DAYS
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS THINKING. WL NOT WEIGHT THE AVN SOLUTION
HEAVILY FOR NOW...AS OTHER TRENDS ARE POINTING TOWARD A SLOWER
FRONT...BUT WILL LOWER TEMPS A LITTLE DAYS 6 AND 7. WL KEEP CHANCE
POPS ALL 5 DAYS OF THE EXTENDED.

FCSTID = 14
GSP   67  88  69  89 /  40  40  40  40
AND   67  88  69  89 /  40  40  40  40
CLT   67  88  69  89 /  40  40  40  40
HKY   66  87  67  88 /  40  40  40  40
AVL   64  83  64  84 /  50  50  40  40

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

MCAVOY

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